Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
344 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

...Winter Storm to Impact the Area Tonight through early Friday...

OKZ023>032-037>046-TXZ086-089-090-030545-
/O.UPG.KOUN.WS.A.0001.190103T0000Z-190104T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.WS.W.0001.190103T0000Z-190104T1200Z/
/O.CON.KOUN.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-190103T0000Z/
Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-Cleveland-
Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-
Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-Jefferson-Carter-Wichita-Archer-Clay-
Including the cities of Anadarko, Hinton, Yukon, Concho, El Reno,
Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud, Prague, Meeker,
Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell, Newcastle,
Blanchard, Norman, Moore, Shawnee, Seminole, Wewoka, Holdenville,
Wetumka, Frederick, Lawton, Duncan, Pauls Valley, Lindsay,
Wynnewood, Sulphur, Davis, Ada, Coalgate, Walters, Temple,
Waurika, Ringling, Ryan, Ardmore, Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls,
Archer City, Holliday, Lakeside City, Scotland, and Henrietta
344 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Freezing rain, sleet, and snow expected. Icing amounts up
to two tenths of an inch. Snow accumulations of 4 to 6 inches
possible, with locally higher amounts.

* WHERE...Portions of central, east central, southeast, southern
and southwest Oklahoma and northern Texas.

* WHEN...Light freezing rain and sleet expected through early this
evening. Sleet and snow developing late tonight through early
Thursday morning. Moderate to heavy snowfall expected most the
day Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel conditions will begin to deteriorate
this evening through late tonight, and worsen through the
morning hours Thursday. Travel will likely become very difficult
throughout the day Thursday into Thursday night.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible.

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can
be obtained by calling 5 1 1.

&&

$$

[snowballzzz]

Well, looks like only those of us North of Fort Worth have a small chance of something happening. Wichita Falls to Bowie looks to be the winners for tomorrow.

[rwfromkansas]

I don’t like that the snow will come in after noon or so. That will make accumulation harder.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I don’t know what models the ntta are looking at but they have snow plows stationed at every other exit from Lewisville to Frisco on the Sam Rayburn tollway and that’s not counting all of the brine trucks they had going. Whatever it is, I hope they’re right:)

[Lagreeneyes03]

Delkus is saying absolutely nothing but a stray flurry in DFW area other than far western and northwestern outreaches.

Not sure on the boards opinion of Pete, but always been my go-to Local

I like Pete, but I've figured out he's a model hugger.

[CaptinCrunch]

Steve McCauley
2 hrs ·

The precipitation has mostly changed over to just a cold rain with only a few pockets of freezing rain or freezing drizzle on the far western boundary of the rain shield. Everything continues to move to the northeast.

The transition to snow will take place tonight across the far western and northwestern portions of north Texas and will spread east during the day Thursday. The northern and western sections of the Metroplex should at least be able to see some snow, but as is often the case, the precipitation will be slowly winding down as soon as it gets cold enough to get much snow in the local area.

So even though this will NOT be a significant snow event for the ENTIRE DFW area, nevertheless, some light accumulations will be possible in north and western sections. Of course, farther to the north and west, more significant snowfall is still expected.

Stay tuned for detailed mapping.

[rwfromkansas]

Need the low to track further south, then we would all be in business in DFW.

[gpsnowman]

Rick Mitchell from NBC 5 does have some snow in his forecast for tomorrow afternoon. Did not mention accumulations but did mention we could have a period of all snow. Bring it.

[rwfromkansas]

Steve McCauley just posted a snow map very close to SPC SREF with accumulations ending basically right at my house and along I-35W.

[Shoshana]

Happy New Year!!! Meanwhile the ground is completely fully saturated here in Austin and the rain is coming down fairly hard. The intensity comes in waves but at its slowest, I would say it's still on the high end of the moderate side before increasing back up to heavy rainfall. Approaching 3 inches here at the aptly named Rain Cave.

Our rain gauge got run over but even without I can say there has been a lot of rain. It’s been raining part of the night and all day. We have sandy soil on top of clay so it absorbs a lot, but I think it’s saturated here too.

