Texas Winter 2018-2019

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SoupBone
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3141 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:35 pm

If any of this verifies, the cold may actually cool wxman57's warm heart. He might move to South America before this is all over. :lol: :froze: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3142 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:42 pm

This is SE TX specific from Jeff Lindner:

Main forecast item of interest for the next several days will be the arrival of an arctic air mass into the region Saturday and rain chances ahead of this feature.

Cloud bank has overspread the region this morning and with continued NE winds draining cold air into the region from western Louisiana, temperatures are not going to rise much today…likely only into the mid 50’s. Coastal trough will slowly develop along the middle TX coast later this afternoon and help in increase moisture advection over the surface cold air mass. Expect light rain, drizzle and fog to develop overnight and linger into Wednesday especially south of I-10.

Much warmer air mass spreads into the region on developing southerly winds ahead of a powerful upper level trough and arctic front. With increasing moisture and some instability in place by Friday expect to see scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms develop over the region. Approach of the strong frontal boundary and upper level trough late Friday into early Saturday will result in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Overall fast motion of the system should keep rainfall totals generally under 1 inch for most areas.

Weekend:

Arctic cold front will blast across the region with strong cold air advection and rapidly falling temperatures. Front should be near the coast by late morning and all sites will experience high temperatures prior to the frontal passage. Temperatures by Saturday afternoon and evening will likely be a solid 20-30 degrees colder than Friday evening as strong cold air advection drives the air mass across TX and offshore. Advective freeze is looking likely for most areas NW of US 59 for Saturday night and winds will continue to howl as the arctic high pressure builds into the area. Wind chills by Sunday morning will fall well into the 20’s and 10’s over the entire region with winds of 15-25mph. Low temperatures Sunday morning will fall into the low 30’s and upper 20’s along and NW of US 59 and into the mid 20’s N of HWY 105. This will be a damaging advective freeze event will winds remaining up all night reducing the “greenhouse” effect of warmth from the earth’s surface. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get much above 40 degrees and with the center of the arctic high just NE of SE TX Sunday night, maximum cold conditions can be expected with clear skies and calm winds. Will likely be looking at a hard freeze (25 or lower for 2 hours or more) for a good portion of the area Monday morning with temperatures into the mid 20’s along and N of I-10 and upper 20’s to the coast.

Take the time over the next few days to prepare for this cold weather outbreak and winterize outdoor items that require protection.

Jeff Lindner


Looking mighty cold for us(SE TX). Not a ton of moisture available this time, but if those snow maps come to fruition over the next 2 weeks, it will sure allow a lot of unmodified cold air to make it all the way to the coast. Not about to count on it, but with the apparent step down in temps coming, the next weeks could get interesting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3143 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:My wall appears to be working. 12Z Euro is 5 deg warmer for both the D-FW area and Houston. From 19F to 24F in DFW, from 26 to 30-31 in Houston. VERY interesting late-month ice storm across most of east Texas in the FV3-GFS. By interesting, I mean unlikely. We can almost trust the GFS for THIS weekend's weather, but as for January 30th - forget it.


hahaha Well Sir, your wall is about to come tumbling down!!! :cold: :cold: Right in line with the CFSV2, the EURO ENS is extrmely extraordinary for a long term mean!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3144 Postby Haris » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:51 pm

Can we please quickly get out of the hour 300 range lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3145 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:54 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:My wall appears to be working. 12Z Euro is 5 deg warmer for both the D-FW area and Houston. From 19F to 24F in DFW, from 26 to 30-31 in Houston. VERY interesting late-month ice storm across most of east Texas in the FV3-GFS. By interesting, I mean unlikely. We can almost trust the GFS for THIS weekend's weather, but as for January 30th - forget it.


hahaha Well Sir, your wall is about to come tumbling down!!! :cold: :cold: Right in line with the CFSV2, the EURO ENS is extrmely extraordinary for a long term mean!

http://i66.tinypic.com/eg9z5c.jpg


Good thing I don't live in southern Canada, then. Looks close to normal across SE TX in that graphic. My wall will hold!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3146 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:54 pm

Haris wrote:Can we please quickly get out of the hour 300 range lol.


Euro 192 brings down the hammer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3147 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:57 pm

wxman57 wrote:My wall appears to be working. 12Z Euro is 5 deg warmer for both the D-FW area and Houston. From 19F to 24F in DFW, from 26 to 30-31 in Houston. VERY interesting late-month ice storm across most of east Texas in the FV3-GFS. By interesting, I mean unlikely. We can almost trust the GFS for THIS weekend's weather, but as for January 30th - forget it.


