Texas Winter 2018-2019

[amawea]

Well, up here in extreme north central Arkansas we were supposed to get several inches of snow last week but it didn't happen. Just cold rain and the heavy snow was up in Missouri. It looks like the same thing is going to happen Saturday night. Yesterday local mets were forecasting a wide swath of snow from central Arkansas to central Missouri, this morning I wake up and they are saying just cold rain in Arkansas. They need to toss the long range forecast and stick with a 2 or 3 day forecast. These long rage missed forecast just lead to a big let down (if you like snow) most of the time. Yesterday the low was coming out of south central Texas into north Louisiana bringing us cold and snow. Today it's showing the low coming out of north Texas along the Red River into north Arkansas bringing cold rain.

[utweather]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

Yes, exactly.
Thank you for mentioning Troy Duncan. Brought back so many memories:-)
These men used the computers in their heads.

[Ralph's Weather]

Well, up here in extreme north central Arkansas we were supposed to get several inches of snow last week but it didn't happen. Just cold rain and the heavy snow was up in Missouri. It looks like the same thing is going to happen Saturday night. Yesterday local mets were forecasting a wide swath of snow from central Arkansas to central Missouri, this morning I wake up and they are saying just cold rain in Arkansas. They need to toss the long range forecast and stick with a 2 or 3 day forecast. These long rage missed forecast just lead to a big let down (if you like snow) most of the time. Yesterday the low was coming out of south central Texas into north Louisiana bringing us cold and snow. Today it's showing the low coming out of north Texas along the Red River into north Arkansas bringing cold rain.

There is still time for the storm to dig further SW but yea it is not looking good. Right now models show the upper low digging into N NM, for y'all to see anything good it would really need to dig south into N Mex.

[orangeblood]

Just looked at the long range GFS and it is comical. All ensembles GFS, Euro and Canadian show -EPO, -AO and -NAO. In the face of that the GFS says nah I want to plow my trough east haha, not a chance in the world that happens. This weekend's trough will be fairly quick hitting as the Atlantic blocking is not yet fully locked in. After that moves out the Atlantic blocking sets up which will lock in the coldest air on the planet over Canada for weeks with the NE Pacific ridge set up just off of the West coast allowing the cold to envelop the continent east of the Rockies. A pattern locked in like this will not break down until a big storm knocks it out and I do not see that coming within the next two weeks as a -PNA will have to develop to allow a storm to strengthen enough to reset the N Hem pattern at least partially. AFter that I will be interested if the cold can rebuild enough for another big storm to end the winter.

Spot on Ralph!! Best to follow the ENS teleconnection indices to give you the best picture/trends for anything outside of 6-7 days and almost all point towards this locking in after the 20-21st. Nothing has changed or is being "pushed" back in what has been discussed for weeks now

[harp]

Just looked at the long range GFS and it is comical. All ensembles GFS, Euro and Canadian show -EPO, -AO and -NAO. In the face of that the GFS says nah I want to plow my trough east haha, not a chance in the world that happens. This weekend's trough will be fairly quick hitting as the Atlantic blocking is not yet fully locked in. After that moves out the Atlantic blocking sets up which will lock in the coldest air on the planet over Canada for weeks with the NE Pacific ridge set up just off of the West coast allowing the cold to envelop the continent east of the Rockies. A pattern locked in like this will not break down until a big storm knocks it out and I do not see that coming within the next two weeks as a -PNA will have to develop to allow a storm to strengthen enough to reset the N Hem pattern at least partially. AFter that I will be interested if the cold can rebuild enough for another big storm to end the winter.

Spot on Ralph!! Best to follow the ENS teleconnection indices to give you the best picture/trends for anything outside of 6-7 days and almost all point towards this locking in after the 20-21st. Nothing has changed or is being "pushed" back in what has been discussed for weeks now

I think folks get discouraged when the operational model runs don't show what they have been expecting. It's just human nature, I suppose. I am guity of that myself sometimes.

[gpsnowman]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

Yes, exactly.
Thank you for mentioning Troy Duncan. Brought back so many memories:-)
These men used the computers in their heads.

https://youtu.be/umDDzdA6V2g
I have posted this a couple times over the years but it is still fun to watch. Late January 1985 was a very cold stretch for DFW and Troy delivers his forecast like it is no big deal, a real pro. I was 10 years old at the time and had a couple snow days as a result. Nice childhood memories. The weather starts about 10 minutes in.

