Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TexasSam]

Cold, and freezing precipitation are fun, but I remember Christmas 1990 I think. The rolling blackouts, lack of water from everyone busted pipes, or dripping faucets, no stores open or they were open, but the food was all gone. Not fun. Something I'll never forget.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Cold, and freezing precipitation are fun, but I remember Christmas 1990 I think. The rolling blackouts, lack of water from everyone busted pipes, or dripping faucets, no stores open or they were open, but the food was all gone. Not fun. Something I'll never forget.

That was 89 if I recall correctly. Got down below zero in Longview.

[rwfromkansas]

I remember how cold ‘89 was in Kansas, and I was just a little kid. It was crazy. We sledded on neighborhood ponds around.

[bubba hotep]

Latest Euro Weeklies keep Texas colder than normal through all of February. Favorable upper-level pattern too. We could be in for quite the ride over the next 45 days fellas!

Yep, looks primed for multiple winter wx threats to impact all of Texas.

[Ntxw]

We're seeding Canada now with cold air. Hudson Bay dome of cold will grow throughout this week and next week. Then we wait for the high pressure systems to send chunks of it down at a time. As I mentioned earlier, a long duration freeze for the northern half of the state is likely in the near future (hard freezes probably to the coast). The coldest air on Earth is going to sit over North America. Siberia is going to lose it's usual position of cold air during the same stretch, the SSW this time around did not deliver to them.



This is not the coldest 850mb temps I've seen in Canada of the past decade (2011 before the SB outbreak was very cold) but it may hang around longer than that dome.

[Ntxw]

Rolling forward to the end of the month and into early Feb the teleconnections on the ensembles are signaling a deeper -AO, a secondary dip to -EPO, A more -NAO and the WPO remaining negative. That'll keep this train going forward into February. I would not be shocked if the greatest period of cold/snow actually happens in the month of Feb despite how active and cold the end of January could turn out to be.

[Haris]

Rolling forward to the end of the month and into early Feb the teleconnections on the ensembles are signaling a deeper -AO, a secondary dip to -EPO, A more -NAO and the WPO remaining negative. That'll keep this train going forward into February. I would not be shocked if the greatest period of cold/snow actually happens in the month of Feb despite how active and cold the end of January could turn out to be.

Oh my god... Stop it with all this awesome news

[northjaxpro]

Rolling forward to the end of the month and into early Feb the teleconnections on the ensembles are signaling a deeper -AO, a secondary dip to -EPO, A more -NAO and the WPO remaining negative. That'll keep this train going forward into February. I would not be shocked if the greatest period of cold/snow actually happens in the month of Feb despite how active and cold the end of January could turn out to be.

Yes Ntwx, this is correct. We are seeing the teleconnections align as ideal as you will see( for having the coldest temps on the planet find its place across the North America continent for probably the next 30 to 45 days potentially. This is rare . By the time we get to the end of February, we may be discussing how this winter 2019 potentially could go down as one of the coldest and stormiest ever. We will find out as time progresses.

[Haris]

I predict we reach 490 pages when the winter thread is over. Lets do a little competition.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok gang. I've been on the forum for quite some time. We have seen quite a bit of busts along the way. Not saying anyone is right or wrong but I sense confidence is high for the forthcoming cold and perhaps prolonged cold. How is what we are seeing any different then what we have seen over the years I've been on this forum. It seems we always bring up the cold snaps of long ago but we have never seen a true repeat. This is with all respect to everyone, just curious what makes this any different this time as to what we are seeing and how close we are to it happening. Any truth in following the market in terms of oil and natural gas prices? If they start to go up cold is coming for sure? Just curious.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Come on north trend DFW deserves this one

Nah it's been over 10 years since south central TX had a big snow storm (over 4 inches). We want a big one!

yep.. to heck with a north trend.. besides your snow season is longer in north texas :p

Oh no, we got cheated last year out of snow while it all went south of us. It's definitely our turn! That bullseye needs to be right over the DFW metroplex!

[Ntxw]

Ok gang. I've been on the forum for quite some time. We have seen quite a bit of busts along the way. Not saying anyone is right or wrong but I sense confidence is high for the forthcoming cold and perhaps prolonged cold. How is what we are seeing any different then what we have seen over the years I've been on this forum. It seems we always bring up the cold snaps of long ago but we have never seen a true repeat. This is with all respect to everyone, just curious what makes this any different this time as to what we are seeing and how close we are to it happening. Any truth in following the market in terms of oil and natural gas prices? If they start to go up cold is coming for sure? Just curious.

We don't actually know how cold. We just know it is likely to be a cold stretch. Someone always sees snow when you have Pacific blocking and a cold dome in Hudson Bay. Who, we don't know. You can probably, at worst, expect cold snaps similar to last year..maybe colder if it plays out right.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok gang. I've been on the forum for quite some time. We have seen quite a bit of busts along the way. Not saying anyone is right or wrong but I sense confidence is high for the forthcoming cold and perhaps prolonged cold. How is what we are seeing any different then what we have seen over the years I've been on this forum. It seems we always bring up the cold snaps of long ago but we have never seen a true repeat. This is with all respect to everyone, just curious what makes this any different this time as to what we are seeing and how close we are to it happening. Any truth in following the market in terms of oil and natural gas prices? If they start to go up cold is coming for sure? Just curious.