[Jarodm12]

The models are still coming in warm don't give up hope to those south of me for all we know the 00z data hammers everyone

[Texas Snow]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
436 PM CST Wed Jan 2 2019


.DISCUSSION...

...Winter Weather Event Rundown...
The main concern with the forecast package is the potential for
continuing winter weather across the Big Country and parts of
North Texas. Light freezing rain and/or freezing drizzle will
continue tonight mainly near and west of the US HWY 281 corridor.
A gradual transition to a sleet/snow mix is anticipated early
Thursday, mainly west of US HWY 81 and north of US HWY 380 towards
sunrise Thursday. Some of this snow may be heavy, with snowfall
totals in the 3" to 5" range and thus a Winter Storm Warning has
been issued for Young, Jack and Montague counties from much of
Thursday and into early Friday.

For areas northwest of a Comanche to Denton to Sherman/Denison
line...snowfall amounts will average between 1" and 3". South of
this line, a dusting of snow/sleet will be possible. All winter
weather should come to an end by early Friday.


...Impacts...
The greatest impacts to travel will be for areas
generally north of US HWY 380 and west of US HWY 81. Winter
weather may result in snow covered roads resulting in slick and
hazardous conditions. Travel will be hampered significantly across
this area, if not impossible. For areas north of I-20 and west of
the I-35/35W corridor (not including the heart of the D/FW
Metroplex), slick road conditions are possible, especially on
elevated surfaces. Areas southeast of a Comanche to Denton to
Sherman/Denison line should only see very minor impacts with
perhaps a few slick bridges and overpasses.

In addition to winter weather, pockets of flooding are likely to
continue this afternoon and into the evening hours. While rain
rates have remained below 1"/hr, the very cold soils and dormant
vegetation have proven to result in efficient runoff rates and
we`ve already fielded reports of road closures of mainly secondary
and tertiary thoroughfares. It`s probable that additional flood
issues will occur through the night.

...Forecast Uncertainty...
The forecast hinges on the track of the upper low to the west as
well as surface temperatures. At this time, confidence in the
track of the upper low is moderate given the decent model
agreement. Confidence in the temperature forecast is OK, but will
be something to monitor. If the tropospheric column is cooler or
warmer, some alterations to the snow/ice accumulation forecast
will need to be made. There also remains a risk for slightly more
convective elements which could help to bolster snow/ice amounts.
At this time, feel that there is a decent chance for some of these
elements across the Winter Storm Warning. If these elements are
more expansive in areal coverage, there could be some heftier
snowfall amounts outside of the Winter Storm Warning area.

...Meteorological Reasoning...
A very challenging forecast from a meteorological standpoint
exists across North Texas. A very potent upper low continues to
churn and nose eastward into the Pacific southwest. Slight
warming has commenced across much of the area as northerly winds
have weakened, shutting down the CAA. With sunset, temperatures
will likely hold steady or even fall slightly and it`s probable
that there won`t be much in the way of change temperature-wise
tonight. The exception would be for locations that experience
heavier bursts of frozen precipitation which may help to cool the
column some.

For tonight, the strong isentropic ascent that resulted in the
large rain shield should subside across East and Central Texas
resulting in it shrinking in areal coverage across our area. I`ve
lowered PoPs some after midnight across East and Central Texas.
During the overnight hours, the highest PoPs were confined to
areas west of I-35 as isentropic ascent ramps up quickly.
Steepening 700-500mb lapse rates ahead of the very deep PV anomaly
(1.5 PVU surface down to 590mb) should foster some convective
elements. The presence of convection would be two-fold for
sensible weather...1) quick accumulations of winter precipitation
(provided that it is cold enough) and 2) further cooling of the
column. At this time, it appears that this potential is greatest
west of the US HWY 281 corridor. For now, I`ll advertise freezing
rain until just after midnight, with a transition to snow/sleet.
If the convection is very deep (produces lightning), this
transition may occur a little sooner than advertised in the
forecast. Farther east of this line, it appears that temperatures
will be high enough such that only a cold rain falls, though we
will need to watch areas just east of the Sherman/Denison area for
any lingering freezing drizzle/light freezing rain.

