WPAC: 01W - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

it's a blob/mess right now, but the JMA should at least designate 90W as an area of low pressure....

nevertheless, it's ugly.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS does not develop this significantly until after TAU 144 as a TS, and as it nears the Visayas---as a typhoon.

[TyphoonNara]

it's a blob/mess right now, but the JMA should at least designate 90W as an area of low pressure....

nevertheless, it's ugly.

https://i.imgur.com/cCyBgI3.gif

IMO, the big blob of convection is usually a precursor to rapid intensification, especially with the -90 degrees Celsius cloud-tops.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

it's a blob/mess right now, but the JMA should at least designate 90W as an area of low pressure....

nevertheless, it's ugly.

https://i.imgur.com/cCyBgI3.gif

IMO, the big blob of convection is usually a precursor to rapid intensification, especially with the -90 degrees Celsius cloud-tops.

We have to be really cautious about that now.... Like, we did see the same burst of convection with Usman, Sanba, and the Visayas-bound storms that ended up being sheared off. There's a circulation and a burst of convection---but there's practically little organization. It will take days for 90W to get its act together, which I think isn't impossible though.

[TyphoonNara]

The microwave imagery of the system.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS isn't alone anymore....

[euro6208]

Peak nudge up to 45 knots under a marginally favorable environment.

WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 234 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELL OVER AN ENLARGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LARGE LLC IN THE EIR LOOP AND LINED
UP WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 1638Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T1.0/25KTS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE EIR SIGNATURE.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
BREAK IN THE STR UNTIL TAU 36. AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH LIMITED INTENSIFICATION UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE HAS COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SPREADING TO 250 NM TOWARD
THE MID PORTION. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

At 7 AM ChST this morning, Tropical Depression 01W remains a little
over 250 miles southeast of Majuro and over 500 miles east-
southeast of Kwajalein. Computer guidance now drives 01W just
south of latitude 10N but trailing on a more NNW path past Pohnpei
and Chuuk, and well south of Guam as a result of stacked ridges
between mid and upper-level that runs ESE from the west of the
Marianas, to the north of Saipan and Tinian thru the N of
Kwajalein. Basically, the ridge will help maintain the position of
01W at least south of Marianas but tracking toward the path of
some of Micronesian Islands through the midweek. Advisories for
marine conditions and Tropical Storm Watch for some of the
respective locations of Marshall Islands remains in effect. Should
01W changes direction or delays movement throughout today, heavy
rainfall and thunderstorms, winds and seas will impact most
Islands on the SW thru NW periphery of Majuro in the next 24 to 36
hours. Thus, while 01W is expected to become a tropical storm in
the next day or two, there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to
when that might happen.

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, MARSHALL ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE FLARING CONVECTIVE CELL
OVER A LARGE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND
INTENSITY ARE BASED WITH POOR CONFIDENCE ON LARGE, RAGGED LLC
FEATURES IN THE 052127Z AND 052200Z ASCAT DIRECT PASSES SHOWING A FEW
25-KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARD A BREAK IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
BREAK IN THE STR UNTIL TAU 24. AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL REBUILD AND
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.
IMPROVED
POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL PROMOTE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 40 KNOTS BY
TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK WITH LIMITED INTENSIFICATION UNDER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING 45 KNOTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL SPREADING TO 220 NM TOWARD
THE MID PORTION. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AND GIVEN THE POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

992 mb... lol backtracking GFS

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 060315
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression 01W Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Tiyan GU WP012019
115 PM ChST Sun Jan 6 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W NOW MOVING NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A tropical storm watch is now in effect for Jaluit in the Republic of
the Marshall Islands.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Mili, Majuro, Ailinglaplap,
Kwajalein and Jaluit in the Republic of the Marshall Islands.