Are you trying to roll out Bones in a winter thread?! Now wait just a damn minute. We let is slide for the tropics, but we cannot let this stand! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3148 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:12 pm

orangeblood wrote:CFSV2 has been a pretty useful model in the 10-20 day time frame and up until now, hasn't really jump on the Arctic Outbreak train....well it is now leading the charge!!! There appears to something pretty substantial brewing towards the end of the month

http://i67.tinypic.com/hteo87.jpg


Despite the day to variability with the models, and the board's mood swings, the EPS through day 15 still has a large bowl trough over North America and slowly retograding EPO ridge. The OP guidance and even at times ENS positioning of the ridge, though slight, creates the conundrums. But I would have faith that the pattern will deliver.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3149 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:My wall appears to be working. 12Z Euro is 5 deg warmer for both the D-FW area and Houston. From 19F to 24F in DFW, from 26 to 30-31 in Houston. VERY interesting late-month ice storm across most of east Texas in the FV3-GFS. By interesting, I mean unlikely. We can almost trust the GFS for THIS weekend's weather, but as for January 30th - forget it.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZEC-DFW.JPG

You consider that to be working? :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3150 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:48 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:My wall appears to be working. 12Z Euro is 5 deg warmer for both the D-FW area and Houston. From 19F to 24F in DFW, from 26 to 30-31 in Houston. VERY interesting late-month ice storm across most of east Texas in the FV3-GFS. By interesting, I mean unlikely. We can almost trust the GFS for THIS weekend's weather, but as for January 30th - forget it.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZEC-DFW.JPG

You consider that to be working? :lol:


It would be MUCH colder if my wall wasn't in place, perhaps near 10F in Dallas. I still need to add a few thousand feet to the top of the wall to keep all cold air out.

I'm not sure what is meant by the Euro bringing down the hammer at hour 192. For the D-FW area, the coldest temperature it has after this weekend is 31 degrees the following Saturday. Still not seeing any significant snow event for NE or SE TX through January, despite the 12Z FV3-GFS prediction. Maybe in February. There may be colder air available at the end of January.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3151 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:50 pm

Haris wrote:Can we please quickly get out of the hour 300 range lol.

The cold is setting in well within 300 hours. After Friday we will likely not see above normal temps for a very long time (depending on timing of the mid week front the southern half of Texas could briefly warm up on Tuesday) though that will be the last warm up for a long time. And along with the fronts moisture is going to be available.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3152 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:51 pm

NWS FTW

Big changes will commence as we head into Friday. The West Coast
trough will amplify and dig into the Rocky Mountains. This trough
will act to dislodge the Arctic air mass over the Laurentian
Plateau, driving it south across the Great Plains. As this trough
swings through the Southern Plains along with an associated PV
anomaly, large-scale ascent indicated by large Q-vector
convergence will increase ahead of the surging Arctic air mass.
The GFS indicates some instability with SBCAPE values approaching
1,000 J/kg, but the GFS has also been on the warmer side of the
model guidance. Given that its temperatures are likely too high
(as mentioned in the previous paragraph), these CAPE values are
likely too high as well. Still, some thunder will be possible if
not likely the farther south and east one goes, but the severe
weather potential appears minimal. As for the heavy rain
potential, the fast-moving nature of the upper-level trough should
minimize the heavy rain threat, but given recent heavy rains and
dormant vegetation, any areas that receive locally heavy rainfall
could see some minor ponding of water.

Saturday morning, THE cold front will arrive. An Arctic cold front
will slam into our northwestern counties early Saturday morning
and clear our southeastern counties by Saturday afternoon. Gusty
northwest winds are forecast behind the cold front, with 20-25
knot sustained winds looking likely, along with gusts in excess of
30 knots. If this forecast holds (and there does not appear to be
any major reason why it would not), a Wind Advisory would almost
certainly need to be issued 24 hours out during the Friday day
shift (criteria is sustained winds of more than 25 MPH, or 22
knots, for at least two hours). Given the very strong cold air
advection behind the cold front, high temperatures will be reached
at most locations during the morning hours (in some cases,
possibly even before daybreak), with temperatures falling
throughout the day. Some light precipitation may linger behind the
cold front, but it appears that this precipitation should be well
out of our area by the time temperatures fall below freezing late
Saturday evening. Perhaps there will be a very narrow window in
our far northeastern counties for a momentary transition to light
wintry mix, but even there, the chances are low, and impacts would
be negligible. Frozen precipitation has been kept out of the
official forecast given the very low probabilities and even lower
probabilities that there would be meaningful impacts.

