Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Jarodm12]

Looks like very cold rain for the D-FW Metroplex. Only cold rain here in Houston (50 deg). Winter bad, summer good...

Based on what you're seeing what do you think winter weather accumulations in Durant Oklahoma will be ?

I have no idea. My head has been in the South Pacific with two cyclones there and the southern South China Sea with TS Pabuk (since 4:30 this morning). I only just glanced at the surface map for Texas. I don't even know where Durant, OK is. Does 3-6 inches sound good?

Haha love you brother sounds great to me! Now I'm gonna go take a Xanax and pray haha

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Ice caused a major accident with 18 wheeler and a car at 820/35 interchange 10 minutes ago in north Fort Worth.

This was on an on-ramp but not very far up on the ramp.

Edit: they have closed all ramps until sand can be adequately distributed.

[Jarodm12]

Ice caused a major accident with 18 wheeler and a car at 820/35 interchange 10 minutes ago in north Fort Worth.

This was on an on-ramp but not very far up on the ramp.

Not good they really ought to start putting out warnings now instead of being conservative the real time data and high res models warrant it and if course now people's lives are at risk.

[orangeblood]

Still a solid coating of ice all elevated non-road surfaces in TCU area Fort Worth, sitting at 31 F....big bust by all models

[CaptinCrunch]

Ice caused a major accident with 18 wheeler and a car at 820/35 interchange 10 minutes ago in north Fort Worth.

This was on an on-ramp but not very far up on the ramp.

Edit: they have closed all ramps until sand can be adequately distributed.

That's right there at the NWS FTW office off Northcross Rd. and they just removed the WWA from Tarrant and Johnson counties.

[wxman57]

Based on what you're seeing what do you think winter weather accumulations in Durant Oklahoma will be ?

I have no idea. My head has been in the South Pacific with two cyclones there and the southern South China Sea with TS Pabuk (since 4:30 this morning). I only just glanced at the surface map for Texas. I don't even know where Durant, OK is. Does 3-6 inches sound good?

Haha love you brother sounds great to me! Now I'm gonna go take a Xanax and pray haha

Note that I didn't look at any weather data for Durant - I just guessed 3-6 inches out of thin air.

[orangeblood]

Ice caused a major accident with 18 wheeler and a car at 820/35 interchange 10 minutes ago in north Fort Worth.

This was on an on-ramp but not very far up on the ramp.

Edit: they have closed all ramps until sand can be adequately distributed.

That's right there at the NWS FTW office off Northcross Rd. and they just removed the WWA from Tarrant and Johnson counties.

Yeah, I've been hearing similar reports on bridges, seems extremely pre-mature to let that advisory expire...what are they looking at ? Probably should stop looking at models and open their windows

[Ralph's Weather]

Ice caused a major accident with 18 wheeler and a car at 820/35 interchange 10 minutes ago in north Fort Worth.

This was on an on-ramp but not very far up on the ramp.

Edit: they have closed all ramps until sand can be adequately distributed.

That's right there at the NWS FTW office off Northcross Rd. and they just removed the WWA from Tarrant and Johnson counties.

And this is why you have to sometimes think outside of the model output box. This air mass has consistently overproduced so it is no surprise that is continues to do so. The flip side is also correct as we saw in the mid December storm. You have to follow real time data as well as model output.

[wxman57]

Speaking of how models have been performing (we are now), I posted a comparison of 500 mb flow in the 240hr forecast from the 12Z Dec. 26th ECMWF & GFS (original image here - http://wxman57.com/images/EC-GFS.JPG).

Here was my post:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=2730641#p2730641

Well, those two 240hr forecasts were for this Friday evening. Euro had a deep upper low over south TX, but the GFS had a trof much farther east with a ridge over Texas. Looking at the 60 hr EC & GFS forecasts today, the Euro was way off in the position of the upper low as it is now predicted to be over central Tennessee vs. south TX. GFS still has a trof there across the SE U.S, but may be too weak with the upper low. Euro now has a ridge over Texas Friday evening, as per the 10-day GFS on Dec. 26th.

Bottom line is that you should be very careful believing any forecast beyond 3-5 days. Models aren't handling the pattern well.

[CaptinCrunch]

Ice caused a major accident with 18 wheeler and a car at 820/35 interchange 10 minutes ago in north Fort Worth.

This was on an on-ramp but not very far up on the ramp.

Edit: they have closed all ramps until sand can be adequately distributed.

That's right there at the NWS FTW office off Northcross Rd. and they just removed the WWA from Tarrant and Johnson counties.

Yeah, I've been hearing similar reports on bridges, seems extremely pre-mature to let that advisory expire...what are they looking at ? Probably should stop looking at models and open their windows

can't open windows, they are iced shut

[HockeyTx82]

So NWS FWD has a hard call to make on marginal situations like this. If they forecast the sky is falling and nothing then that's bad. If they forecast nothing and something happens then people yell too. Either way as we all know people still have to know to take extra care when the possibility is there. As connected as we are in today's world I always wonder why I see that one college kid in shorts and a tshirt on a day like today. Blows my mind..... That being said the NWS has a job of keeping us safe but also setting realistic expectations. Sure in today's world we know about accidents like the one on 820. Take that back 10 years ago and no one on this board would know about it. We have access to real time information that a few years ago we never did. I think seems to add to people's reasoning as to why this or that when it comes to watches and warning for winter storms in Texas. Just my soap box rant.....