We don't actually know how cold. We just know it is likely to be a cold stretch. Someone always sees snow when you have Pacific blocking and a cold dome in Hudson Bay. Who, we don't know. You can probably, at worst, expect cold snaps similar to last year..maybe colder if it plays out right.

Ntwx, thanks for the reply. Are we seeing any signs, subtle perhaps, that we could be in for record breaking cold? I always thought Alaska had to be like 60 below for us to get truly cold. Is this different in that the source is larger and the setup will keep it prolonged possibly? If it I'm not mistaken was 2011 Alaska is source?

[Ntxw]

Ntwx, thanks for the reply. Are we seeing any signs, subtle perhaps, that we could be in for record breaking cold? I always thought Alaska had to be like 60 below for us to get truly cold. Is this different in that the source is larger and the setup will keep it prolonged possibly? If it I'm not mistaken was 2011 Alaska is source?

Alaska does not need to get really cold. McFarland's paper (as a benchmark guide) suggest a few things to be present. Deep, PV anomaly low pressure cold dome between Hudson Bay and/or the Davis Straits. This is what often means by cold being on our side of the globe...vs Siberia/Caspian Sea. That's your source. A deep continental trough (bowl) from west/southwest to east/northeast across the US. And of course the big ridging that must be present on the Pacific, roughly near or off the Pacific Coast of North America.

Without a -NAO the cold will blast for about a week or so and then move on out. But we are expecting a -NAO/-AO to linger due to the effects of SSW. What this will do is lock in place the PV anomaly across Hudson Bay with no escape route and chunks of that cold keeps breaking off and heads south as the Pacific flow allows. Most years of late we have not been able to sustain the NAO or AO.

[Ntxw]

I predict we reach 490 pages when the winter thread is over. Lets do a little competition.

I am predicting 300 pages by the end of the month. Going for 500 pages by middle March. If we get a snowstorm middle of next week, we'll be at 300 by then easily.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Ok gang. I've been on the forum for quite some time. We have seen quite a bit of busts along the way. Not saying anyone is right or wrong but I sense confidence is high for the forthcoming cold and perhaps prolonged cold. How is what we are seeing any different then what we have seen over the years I've been on this forum. It seems we always bring up the cold snaps of long ago but we have never seen a true repeat. This is with all respect to everyone, just curious what makes this any different this time as to what we are seeing and how close we are to it happening. Any truth in following the market in terms of oil and natural gas prices? If they start to go up cold is coming for sure? Just curious.

We don't actually know how cold. We just know it is likely to be a cold stretch. Someone always sees snow when you have Pacific blocking and a cold dome in Hudson Bay. Who, we don't know. You can probably, at worst, expect cold snaps similar to last year..maybe colder if it plays out right.

This is what I’ve been waiting for. Don’t let me down now winter.

[PTrackerLA]

Ok gang. I've been on the forum for quite some time. We have seen quite a bit of busts along the way. Not saying anyone is right or wrong but I sense confidence is high for the forthcoming cold and perhaps prolonged cold. How is what we are seeing any different then what we have seen over the years I've been on this forum. It seems we always bring up the cold snaps of long ago but we have never seen a true repeat. This is with all respect to everyone, just curious what makes this any different this time as to what we are seeing and how close we are to it happening. Any truth in following the market in terms of oil and natural gas prices? If they start to go up cold is coming for sure? Just curious.

We don't actually know how cold. We just know it is likely to be a cold stretch. Someone always sees snow when you have Pacific blocking and a cold dome in Hudson Bay. Who, we don't know. You can probably, at worst, expect cold snaps similar to last year..maybe colder if it plays out right.

January 2018 was quite wicked here, matched our coldest low (16) from 1996 and have to go back to 1989 to beat that. Also had a fairly major (for this area) sleet and ice storm that shut down the city for a day and a half. Every street was a complete sheet of ice with sleet on top, I've never quite seen that happen here. We had a few days which did not get above freezing as well. The funny thing is the winter would have probably have been forgotten if it weren't for the winter storm as February was extremely warm and the winter effectively ended in late January.

So far this season we've had a very cold November with early freezes and then balmy since then with everyone wondering where winter is. This is shaping up to be quite a change and I think the longevity (several weeks of cold/arctic fronts by the looks of models) will catch a lot of people off guard. My shrubs are blooming and Maple trees are flowering already as well!

As a winter weather lover I'm pretty excited what I'm seeing in the models! It will be interesting to watch how this weekend's front pans out. If we really do make it down to near 20, which is actually somewhat rare this far south in any given winter, buckle up folks because that's just round 1!

[ztshanklin]

Cold, and freezing precipitation are fun, but I remember Christmas 1990 I think. The rolling blackouts, lack of water from everyone busted pipes, or dripping faucets, no stores open or they were open, but the food was all gone. Not fun. Something I'll never forget.

That was 89 if I recall correctly. Got down below zero in Longview.

I was only 2 at the time but have a vivid memory of lake Cherokee freezing over out to 10 feet or so

[dhweather]

I'm going to ask the 18z GFS to marry me ...

http://i66.tinypic.com/1g4zsk.jpg

Hello, its me......

[HockeyTx82]

The Cowboys Lucy us every year........


So are we waiting for model runs? Have not seen any posts of late. What time do they run again?