As we near daybreak Thursday, it appears that the rain/freezing
rain and snow/sleet line will inch closer to the HWY 281
corridor. Forecast soundings show a decent isothermal layer just
above 0 C around ABI...SEP and SPS. This coupled with decent
omega (likely due to strong low-mid level frontogenesis) in the
dendritic growth zone should favor some heavy snowfall. It`s
possible that if NAM FGEN progs are to verify, a band of heavy
snow may extend to the south of the current Winter Storm Warning.
Some of the HREF members support heavier snowfall south of I-20
with snowfall output showing a potential for 2-5". For now, we
are comfortable with letting the Winter Weather Advisory handle
areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning, but we will need to
monitor this closely for travel along I-20.

Towards noon on Thursday, the upper low should scoot eastward,
cooling the column sufficiently such that a rain/snow mix is the
most likely p-type for a good portion of North Texas. Heavy snow
is still expected for areas along northwestern North Texas and
northern Big Country, but things should start to wind down here.
Closer towards the I-35 corridor, there could be some accumulating
snows, mainly north of HWY 380. South of this line, a dusting of
snow will be possible, mainly on grassy surfaces and elevated
surfaces. Once we get towards Thursday evening and into midnight
Friday, lingering wrap around precipitation may persist,
especially along the Red River. Additional accumulation will be
possible here, but for now I`ll keep new snowfall amounts around
1/2".

For the remainder of the forecast, generally above normal warmth
is anticipated as northwest flow should promote some downsloping.
The exception to this will be Friday as lingering snowpack and the
dense cold airmass both remain in place. This weekend and into
early next week should be nice. The next chance for rain will be
next week, though limited moisture should preclude any flood
concerns. Temperatures above normal should also preclude any
threat for winter weather as it stands right now.

Bain

I think our biggest hope in DFW is for for the low to come just a little further south. That and a temp bust which I don't think is as likely given dew points and the lack of CAA.

[Brent]

NBC 5's futurecast had a decent snow area over Fort Worth approaching DFW airport at 2pm, then spreading east in the northern metro mostly above Dallas proper through early evening before ending

[Jarodm12]

The temps have already busted north of DFW , why would they warm? Also the hrrr at 18 hours is now showing convective sleet showers which will quickly cool the surface

[HockeyTx82]

Denton is reporting snow........ huh?

Also, what's showing up on the radar west of FTW moving NE?

[Jarodm12]

Denton is reporting snow........ huh?

Also, what's showing up on the radar west of FTW moving NE?

Looks like snow ???

[weatherdude1108]

Happy New Year!!! Meanwhile the ground is completely fully saturated here in Austin and the rain is coming down fairly hard. The intensity comes in waves but at its slowest, I would say it's still on the high end of the moderate side before increasing back up to heavy rainfall. Approaching 3 inches here at the aptly named Rain Cave.

Our rain gauge got run over but even without I can say there has been a lot of rain. It’s been raining part of the night and all day. We have sandy soil on top of clay so it absorbs a lot, but I think it’s saturated here too.

Yeah, we're approaching three inches. Comes in waves of moderate to slightly heavy, with light to moderate in between, consistently since early this morning.

[Texas Snow]

Denton is reporting snow........ huh?

Also, what's showing up on the radar west of FTW moving NE?

Looks like snow ???

No reports of snow on mping while there is a recent report of rain just north of there around Sanger.

That's likely an automated station. It sees the fog / mist at 32 and and reports what it thinks it should be at that temp as light snow/fog/mist.

[Jarodm12]

Denton is reporting snow........ huh?

Also, what's showing up on the radar west of FTW moving NE?

We should keep our eyes open radar if sleet developer earlier temps could cool significantly more than forecast

[rwfromkansas]

My temp is going down again, so hopefully it will continue.

Come on sleet. This would help us with snow.