Texas Winter 2018-2019

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro now shows a winter storm risk across the northern half of Texas by the middle part of next week. Digs the next system deeper into Mexico this run.

[bubba hotep]

We need a south shift but that kind of snow cover would be insane!

[northjaxpro]

That would be about 75-80% of the Continental U.S. with snowcover by the end of this month.

The pattern shaping up now definitely makes this attainable.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro just dropped the hammer. Not Cross-polar flow but big step in the right direction with a full latitude trough

[Cpv17]

The 12z Euro is pretty cold next week

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Does the euro show snow for Texas at 192-216?

[Portastorm]

Does the euro show snow for Texas at 192-216?

Looks to have a brief period of ice/snow for the Metroplex as a surface low moves east across the state.

[gpsnowman]

Euro just dropped the hammer. Not Cross-polar flow but big step in the right direction with a full latitude trough

Excellent. Maybe the 18z GFS will go back to what it had yesterday.

[Portastorm]

For my neck of the Texas woods ... today's trends in both the GFS and Euro for our weekend front are moderating temps just a bit. Actually the 12z Euro moderated them a lot! LOL. 12z has a low of 34 Sunday morning while the 0z and yesterday's 12z had 26. We shall see if this is a trend which holds or if King Euro adjusts colder tonight and tomorrow.

Again, remember to look over these model details more for entertainment purposes and don't bank on anything until we're 2-3 days out.

[Cpv17]

Love this look! Horseshoe shaped blocking over the top! Big trough below!

[northjaxpro]

Classic blocking pattern for the North America continent. You can not draw it up any better than this.

[Ralph's Weather]

We need a south shift but that kind of snow cover would be insane!

https://i.ibb.co/GnQBzgC/Untitled.png

Even if these first couple events don't pan out that deep snowcover will just further support the upper air pattern and allow surface highs to deepen that much more. It is rare to see ensembles mean highs in the 30s 15 days out over Texas.

[stormlover2013]

don't get to excited yet my friends lol

[orangeblood]

CFSV2 has been a pretty useful model in the 10-20 day time frame and up until now, hasn't really jump on the Arctic Outbreak train....well it is now leading the charge!!! There appears to something pretty substantial brewing towards the end of the month

[Haris]

Well the euro trended quite warmer with this first front. This is why we can’t at all be excited at least about specifics days out. Not saying it’s right, can change back but you know what I mean.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

You rarely see a storm in dfw that is not a surprise. Go back and look at some of the threads for 2013-2015. The conjecture sounded very similar to now, very cold...no moisture then suddenly we get a sleet storm that iced up the roads for five days. That’s from dec 2013. Hence the it’ll happen when it happens comment made around here quite a bit.

[Cpv17]

You rarely see a storm in dfw that is not a surprise. Go back and look at some of the threads for 2013-2015. The conjecture sounded very similar to now, very cold...no moisture then suddenly we get a sleet storm that iced up the roads for five days. That’s from dec 2013. Hence the it’ll happen when it happens comment made around here quite a bit.

I think it’s like that all over the south, in general. Winter weather forecasting in the south is tough. It’s more like a nowcasting type of thing.

[Cerlin]

You rarely see a storm in dfw that is not a surprise. Go back and look at some of the threads for 2013-2015. The conjecture sounded very similar to now, very cold...no moisture then suddenly we get a sleet storm that iced up the roads for five days. That’s from dec 2013. Hence the it’ll happen when it happens comment made around here quite a bit.

The fact that we even have slight moisture before the initial weekend front makes me excited.

[Cpv17]

As far as this weekends cold front goes, I wouldn’t put too much stock into the 5-7 degree warmup that it’s shown today. Global models notoriously do this at this stage (within 5 days) basically every time. Then the mesoscale models bring it back once they get within range.

[wxman57]

My wall appears to be working. 12Z Euro is 5 deg warmer for both the D-FW area and Houston. From 19F to 24F in DFW, from 26 to 30-31 in Houston. VERY interesting late-month ice storm across most of east Texas in the FV3-GFS. By interesting, I mean unlikely. We can almost trust the GFS for THIS weekend's weather, but as for January 30th - forget it.