[Ralph's Weather]

Just looked at the long range GFS and it is comical. All ensembles GFS, Euro and Canadian show -EPO, -AO and -NAO. In the face of that the GFS says nah I want to plow my trough east haha, not a chance in the world that happens. This weekend's trough will be fairly quick hitting as the Atlantic blocking is not yet fully locked in. After that moves out the Atlantic blocking sets up which will lock in the coldest air on the planet over Canada for weeks with the NE Pacific ridge set up just off of the West coast allowing the cold to envelop the continent east of the Rockies. A pattern locked in like this will not break down until a big storm knocks it out and I do not see that coming within the next two weeks as a -PNA will have to develop to allow a storm to strengthen enough to reset the N Hem pattern at least partially. AFter that I will be interested if the cold can rebuild enough for another big storm to end the winter.

Spot on Ralph!! Best to follow the ENS teleconnection indices to give you the best picture/trends for anything outside of 6-7 days and almost all point towards this locking in after the 20-21st. Nothing has changed or is being "pushed" back in what has been discussed for weeks now

Thanks, good to know I am not crazy haha. It is wild how the ops are so far off of the ens.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Based on what I've been seeing, the models have the PV near Hudson bay (sweet spot) for this week, it lobes around and fires off pieces of it around the Northern Hemisphere. Then, later in the runs, it takes up position over Hudson Bay again and it gets back to business. I see this as something positive moving forward. The -EPO looks fantastic as well. Really excited to see what will happen in the future.

[cheezyWXguy]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

Yes, exactly.
Thank you for mentioning Troy Duncan. Brought back so many memories:-)
These men used the computers in their heads.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. I must preface this by saying that I believe everyone referenced discussion is very knowledgeable, experienced, and likely had a good track record. However, and maybe I'm reading too much into this, but there seems to be an implied sentiment that these past weathermen's intuition was superior to the forecasting tools that are used today, which is objectively false. Today's forecasts aren't being generated by model huggers on message boards like ours (and don't get me wrong, I love being here and I have learned a lot over the 13 years I've posted here, but admittedly the general public probably wouldn't be overly happy with us if we were the ones putting out official forecasts). They are generated by meteorologists who use a properly weighted consensus of models that despite their flaws have been steadily improving over time, and a knowledge based that has been steadily advanced over that same time period that allows them to use intuition and reference experience of their own. I'm only 26, so I'm pretty sure I'm too young to remember Harold, but I got into weather by eagerly watching Troy talk about winter storms and school closures during my elementary school years. It's a great memory, but I'm inclined to believe that the suggestion that they had a higher degree of accuracy than meteorologists today with the tools available 15-20 years ago or longer, is being made while looking through rose-colored glasses at the past.

[TheProfessor]

First, when you look at verification scores for NWS forecasters they are very good. They know how to balance model data, climatology, and anologs fairly well. They pride themselves in whether or not their forecasts or any other warning that may or may not have been issued verify. Outside of the NWS you start playing with fire.

2nd, Yuck! The models are trending towards me getting a severe ice storm this weekend.

[South Texas Storms]

12z FV3 and old GFS are on board with a winter storm risk across much of the state by the last few days of January.

With the cold air likely hanging around for potentially several weeks, I think we have a pretty good chance of seeing some snow and ice late January through the first half of February.

[harp]

12z FV3 and old GFS are on board with a winter storm risk across much of the state by the last few days of January.

With the cold air likely hanging around for potentially several weeks, I think we have a pretty good chance of seeing some snow and ice late January through the first half of February.

I hate to do this because I don't want to be a pain, but what are your thoughts for south Louisiana during this time frame?

[South Texas Storms]

12z FV3 and old GFS are on board with a winter storm risk across much of the state by the last few days of January.

With the cold air likely hanging around for potentially several weeks, I think we have a pretty good chance of seeing some snow and ice late January through the first half of February.

I hate to do this because I don't want to be a pain, but what are your thoughts for south Louisiana during this time frame?

Haha no worries. I think much of the Gulf Coast will have a higher than normal risk of frozen precipitation later this month and into February.

[Brent]

All I want in life is just a little bit of snow...is that too hard to ask weather gods?

sure seems that way lol

but honestly I would be shocked if we don't break our snowless streak in the next month

of course I'm a little surprised I still haven't seen a flake on January 15th

[gpsnowman]

Is it Euro time? Need some good news while at work!!

[utweather]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

Yes, exactly.
Thank you for mentioning Troy Duncan. Brought back so many memories:-)
These men used the computers in their heads.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. I must preface this by saying that I believe everyone referenced discussion is very knowledgeable, experienced, and likely had a good track record. However, and maybe I'm reading too much into this, but there seems to be an implied sentiment that these past weathermen's intuition was superior to the forecasting tools that are used today, which is objectively false. Today's forecasts aren't being generated by model huggers on message boards like ours (and don't get me wrong, I love being here and I have learned a lot over the 13 years I've posted here, but admittedly the general public probably wouldn't be overly happy with us if we were the ones putting out official forecasts). They are generated by meteorologists who use a properly weighted consensus of models that despite their flaws have been steadily improving over time, and a knowledge based that has been steadily advanced over that same time period that allows them to use intuition and reference experience of their own. I'm only 26, so I'm pretty sure I'm too young to remember Harold, but I got into weather by eagerly watching Troy talk about winter storms and school closures during my elementary school years. It's a great memory, but I'm inclined to believe that the suggestion that they had a higher degree of accuracy than meteorologists today with the tools available 15-20 years ago or longer, is being made while looking through rose-colored glasses at the past.

