Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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hamburgerman7070
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2581 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:19 am

orangeblood wrote:
funster wrote:Went for a walk early this January morning before the sun was up and it was like 65 degrees. :eek: That shouldn't even be the high.


Enjoy it! After this warmup, it might be quite awhile before we see temps such as these for quite awhile!


Orangeblood, its taking a while to get this SSW to come together. I guess its not your typical one. It looks like the ensembles are trying to develop ridging over the west and alaska if i saw it correctly
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2582 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:37 am

hamburgerman7070 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
funster wrote:Went for a walk early this January morning before the sun was up and it was like 65 degrees. :eek: That shouldn't even be the high.


Enjoy it! After this warmup, it might be quite awhile before we see temps such as these for quite awhile!


Orangeblood, its taking a while to get this SSW to come together. I guess its not your typical one. It looks like the ensembles are trying to develop ridging over the west and alaska if i saw it correctly


The winds at 10 hPa just reversed a few days ago...there doesn't appear to be anything atypical about this one - It's a top down event and so it takes a little longer to propagate downward! It probably appears to be taking longer than usual because the events can be usually be modeled so far in advance...we started discussing it in Mid-December I believe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2583 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:52 am

It is starting to get frustrating that we are constantly looking out beyond 10 days for signs of winter wx. This upcoming stretch will be cool and wet for DFW but no signs of any snow and then another warm up. There are signs in the ensembles that things could start to turn our way out around the 20th of January. Both the Euro EPS and GEFS show signs that the EPO will go back negative (00z GEFS bombs it out) but the high lat blocking on the other side is murky looking at best. The EPS has a more neutral looking AO/NAO until the very long range with the GEFS also showing this with the NAO but it does keep the AO solidly negative. We can sometimes eek out a marginal event without decent cold but it is very hard as the air mass usually moderates too quickly when facing the onslaught of storms coming out the SW.

5-day GEFS avg Temps

Image

5-day GEFS 500mb

Image

The 00z EPS is trending towards the GEFS but is still warmer overall, likely driven by the more neutral look of the AO/NAO.

So unless there is a surprise, we sit and look beyond 10 days for winter wx. Given our short window here in Texas, it always makes me nervous when we basically have to punt January.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2584 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:11 am

Where's our damn Winter, wxman57?! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2585 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:14 am

Here's your winter. The 384hr panel of the 6Z GFS. I guarantee that it will be correct THIS time. ;-)

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2586 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:17 am

bubba hotep wrote:It is starting to get frustrating that we are constantly looking out beyond 10 days for signs of winter wx. This upcoming stretch will be cool and wet for DFW but no signs of any snow and then another warm up. There are signs in the ensembles that things could start to turn our way out around the 20th of January. Both the Euro EPS and GEFS show signs that the EPO will go back negative (00z GEFS bombs it out) but the high lat blocking on the other side is murky looking at best. The EPS has a more neutral looking AO/NAO until the very long range with the GEFS also showing this with the NAO but it does keep the AO solidly negative. We can sometimes eek out a marginal event without decent cold but it is very hard as the air mass usually moderates too quickly when facing the onslaught of storms coming out the SW.



The 00z EPS is trending towards the GEFS but is still warmer overall, likely driven by the more neutral look of the AO/NAO.

So unless there is a surprise, we sit and look beyond 10 days for winter wx. Given our short window here in Texas, it always makes me nervous when we basically have to punt January.


Wouldn't get too nervous considering February is by far our snowiest month!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2587 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:21 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's your winter. The 384hr panel of the 6Z GFS. I guarantee that it will be correct THIS time. ;-)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png


Boo!! Suppressed S. Texas trash winter wx lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2588 Postby hriverajr » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:30 am

bubba hotep wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Here's your winter. The 384hr panel of the 6Z GFS. I guarantee that it will be correct THIS time. ;-)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png


Boo!! Suppressed S. Texas trash winter wx lol


Hey hey.. here in Del Rio I got nothing last year.. I like that run :p Cold and dry up north.. wet underneath.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2589 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:34 am

orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:It is starting to get frustrating that we are constantly looking out beyond 10 days for signs of winter wx. This upcoming stretch will be cool and wet for DFW but no signs of any snow and then another warm up. There are signs in the ensembles that things could start to turn our way out around the 20th of January. Both the Euro EPS and GEFS show signs that the EPO will go back negative (00z GEFS bombs it out) but the high lat blocking on the other side is murky looking at best. The EPS has a more neutral looking AO/NAO until the very long range with the GEFS also showing this with the NAO but it does keep the AO solidly negative. We can sometimes eek out a marginal event without decent cold but it is very hard as the air mass usually moderates too quickly when facing the onslaught of storms coming out the SW.