Damaging winds of 39 mph or more are possible within 48 hours.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location...5.3N 173.9E

About 160 miles east-southeast of Mili
About 225 miles southeast of Majuro
About 300 miles east of Jaluit
About 370 miles east-southeast of Ailinglaplap
About 480 miles east-southeast of Kwajalein
About 750 miles east of Kosrae
About 2060 miles east-southeast of Guam

Maximum sustained winds...30 mph
Present movement...northwest...305 degrees at 12 mph

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM ChST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Depression 01W was
located near Latitude 5.3 degrees North and Longitude 173.9 degrees
East. Tropical Depression 01W is moving northwest at 12 mph. It is
expected to turn to the west-northwest tonight and continue in that
direction the next several days with little change in forward speed.
This current motion sends 01W north of Kosrae and Pohnpei Wednesday
and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph. Slow intensification of 01W
is expected the next several days. Tropical Depression 01W could
become a tropical storm Monday.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Weather
Service at 500 PM followed by the next scheduled advisory at 800 PM.

$$

W. Aydlett

[TyphoonNara]

JMA is finally forecasting 01W to become a low-pressure area.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

ECMWF with nothing. GFS backing off on intensity.

Development isn't impossible, but the JTWC is being wayyy to bullish on intensity---this will not be a tropical storm in 24 hours. This was also expected to be one at this time not too long ago, but that did not materialize. Conditions are relatively favorable, yet organization is almost totally absent.

Tracking typhoons is fascinating and it's a hobby of mine. It isn't to glorify the impact or any destruction, but cyclogenesis intrigues me alongside the cycles that take place during its life.

It's just frustrating to see storms that form but they just disappear and poof! Or come in weak yet harm thousands in its way. It's become something like a waste of time tracking a blob in the middle of the Western Pacific Ocean and waiting for it to evolve. I don't want to see harm, but seeing it evolve would have been fascinating. Not all storms bring extreme harm. The devastation pains me, but the cycles that take place are interesting.

It's still disappointing this might end up like a nothingburger.

[euro6208]

Big spread in the models. ECMWF (Southern) and NAVGEM (Northern) outliers.

WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 182 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
WHICH WAS DETERMINED USING A COMBINATION OF THE MSI IMAGERY, AN
060424Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND AN 060344Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH ALL SHOW WEAK BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND
THE BROAD CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WEAK RADIAL
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY TOWARD A BREAK IN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL SLOWLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS
THE STR TO THE NORTH BUILDS. MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72. THE ECMWF MODEL IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, SHOWING A
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. NAVGEM BEGINS TO DEVIATE FROM THE
OTHER MODELS BY TAU 24, AS IT MAINTAINS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.
FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE OTHER MEMBERS.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TD 01W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK AND INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER CONTINUED MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. SPREAD OF 670 NM AT TAU 120 IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS LARGELY DUE TO THE SOUTHERN (ECMWF) AND NORTHERN
(NAVGEM) OUTLIERS. DISCOUNTING THOSE MODELS, THE SPREAD IS REDUCED
TO ABOUT 215 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR
THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE PRIMARILY TO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

Looking really bad.

[TyphoonNara]

JTWC issues the final warning of the system.

[TyphoonNara]

061500Z POSITION NEAR 5.7N 173.3E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAJURO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIMITED CONVECTION WITHOUT A DISCERNIBLE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE USING THE EIR IMAGERY AND A 061009Z METOP-B
ASCAT IMAGE WHICH SHOWED TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION AND A BROAD AREA OF 15-20 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON THE ASCAT IMAGE AND A PGTW DVORAK FIX THAT IS TOO WEAK
TO ASSIGN AN INTENSITY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP IN THE
36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK
CIRCULATION WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT WITH HWRF SHOWING NO INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE COAMPS-GFS AND
COAMPS-NAVGEM SHOW A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING, POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS THE 36-48 HOUR TIMEFRAME. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 8 FEET.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Just for entertainment (or not?), the GFS 12z run is noticeably stronger than the past few runs and intensifies it quicker upon approach to the Philippines. Makes landfall at 977 mb over Northern Mindanao. CMC calling for 980s-low 990s. Perchance a storm could develop, but that isn't certain...

[euro6208]

All watches cancelled.