Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

That 18z is a big no...no snow for dfw, no snow for anyone!

[EnnisTx]

Someone has to do it!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_51.png

Not a chance!

[hriverajr]

That 18z is a big no...no snow for dfw, no snow for anyone!

I find it great hehehe...

[cheezyWXguy]

Someone has to do it!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_51.png

Normally it would infuriate me to see a storm like that south of Dallas, but I'll actually be in Austin that week. Bring it on!

[bubba hotep]

Someone has to do it!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_51.png

Yeah, but look at the hour! LOL!

Thus the sarcasm in my post.

[Cpv17]

I’m hearing conflicting stories regarding the cold snap. Lots of pro mets aren’t buying it and are stuck on the east getting the cold and we just get glancing blows here in Texas.

[dhweather]

I’m hearing conflicting stories regarding the cold snap. Lots of pro mets aren’t buying it and are stuck on the east getting the cold and we just get glancing blows here in Texas.

Always a possibility with these situations.

[dhweather]

IT'S ONLY 360 HOURS OUT!!!!!!

[Brent]

Someone has to do it!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019011518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_51.png

Nope unacceptable til we get ours

[spencer817]

love the FV3 trend, plus i finally figured out how to upload photos! It's a good night!

[Texas Snow]

If its behind a paywall then no but if its something he put on on Twitter or another public forum then yes.

[Rgv20]

18zGFS Ensemble Member #8.....Everyone is Happy!




Of note: since last evening the temperature in my area has been around 50-52 the NAM took the GFS/ECMWF to the woodshed with its temperature forecast. Will be interesting to see the NAM forecast as it gets in range with this weekends Arctic front. Last year and this year the NAM has been spot on down here with temperature forecasts after strong fronts.

[hriverajr]

http://i66.tinypic.com/k3t30g.png love the EPS mean, plus i finally figured out how to upload photos! It's a good night!

Does anyone know if it's ok to share ECMWF photos like this on these forums? I just never see them on here.

If you subscribe he allows a few if I am not mistaken. There is a limit per day.

[Ralph's Weather]

Its gonna be fun watching the meso and hi res models during this pattern. Doesn't take much of a wave finds some moisture and a partly cloudy day becomes a bit of snow here and there with no notice.

[spencer817]

If its behind a paywall then no but if its something he put on on Twitter or another public forum then yes.

Thanks, I changed it. Not taking any risks, the ECMWF maps are always a murky area.

[hriverajr]

If its behind a paywall then no but if its something he put on on Twitter or another public forum then yes.

Thanks, I changed it. Not taking any risks, the ECMWF maps are always a murky area.

yep.. those maps are not allowed.. I just read up on it. Otherwise

2.2 You may elect to purchase a Personal Forecaster subscription. An active Personal Forecaster subscription entitles one (1) user (“Personal Forecaster”) to use the Site and its contents and services for the Personal Forecaster’s personal, non-commercial use. A Personal Forecaster may re-publish Site Content on personal, non-commercial websites or social media channels, not to exceed five (5) maps per day, provided that the Personal Forecaster retains (i) identification of the creator of the Content, (ii) any resident copyright notices, (iii) a notice that refers to these Terms and Conditions, (iv) a URL or hyperlink to the page on which the Content is available from WeatherOK, and (v) the Site logo. A Personal Forecaster shall not crop the Content or remove the Site logo from the Content. A Personal Forecaster may download, view, print, and copy the Content and other downloadable items displayed on the Site for personal use only, provided that the Personal Forecaster maintains all copyright and other notices contained therein. Notwithstanding the terms of this Section, all use or sharing of ECMWF maps and content is strictly limited in accordance with Section 2.7.

[harp]

18zGFS Ensemble Member #8.....Everyone is Happy!

http://i67.tinypic.com/2ijh4k.jpg


Of note: since last evening the temperature in my area has been around 50-52 the NAM took the GFS/ECMWF to the woodshed with its temperature forecast. Will be interesting to see the NAM forecast as it gets in range with this weekends Arctic front. Last year and this year the NAM has been spot on down here with temperature forecasts after strong fronts.

#8 out of how many? LOL!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I’m hearing conflicting stories regarding the cold snap. Lots of pro mets aren’t buying it and are stuck on the east getting the cold and we just get glancing blows here in Texas.

Always a possibility with these situations.

It's possible. If the polar vortex comes to the Ohio river valley, while brutally cold there, we may not get below freezing here in SE Tx. I believe this was the case in Jan 2014.

[Ralph's Weather]

18zGFS Ensemble Member #8.....Everyone is Happy!

http://i67.tinypic.com/2ijh4k.jpg


Of note: since last evening the temperature in my area has been around 50-52 the NAM took the GFS/ECMWF to the woodshed with its temperature forecast. Will be interesting to see the NAM forecast as it gets in range with this weekends Arctic front. Last year and this year the NAM has been spot on down here with temperature forecasts after strong fronts.

NAM will almost always win in the less than 48 hour time frame in the 48 to 72 time frame it is a close race with the globals.

[Ralph's Weather]

I’m hearing conflicting stories regarding the cold snap. Lots of pro mets aren’t buying it and are stuck on the east getting the cold and we just get glancing blows here in Texas.

Always a possibility with these situations.

It's possible. If the polar vortex comes to the Ohio river valley, while brutally cold there, we may not get below freezing here in SE Tx. I believe this was the case in Jan 2014.

I remember that miserable stretch. I'll have to look and see what kind.of blocking was in place but inam thinking it was +PNA which ruined it.