Sunday morning looks to be one of the colder mornings in a while
for North and Central Texas with lows forecast to be in the 20s
for all of our forecast area, with lows possibly dropping into the
upper teens along the Red River. Northerly winds of 15-20 MPH will
likely still be present come Sunday morning as well, which will
lead to wind chills well down into the teens for many locations,
with wind chills potentially falling into the single digits along
and north of Interstate 20. Precautions to protect people, plants,
pets, and pipes will need to be taken no later than Saturday for
these very frigid temperatures and wind chills. As a climate note,
records appear safe and sound (the record for January 20 at both
DFW and Waco is 10 F), but with a forecast low of 23 F at DFW
Sunday morning, this would indeed be the coldest temperature of
the 2018-19 winter thus far. At Waco, the forecast low is 25 F,
which would only be the second coldest this season (it was 22 F
back on November 14, 2018), but still quite cold nonetheless. Sunday
Night should be cold as well with lows looking to dip down into
the 20s areawide once again as skies clear out, allowing for
excellent radiational cooling. Winds should be on the lighter side
though, which should take a little bit of the edge off, but it
will still be quite cold.

Temperatures look to rebound to near climatological normals for
mid-January by next week (highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s).
Rain chances may increase towards the middle of next week as our
progressive pattern continues, and another upper-level trough
swings into the Great Plains. This next weather-maker is too far
off to focus on specific impacts at this time, but slight chance
to chance PoPs were carried areawide to advertise the potential
for precipitation.


They lowered Friday's high to 64 and rain chances to 70%. Today we didn't make the forecasted high thanks to the clouds not clearing out as they had thought. As per the NWS I think highs for this weekend will come down as we get closer and Sunday my not make it out of the upper 20's, with a WC in the lower teens.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3153 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
wxman57 wrote:My wall appears to be working. 12Z Euro is 5 deg warmer for both the D-FW area and Houston. From 19F to 24F in DFW, from 26 to 30-31 in Houston. VERY interesting late-month ice storm across most of east Texas in the FV3-GFS. By interesting, I mean unlikely. We can almost trust the GFS for THIS weekend's weather, but as for January 30th - forget it.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZEC-DFW.JPG

You consider that to be working? :lol:


It would be MUCH colder if my wall wasn't in place, perhaps near 10F in Dallas. I still need to add a few thousand feet to the top of the wall to keep all cold air out.

I'm not sure what is meant by the Euro bringing down the hammer at hour 192. For the D-FW area, the coldest temperature it has after this weekend is 31 degrees the following Saturday. Still not seeing any significant snow event for NE or SE TX through January, despite the 12Z FV3-GFS prediction. Maybe in February. There may be colder air available at the end of January.

Cold vs very cold is still cold. Per the GEFS Texas does not go above normal after Fri through the end of the run and beyond truncation there is no sign of a warming trend. Feb could go down as one of the colder months in Texas history overall though it may not feature a singular record breaking day as there will be more moisture than is typical of an event like this. I doubt we see a single event like 1/16-18/2018 where most of us got down below 10 and some below 0. I see many days with highs in the 20s in our future with the warm days reaching when fronts get extra spacing, its those days that will have moisture allowing the next shot to produce highs in the 20s and snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3154 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:05 pm

Wxman only believes model output 5+ days out when they show warmth. You all know this. His heat-loving heart must be shivering at the sight of the ensembles. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3155 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:17 pm

I found wxman57. He's in hiding.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3156 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:25 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Wxman only believes model output 5+ days out when they show warmth. You all know this. His heat-loving heart must be shivering at the sight of the ensembles. :ggreen:

Very true. All signs point to an extended cold period but he will call as he sees it to give us an in-depth look at all things weather, good or bad. I like his style though. He will purposely ruffle our winter loving feathers to stoke our whirlwind of emotions. And as a result some well thought out and highly informative responses come out of everyone making this forum the one to follow!! So in a way his love of all things warm is a catalyst to defend our love of cold and it makes for great conversation and good natured ribbing. He is certainly wise enough to get us going to bring out the weather lovers in all of us with excellent results!! Now bring on the cold and snow!! :froze: :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3157 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:42 pm

gpsnowman wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Wxman only believes model output 5+ days out when they show warmth. You all know this. His heat-loving heart must be shivering at the sight of the ensembles. :ggreen:

Very true. All signs point to an extended cold period but he will call as he sees it to give us an in-depth look at all things weather, good or bad. I like his style though. He will purposely ruffle our winter loving feathers to stoke our whirlwind of emotions. And as a result some well thought out and highly informative responses come out of everyone making this forum the one to follow!! So in a way his love of all things warm is a catalyst to defend our love of cold and it makes for great conversation and good natured ribbing. He is certainly wise enough to get us going to bring out the weather lovers in all of us with excellent results!! Now bring on the cold and snow!! :froze: :froze:

Very well said.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3158 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:55 pm

Yes please to the 18z GFS for the 2nd straight day! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3159 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:04 pm

Someone has to do it!

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3160 Postby harp » Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:09 pm


Yeah, but look at the hour! LOL!
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