The 00z EPS is trending towards the GEFS but is still warmer overall, likely driven by the more neutral look of the AO/NAO.

So unless there is a surprise, we sit and look beyond 10 days for winter wx. Given our short window here in Texas, it always makes me nervous when we basically have to punt January.


Wouldn't get too nervous considering February is by far our snowiest month!!!


I agree but it still makes me nervous that we are shrinking our window. We are looking at maybe 6 weeks now? Any delay in the pattern shift puts us at 5, then if we hit a bad patch during that 5/6 weeks then we are down to 2 or 3 weeks to try and score on winter.

Many (myself included) saw this as a potentially blockbuster winter for Texas and it may still be, if we can flip things before the end of January. However, it looks like we might be trending towards a rather typical Texas winter.

Ryan Maue offering some hope from the latest Euro Monthlies, image is for Feb.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2590 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Here's your winter. The 384hr panel of the 6Z GFS. I guarantee that it will be correct THIS time. ;-)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019010706/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_52.png



It's always 384 hours out. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2591 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:46 am

Let’s go ahead and cancel winter and order up some record breaking heat for February. I’m sick of the 70 degree weather and humidity anyway. Plus I killed a single mosquito this morning. I want more of those blood suckers.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2592 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:54 am

1900hurricane wrote:This is what winter in Texas is all about!

https://twitter.com/JohnRichTX/status/1081931912913059840

This video scares me. Scares me worse than any horror movie did as a child. Pure evil. Evil devil dust polluting Texas skies. Yesterday and today have been on the verge of a total allergy blitzkrieg.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2593 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:45 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:It is starting to get frustrating that we are constantly looking out beyond 10 days for signs of winter wx. This upcoming stretch will be cool and wet for DFW but no signs of any snow and then another warm up. There are signs in the ensembles that things could start to turn our way out around the 20th of January. Both the Euro EPS and GEFS show signs that the EPO will go back negative (00z GEFS bombs it out) but the high lat blocking on the other side is murky looking at best. The EPS has a more neutral looking AO/NAO until the very long range with the GEFS also showing this with the NAO but it does keep the AO solidly negative. We can sometimes eek out a marginal event without decent cold but it is very hard as the air mass usually moderates too quickly when facing the onslaught of storms coming out the SW.



The 00z EPS is trending towards the GEFS but is still warmer overall, likely driven by the more neutral look of the AO/NAO.

So unless there is a surprise, we sit and look beyond 10 days for winter wx. Given our short window here in Texas, it always makes me nervous when we basically have to punt January.


Wouldn't get too nervous considering February is by far our snowiest month!!!


I agree but it still makes me nervous that we are shrinking our window. We are looking at maybe 6 weeks now? Any delay in the pattern shift puts us at 5, then if we hit a bad patch during that 5/6 weeks then we are down to 2 or 3 weeks to try and score on winter.

Many (myself included) saw this as a potentially blockbuster winter for Texas and it may still be, if we can flip things before the end of January. However, it looks like we might be trending towards a rather typical Texas winter.

Ryan Maue offering some hope from the latest Euro Monthlies, image is for Feb.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwUcEtKVsAAfA0N.jpg

In recent history (since 2000 or so), the February into early March period has the majority of our snowfall. By Feb the background state is cold and the Plains snowcover is at its best so moderation is at its low point. Also it is often not until late Jan but really into Feb that SSW events affect our sensible weather enhancing the cold background state of NAM. Jan is also a dry month typically. I would bet a large amount that the 1/20-3/10 period contains >60% of our annual snowfall over the long term.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2594 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 12:49 pm

1900hurricane wrote:This is what winter in Texas is all about!

https://twitter.com/JohnRichTX/status/1081931912913059840


Looks like a clip from Bird Box........ :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2595 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:35 pm

Basically no rain at all statewide on the 12z Euro through 10 days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2596 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:49 pm

Ugh... The upcoming 1-3 weeks look disgusting. :roll: We will live through it. Just how like we live through summer. Tough but patience. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2597 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:A wall? Good idea! Let's build one on the norther U.S. border to keep the cold air out.



Hey now...let us not get snarky....
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2598 Postby Snowflake7 » Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:26 pm

Any good news for DFW or do we get stiffed again??? Wheres the love winter?????? These darn mosquitoes have to GO! I see that down south will get some love but we are completely left out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2599 Postby TexasStorm » Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:50 pm

Snowflake7 wrote:Any good news for DFW or do we get stiffed again??? Wheres the love winter?????? These darn mosquitoes have to GO! I see that down south will get some love but we are completely left out.


I saw a yellow jacket at lunch today. He must have thought that the 70+ degrees today meant he could come out of hibernation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2600 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:59 pm

There’s a nice breeze out right now and it’s just a gorgeous day...if it were spring :lol:
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