Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

This is crazy. We go from potential snow flurries and temps in the 20's and 30's to a pacific front with not much cold air in a matter of hours. My head hurts.

Don't let the Heat Miser mess with your head, our NWS office is still on board with the cold for NTX. I'm building a wall in Waco to keep the cold up here and let south Texas melt into the GOM.

Well then I AM building a wall over OKC!

[wxman57]

This is crazy. We go from potential snow flurries and temps in the 20's and 30's to a pacific front with not much cold air in a matter of hours. My head hurts.

Don't let the Heat Miser mess with your head, our NWS office is still on board with the cold for NTX. I'm building a wall in Waco to keep the cold up here and let south Texas melt into the GOM.

I'm not saying there won't be a cold front moving through Texas, I'm saying that I see no sign of an Arctic cold front. A brief period of lows in the mid to upper 20s in the D-FW area is not much of an extreme this time of year. Keep an eye on the Northern Plains looking for the cold air. Nothing there now. It's way east over in Manitoba and Ontario.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

Yep. Lucy pulled the football away again.

We better cancel winter to be safe.

[gboudx]

Someone alert the FWD NWS that this is not an arctic front. They seem to think it'll be "arctic" based on the AM AFD today.

Meanwhile, a surface low tracking across the Red River
Valley around midnight/after will help to pull the long-awaited
and advertised surface arctic cold front into our west and
northwest counties just after midnight, before exiting Central
Texas by 12z Saturday or shortly thereafter.

[Ralph's Weather]

So believe models when they show warmth but not cold...got it!!

One op run=exactly what's going to happen!

This is also the *long-range* warm-biased GFS we’re talking about!

That being said, the NAM doesn’t have DFW going below freezing by Sunday...that can’t be a good trend right?

The latest NAM only goes out to Sat evening (Sun 0Z). It would def be a freeze if you extend out 12 hours to Sun morning. I see Sunday morning being in the mid to upper 20s for rural areas and near 30 for cities which matches up with the globals. No not frigid but cold still. Sat afternoon looks to be 30-35 with colder air above so key will be the track and speed of the low. The 12Z NAM is way faster with the low on Sat offering no hope previous runs and other models still hold the low back. I will be keying in on the NAM starting tomorrow and esp on Friday as we get into its sweet spot. We are in the awkward timing between when you are watching the globals for trends and transitioning to meso models for specifics. Once we get within 60 hours the specifics should become clearer.

[Ralph's Weather]

This is crazy. We go from potential snow flurries and temps in the 20's and 30's to a pacific front with not much cold air in a matter of hours. My head hurts.

Don't let the Heat Miser mess with your head, our NWS office is still on board with the cold for NTX. I'm building a wall in Waco to keep the cold up here and let south Texas melt into the GOM.

I'm not saying there won't be a cold front moving through Texas, I'm saying that I see no sign of an Arctic cold front. A brief period of lows in the mid to upper 20s in the D-FW area is not much of an extreme this time of year. Keep an eye on the Northern Plains looking for the cold air. Nothing there now. It's way east over in Manitoba and Ontario.

http://wxman57.com/images/obs.JPG

True Arctic front or not it will be cold with snowflakes likely for N and NE TX. An afternoon in TX with temps in the low 30s is cold no matter how you slice it. This event is before the pattern change so it is just a bonus to hold us over until the real deal hits next week and beyond.

[dhweather]

The 0Z and 06Z GFS are significantly warmer than previous runs. They reek of glancing blows, the vast majority of cold goes to the Midwest. Now I see why there's backtracking by various NWS offices.

So believe models when they show warmth but not cold...got it!!

Believe them when they are cold, believe them when they are warm, all to a reasonable degree.

[dhweather]

Only 384 hours out!

[Portastorm]

You know, it's funny thing ... a funny or peculiar stage we're at right now. We either think "the models are wrong and are struggling with the pattern beyond 3-4 days" or the alternative "the models trends are getting harder to ignore and maybe I'm the one whose not accepting reality."

[HockeyTx82]

The emotional swings on this site can't be good for my health.

My doctor asked me what all strenuous activities I do. I told him running, bike rides, walks, etc...

Need to include Storm2k on the list.

[SoupBone]

This is crazy. We go from potential snow flurries and temps in the 20's and 30's to a pacific front with not much cold air in a matter of hours. My head hurts.

Don't let the Heat Miser mess with your head, our NWS office is still on board with the cold for NTX. I'm building a wall in Waco to keep the cold up here and let south Texas melt into the GOM.

I'm not saying there won't be a cold front moving through Texas, I'm saying that I see no sign of an Arctic cold front. A brief period of lows in the mid to upper 20s in the D-FW area is not much of an extreme this time of year. Keep an eye on the Northern Plains looking for the cold air. Nothing there now. It's way east over in Manitoba and Ontario.

The Greater Houston Area went from mid-20's (yesterday's forecast), both Saturday and Sunday night, to 31-32 low temps.

32 is enough to run the mosquitoes off for a few days.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Only 384 hours out!


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/20190116%2012/gfs_z500a_us_53.png

This would leave me snowed in Colorado.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Don't let the Heat Miser mess with your head, our NWS office is still on board with the cold for NTX. I'm building a wall in Waco to keep the cold up here and let south Texas melt into the GOM.

I'm not saying there won't be a cold front moving through Texas, I'm saying that I see no sign of an Arctic cold front. A brief period of lows in the mid to upper 20s in the D-FW area is not much of an extreme this time of year. Keep an eye on the Northern Plains looking for the cold air. Nothing there now. It's way east over in Manitoba and Ontario.

The Greater Houston Area went from mid-20's (yesterday's forecast), both Saturday and Sunday night, to 31-32 low temps.

32 is enough to run the mosquitoes off for a few days.

Source region changed.

[orangeblood]

Only 384 hours out!

Only 168 hours out!

[harp]

Only 384 hours out!

Only 168 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011612/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Yeah, then it skips the next four frames!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS ensembles look pretty different from the OP. Still showing Cross-Polar flow

[South Texas Storms]

GFS ensembles look pretty different from the OP

Yep, the ensembles are much more reliable than the operationals right now...much more run-to-run consistency and agreement between them.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

GFS ensembles look pretty different from the OP

Yep, the ensembles are much more reliable than the operationals right now...much more run-to-run consistency and agreement between them.

Long range GFS and FV3 move the tropical forcing east in the pacific. I will post a map later, but the high west of Hawaii is vital i think. As it moves east, it brings the fire hose back. Need it to remain in the western pacific.

[bubba hotep]

06z FV3, at least the models are generating more fantasy maps to look at than last winter lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011606/fv3p_asnow_us_36.png

12z says to 06z, "Hold my beer!"

[Texas Snow]

Only 384 hours out!

Only 168 hours out!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011612/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

Ha, yeah If only...

Dammit, Bubba beat me to it by mere seconds