There is massive misinformation overload today. I'm sure one model is correct. Good luck finding out which one.

[CaptinCrunch]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

Yes, exactly.
Thank you for mentioning Troy Duncan. Brought back so many memories:-)
These men used the computers in their heads.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. I must preface this by saying that I believe everyone referenced discussion is very knowledgeable, experienced, and likely had a good track record. However, and maybe I'm reading too much into this, but there seems to be an implied sentiment that these past weathermen's intuition was superior to the forecasting tools that are used today, which is objectively false. Today's forecasts aren't being generated by model huggers on message boards like ours (and don't get me wrong, I love being here and I have learned a lot over the 13 years I've posted here, but admittedly the general public probably wouldn't be overly happy with us if we were the ones putting out official forecasts). They are generated by meteorologists who use a properly weighted consensus of models that despite their flaws have been steadily improving over time, and a knowledge based that has been steadily advanced over that same time period that allows them to use intuition and reference experience of their own. I'm only 26, so I'm pretty sure I'm too young to remember Harold, but I got into weather by eagerly watching Troy talk about winter storms and school closures during my elementary school years. It's a great memory, but I'm inclined to believe that the suggestion that they had a higher degree of accuracy than meteorologists today with the tools available 15-20 years ago or longer, is being made while looking through rose-colored glasses at the past.

No one can dispute how technology has greatly improved weather forecasting and I'm thankful for that, but there was a time before moderen technology.

Harlods hand drawn weather maps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fXoCC0iEDG8

Harold Taft Tribute
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNOjH5sGbTM start @ 10:40

[Brent]

12z Euro looks to have a little snow maybe as far south as Denton and McKinney Saturday

Hope is not lost yet for the metro

[Ralph's Weather]

Harold Taft was a true weatherman, using satellite images hours old, no radar, no computer models, just straight up maps and hand crunched data he layed out a 5 day forecast that was pretty accurate.

Heard him say many of times "this is what I think is going to happen" and he was usually right

After Harold, Troy Duncan was my favorite.

Yes, exactly.
Thank you for mentioning Troy Duncan. Brought back so many memories:-)
These men used the computers in their heads.

I'm sorry, but I disagree. I must preface this by saying that I believe everyone referenced discussion is very knowledgeable, experienced, and likely had a good track record. However, and maybe I'm reading too much into this, but there seems to be an implied sentiment that these past weathermen's intuition was superior to the forecasting tools that are used today, which is objectively false. Today's forecasts aren't being generated by model huggers on message boards like ours (and don't get me wrong, I love being here and I have learned a lot over the 13 years I've posted here, but admittedly the general public probably wouldn't be overly happy with us if we were the ones putting out official forecasts). They are generated by meteorologists who use a properly weighted consensus of models that despite their flaws have been steadily improving over time, and a knowledge based that has been steadily advanced over that same time period that allows them to use intuition and reference experience of their own. I'm only 26, so I'm pretty sure I'm too young to remember Harold, but I got into weather by eagerly watching Troy talk about winter storms and school closures during my elementary school years. It's a great memory, but I'm inclined to believe that the suggestion that they had a higher degree of accuracy than meteorologists today with the tools available 15-20 years ago or longer, is being made while looking through rose-colored glasses at the past.

First, when you look at verification scores for NWS forecasters they are very good. They know how to balance model data, climatology, and anologs fairly well. They pride themselves in whether or not their forecasts or any other warning that may or may not have been issued verify. Outside of the NWS you start playing with fire.

2nd, Yuck! The models are trending towards me getting a severe ice storm this weekend.

As The Professor notes there is a huge gap between most TV weather people and NWS forecasts. NWS is tasked with making accurate forecasts. TV guys are tasked with getting ratings. On here we generally are looking for the next big event. All three groups have access to the same data generally and all three groups have members with wildly varying skill sets and amounts of experience. I agree that a good forecast requires a balancing act of reading all of the data (models and current weather data) and knowing how past similar events have transpired. Everyone has to be careful of putting too much weight to into one piece of the pie as the pieces are ever changing and sometimes they are just plain wrong.

[HockeyTx82]

12z Euro looks to have a little snow maybe as far south as Denton and McKinney Saturday

Hope is not lost yet for the metro

Go on....... I'm just west of Denton.