Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2941 Postby utweather » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:25 am

wxman57 wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Ntxw wrote:EPS (Euro ensembles). I will say, collectively as a group our posters together may not always get right the individuality of events, but through experience we are pretty good at picking out major changes for upcoming periods when discussing wholesale change.

https://images2.imgbox.com/cf/5c/xOcAReoM_o.png

Heat Miser has been quiet the past several days. Usually on cue he would be giving us the pessimistic view by now. Good sign.

I appreciate his pessimism as it keeps us in check when we’re grasping for signs of winter life in desperate times...but these times ahead are far from desperate by the looks of it!


I prefer to think of it as realism. I do love it when it snows, I just hate cold weather. If it's not snowing then I'd rather the temperature stay above 80 degrees. I do see a pattern change that would bring colder air out of northern Canada by next weekend. I'd be careful believing models for specifics that far out, though. Time to increase the height of my southern Canada wall...


Come on man, your suppose to drink the kolaid-aid and take these long range predictions as gospel.

Every winter the big blue blob shows up around the north pole and the models must take it by day 10-14 towards the equator with inches and sometimes feet of snow, lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2942 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:34 am

bubba hotep wrote:The 00z Euro EPS has the coldest D15 mean I have ever seen for NAM! Holy cow...


I agree. Duration wise we might be looking at something unique. Certainly since winter of 2013-2014.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2943 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:34 am

We finish this mornings drooling over the 00z Euro EPS with the control run Texas Snowstorm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2944 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:45 am

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:The 00z Euro EPS has the coldest D15 mean I have ever seen for NAM! Holy cow...


I agree. Duration wise we might be looking at something unique. Certainly since winter of 2013-2014.


Yeah, that obviously has a look of a PV crash into the Great Lakes, which doesn't happen that often. Coldest Anomalies on the planet are showing up in the lower 48, AT THE COLDEST TIME OF YEAR, and there isn't a close second!!! :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2945 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:08 am

The 0Z ECMWF has DFW at 19F Sunday morning, 17F Monday morning.

It also shows us going below freezing 7PM Saturday and staying at or below 32 until roughly Noon Tuesday - about 60 hours straight below freezing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2946 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:37 am

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...


Poor fella ... I *almost* feel sorry for you. :wink:

But we all must give you props as you told us about a month ago that our weather would likely turn much colder at some point in the latter half of January. The Grey Goose-swilling mets at the Portastorm Weather Center are working hard to get you some snow in Houston.

Poor guy. He may have to jump into his clothes dryer to keep warm.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2947 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:46 am

Brandon8181 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...


That is okay! Let's get the cold air in place and the snow will come. It may not be over the next coming weeks, but if we can just have the cold air we will be set eventually! :cold: :lol: :froze: :flag:


I'm not too confident about that, as from what I've seen, and been told here throughout the years, severe cold like that is too cold and dry for snow here. It looks like at least the DFW area may be cheated out of our snow again this year if this bitter cold materializes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2948 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:58 am

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely looking colder for next weekend, though I'm not seeing anything to indicate any significant precip in the cold air (i.e., snow). In fact, it may be so cold next Sunday that I won't be running the Houston marathon (again). I always run the January marathon if the high temperature tops 90. Oh well, maybe next year...


That is okay! Let's get the cold air in place and the snow will come. It may not be over the next coming weeks, but if we can just have the cold air we will be set eventually! :cold: :lol: :froze: :flag:


I'm not too confident about that, as from what I've seen, and been told here throughout the years, severe cold like that is too cold and dry for snow here. It looks like at least the DFW area may be cheated out of our snow again this year if this bitter cold materializes.

