WPAC: 01W - Post-Tropical

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

After so many days, JMA finally designate the system as a low pressure area.

[euro6208]

REMAINS LOW

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 01W) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 164.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 159.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 110309Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) COVERED
BY A LARGE AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF 01W ARE CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

I never considered that the models are getting excited about this remnant again because it didn't last long enough to be a trend, in short the current high probability outcome of this remnant is either a TD or dissipation

[xtyphooncyclonex]

they've ditched the OTS

[euro6208]

Favorable environment for future development.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 84
NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) COVERED BY A LARGE
AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS),
AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
WESTWARD WITH CONSISTENT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

Track of the invest.

[TyphoonNara]

GFS strengthens this to 962mb.

[TyphoonNara]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 158.4E, APPROXIMATELY 70
NM SOUTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
130257Z GCOM-W1 AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PERSISTENT BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISPLACED FLARING CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH
WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 TO 15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 159.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 155.9E, APPROXIMATELY 115
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 140448Z SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION WITH AN ILL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

[Hayabusa]

JMA 06Z

Code: Select all

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 05N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[TyphoonNara]

[cycloneye]

12Z JMA update:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 05N 152E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[wxman57]

ScatSat indicated a well-defined but broad LLC 24 hours ago. Looks like it's well on its way to developing. I'd give it a 60-70% chance.

[cycloneye]

JMA 18Z update still a Low Pressure:

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 04N 153E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

[euro6208]

Reupgraded to MEDIUM.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 01W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4N 155.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0N 153.5E, APPROXIMATELY 170
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
A 142321Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT WEAK, SCATTERED CONVECTION BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[mrbagyo]

12 days and counting