[rwfromkansas]

Latest NWS update discussion says all sites have above freezing temps...problem...that’s flat inaccurate. Not sure what they are looking at. Meacham and Alliance both 32.

They are talking about snow possibly tomorrow but otherwise just rain. Uh...my icing is getting worse.

[losf1981]

29 degrees. Feels like 21 in Wichita Falls. Awesome.

[Texas Snow]

this is the possible DFW snow timeframe discussion from from their aviation update

For the most part, lower level
temperatures will remain sufficiently warm to maintain all rain
precipitation types prior to 15z Thursday. However, there is a
good chance that the column will cool enough to produce a
rain/snow mixture, or perhaps even a total changeover to all snow
after 18z Thurs. At this point, have refrained from including any
mention of -SN at KDFW after 18z, but later forecasts will need to
assess this potential closely and include as necessary.

[HockeyTx82]

Latest NWS update discussion says all sites have above freezing temps...problem...that’s flat inaccurate. Not sure what they are looking at. Meacham and Alliance both 32.

They are talking about snow possibly tomorrow but otherwise just rain. Uh...my icing is getting worse.

Maybe DFW airport and Love Field? Not sure what TAF for the Aviation discussion means. Any pilots care to opine?

[wxman57]

Latest NWS update discussion says all sites have above freezing temps...problem...that’s flat inaccurate. Not sure what they are looking at. Meacham and Alliance both 32.

They are talking about snow possibly tomorrow but otherwise just rain. Uh...my icing is getting worse.

Maybe DFW airport and Love Field? Not sure what TAF for the Aviation discussion means. Any pilots care to opine?

I was an aviation forecaster from 1984-1998. TAF stands for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. See https://aviationweather.gov/static/help/taf-decode.php

It's a forecast of ceilings, winds, and visibility for pilots.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

So NWS FWD has a hard call to make on marginal situations like this. If they forecast the sky is falling and nothing then that's bad. If they forecast nothing and something happens then people yell too. Either way as we all know people still have to know to take extra care when the possibility is there. As connected as we are in today's world I always wonder why I see that one college kid in shorts and a tshirt on a day like today. Blows my mind..... That being said the NWS has a job of keeping us safe but also setting realistic expectations. Sure in today's world we know about accidents like the one on 820. Take that back 10 years ago and no one on this board would know about it. We have access to real time information that a few years ago we never did. I think seems to add to people's reasoning as to why this or that when it comes to watches and warning for winter storms in Texas. Just my soap box rant.....

You’re right of course, nws hasn’t been far off on the forecast so far, I do hope they are wrong about high temps today.

It is ironic, however, that the fw nws cancelled the wwa at a time when they could walk outside and see multiple accidents at the 35 820 interchange. That’s what watches are for, we know a warning isn’t required.

Of course they’re still working for free correct? I’m sure they’re short on non essential personnel with the shutdown continuing

[orangeblood]

Alright alright!!! 12Z Euro hinting at the same potential for later next week that the FV3 was showing last night....big Canadian HP coming down with a S/W coming out! Bears watching....

[orangeblood]

So NWS FWD has a hard call to make on marginal situations like this. If they forecast the sky is falling and nothing then that's bad. If they forecast nothing and something happens then people yell too. Either way as we all know people still have to know to take extra care when the possibility is there. As connected as we are in today's world I always wonder why I see that one college kid in shorts and a tshirt on a day like today. Blows my mind..... That being said the NWS has a job of keeping us safe but also setting realistic expectations. Sure in today's world we know about accidents like the one on 820. Take that back 10 years ago and no one on this board would know about it. We have access to real time information that a few years ago we never did. I think seems to add to people's reasoning as to why this or that when it comes to watches and warning for winter storms in Texas. Just my soap box rant.....

You’re right of course, nws hasn’t been far off on the forecast so far, I do hope they are wrong about high temps today.

It is ironic, however, that the fw nws cancelled the wwa at a time when they could walk outside and see multiple accidents at the 35 820 interchange. That’s what watches are for, we know a warning isn’t required.

They're model hugging, there's no doubt about that!! Temps haven't budged from 31 F at my local since early morning. Once the sun goes down, this could get bad if they don't take into account real time obs

[HockeyTx82]

Latest NWS update discussion says all sites have above freezing temps...problem...that’s flat inaccurate. Not sure what they are looking at. Meacham and Alliance both 32.

They are talking about snow possibly tomorrow but otherwise just rain. Uh...my icing is getting worse.

Maybe DFW airport and Love Field? Not sure what TAF for the Aviation discussion means. Any pilots care to opine?

I was an aviation forecaster from 1984-1998. TAF stands for Terminal Aerodrome Forecast. See https://aviationweather.gov/static/help/taf-decode.php

It's a forecast of ceilings, winds, and visibility for pilots.

Thanks wxman57, so when they say above freezing for TAFs in the discussion that's airport and airplane specific, not referring to the surrounding areas?