The Pacific STJ connection is too active for us to stay dry for any length of time this far south and we may get lucky and hit on a few northern stream clippers too. This is not a -EPO with a +PNA that leaves us high and dry. The surface may be dry but with moisture gliding over top every few days that only means more room for wet bulbing to make sure temps stay cold. I am more confident than ever that we are about to enter a very snowy period.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2949 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:05 am

:uarrow: I agree with Ralphs Weather. Super Bowl week 2010 for example. That monster front blew through on a Tuesday accompanied with thundersleet. The next day stayed in the upper teens and stayed below freezing for several days after. Then the following Friday several inches of snow fell with absolutely no melting as the snow started falling that night. Fond memories from that week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2950 Postby South Texas Storms » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:36 am

12z Canadian and GFS are both showing a winter storm across the northern half of TX around the middle part of next week. This is associated with the second surge of cold air and another disturbance. This time frame is looking very interesting...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2951 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:38 am

South Texas Storms wrote:12z Canadian and GFS are both showing a winter storm across the northern half of TX around the middle part of next week. This is associated with the second surge of cold air and another disturbance. This time frame is looking very interesting...


Confidence is growing on a big HP dome for this weekend. Models are getting colder. I would not count out frozen precip chances (slim) as cold continues to push. A bigger dome of cold will pinwheel out of Canada middle of next week (10 days) that might be even colder. This thread will fire up here pretty soon.

Any disturbance that tracks through the next 2-3 weeks will have cold air to play with. 1978 definitely comes to mind.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2952 Postby orangeblood » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:44 am

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z Canadian and GFS are both showing a winter storm across the northern half of TX around the middle part of next week. This is associated with the second surge of cold air and another disturbance. This time frame is looking very interesting...


Confidence is growing on a big HP dome for this weekend. Models are getting colder. I would not count out frozen precip chances (slim) as cold continues to push. A bigger dome of cold will pinwheel out of Canada middle of next week (10 days) that might be even colder. This thread will fire up here pretty soon.

Any disturbance that tracks through the next 2-3 weeks will have cold air to play with. 1978 definitely comes to mind.


GFS looks way off on temps for middle of next week...1048 plus HP is going to have much colder air than what's being depicted, CMC is 1043 and much colder
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2953 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:46 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2954 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:47 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z Canadian and GFS are both showing a winter storm across the northern half of TX around the middle part of next week. This is associated with the second surge of cold air and another disturbance. This time frame is looking very interesting...


Confidence is growing on a big HP dome for this weekend. Models are getting colder. I would not count out frozen precip chances (slim) as cold continues to push. A bigger dome of cold will pinwheel out of Canada middle of next week (10 days) that might be even colder. This thread will fire up here pretty soon.

Any disturbance that tracks through the next 2-3 weeks will have cold air to play with. 1978 definitely comes to mind.


GFS looks way off on temps for middle of next week...1048 plus HP is going to have much colder air than what's being depicted, CMC is 1043 and much colder


Considering how cold the source region is (N-C Canada) being absolutely frigid, a deep freeze is certainly on the table. It's not just how strong the HP is but also the strength of the cold. This is what made years like 1978/1985 so cold without record shattering HP systems.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2955 Postby wxman57 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:55 am

South Texas Storms wrote:12z Canadian and GFS are both showing a winter storm across the northern half of TX around the middle part of next week. This is associated with the second surge of cold air and another disturbance. This time frame is looking very interesting...


GFS sounding for DFW next Wednesday is definitely a snow profile, but the air column falls below freezing JUST as the precip is ending.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2956 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:02 pm

LaLaLand GFS tips the hat to McFarland
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2957 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:05 pm

gpsnowman wrote::uarrow: I agree with Ralphs Weather. Super Bowl week 2010 for example. That monster front blew through on a Tuesday accompanied with thundersleet. The next day stayed in the upper teens and stayed below freezing for several days after. Then the following Friday several inches of snow fell with absolutely no melting as the snow started falling that night. Fond memories from that week.


I do remember that. I worked at the airports for a major airline at the time. Fun Times. What a week that was.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2958 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:13 pm

will be fun to watch the next 7-10 days
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2959 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:14 pm

Ntxw wrote:LaLaLand GFS tips the hat to McFarland


Grey Goose shipping label created....Destination Austin :Partytime: :Partytime:

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#2960 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:LaLaLand GFS tips the hat to McFarland


Interesting, true McFarland events are almost exclusively during -ENSO. With AAM rising, the atmospheric is taking on a more +ENSO look.
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