orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:It is starting to get frustrating that we are constantly looking out beyond 10 days for signs of winter wx. This upcoming stretch will be cool and wet for DFW but no signs of any snow and then another warm up. There are signs in the ensembles that things could start to turn our way out around the 20th of January. Both the Euro EPS and GEFS show signs that the EPO will go back negative (00z GEFS bombs it out) but the high lat blocking on the other side is murky looking at best. The EPS has a more neutral looking AO/NAO until the very long range with the GEFS also showing this with the NAO but it does keep the AO solidly negative. We can sometimes eek out a marginal event without decent cold but it is very hard as the air mass usually moderates too quickly when facing the onslaught of storms coming out the SW.
The 00z EPS is trending towards the GEFS but is still warmer overall, likely driven by the more neutral look of the AO/NAO.
So unless there is a surprise, we sit and look beyond 10 days for winter wx. Given our short window here in Texas, it always makes me nervous when we basically have to punt January.
Wouldn't get too nervous considering February is by far our snowiest month!!!
I agree but it still makes me nervous that we are shrinking our window. We are looking at maybe 6 weeks now? Any delay in the pattern shift puts us at 5, then if we hit a bad patch during that 5/6 weeks then we are down to 2 or 3 weeks to try and score on winter.
Many (myself included) saw this as a potentially blockbuster winter for Texas and it may still be, if we can flip things before the end of January. However, it looks like we might be trending towards a rather typical Texas winter.
Ryan Maue offering some hope from the latest Euro Monthlies, image is for Feb.

Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.