Texas Winter 2018-2019

Winter Weather Discussion

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spencer817
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3041 Postby spencer817 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:25 pm

Who else isn't going to get any any sleep for the next month? :lol: :thermo:
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I'm going to go to school for this stuff :P

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3042 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:26 pm



Ha ha, that’s what I feel like. I dont think I ever ever seen the board so positive about potential multiple winter weather events over an extended period of time.

I feel like Lucy not only has the football ready, but she is secretly live streaming it to the rest of the planet to embarrass us yet again.
Last edited by Texas Snow on Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3043 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:28 pm

GFS starts running soon. Perhaps activity will pick up in about an hour or so.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3044 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:29 pm

ztshanklin wrote:
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:
TexasSam wrote:Cold, and freezing precipitation are fun, but I remember Christmas 1990 I think. The rolling blackouts, lack of water from everyone busted pipes, or dripping faucets, no stores open or they were open, but the food was all gone. Not fun. Something I'll never forget.



That was 89 if I recall correctly. Got down below zero in Longview.


I was only 2 at the time but have a vivid memory of lake Cherokee freezing over out to 10 feet or so


Yep, that’s the one. I remember my parents letting me go outside to play a football game with neighbors and the temp reading at Gregg County Airport was -2 with a wind chill of -9.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3045 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:31 pm

In other news, perhaps it was mentioned, Skywarn classes are being canceled per NWS FWD homepage. Sure hope things get back up by Spring time. Texas Spring without full services could pose a real safety hazard.......
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3046 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:44 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:In other news, perhaps it was mentioned, Skywarn classes are being canceled per NWS FWD homepage. Sure hope things get back up by Spring time. Texas Spring without full services could pose a real safety hazard.......


That’s strange timing because they only started promoting over the weekend I think it was.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3047 Postby Captmorg70 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:56 pm

Even the “down time” between runs has been busy the last few days on here. This place may be hard to keep up without hourly viewings for the next few weeks 8-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3048 Postby Texas Snow » Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:59 pm

Captmorg70 wrote:Even the “down time” between runs has been busy the last few days on here. This place may be hard to keep up without hourly viewings for the next few weeks 8-)


Wait, people go longer than an hour without looking on here? :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3049 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:12 pm

Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
hriverajr wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Nah it's been over 10 years since south central TX had a big snow storm (over 4 inches). We want a big one! :lol:


yep.. to heck with a north trend.. besides your snow season is longer in north texas :p


Oh no, we got cheated last year out of snow while it all went south of us. It's definitely our turn! That bullseye needs to be right over the DFW metroplex!


Preach! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3050 Postby Cerlin » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:21 pm

Brent wrote:
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:
hriverajr wrote:
yep.. to heck with a north trend.. besides your snow season is longer in north texas :p


Oh no, we got cheated last year out of snow while it all went south of us. It's definitely our turn! That bullseye needs to be right over the DFW metroplex!


Preach! :lol:

DFW OR BUST!!! :lol: :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3051 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:22 pm

GFS as far as this weekend goes is largely unchanged. It has 1048 HP and lows in the mid 20s highs barely to freezing at DFW Sunday. Notoriously, safe to bet we can still shave 5-10F off those values for lows given its known consistent problems.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3052 Postby Haris » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:GFS as far as this weekend goes is largely unchanged. It has 1048 HP and lows in the mid 20s highs barely to freezing at DFW Sunday. Notoriously, safe to bet we can still shave 5-10F off those values for lows given its known consistent problems.


I am guessing that rule applies to us folks in Central Texas as well?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3053 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:28 pm

Haris wrote:
Ntxw wrote:GFS as far as this weekend goes is largely unchanged. It has 1048 HP and lows in the mid 20s highs barely to freezing at DFW Sunday. Notoriously, safe to bet we can still shave 5-10F off those values for lows given its known consistent problems.


I am guessing that rule applies to us folks in Central Texas as well?


I'm not certain about central Texas. But I've documented well the past 2 seasons of where the GFS, without fail, was always 5-10F degrees warmer than real time temperatures for whatever reason during cold snaps. I'm not sure if the model is overzealous with heat island or whatnot but it's been very poorly schemed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3054 Postby Cpv17 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:28 pm

Looks like the 0z GFS lost the front for next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3055 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:30 pm

0z GFS at 5h is different than the 18z thus not likely as big a winter storm as the prior run. Also it's less cold than the 18z for the period of mid week in 10 days verbatim.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3056 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:34 pm

how shocking :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3057 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:34 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Looks like the 0z GFS lost the front for next week.

Haha, it'll return. This set up will produce the only question if is when and exactly where.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3058 Postby starsfan65 » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:35 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Looks like the 0z GFS lost the front for next week.

why did it lose the front for next week?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3059 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:36 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Looks like the 0z GFS lost the front for next week.

why did it lose the front for next week?


Because it's gone back and forth just about every other run 10 days out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3060 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:38 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Looks like the 0z GFS lost the front for next week.

why did it lose the front for next week?


well its the OP GFS lol
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