Texas Winter 2018-2019

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stormlover2013

Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3301 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:08 pm

nam sucks
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3302 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:17 pm

The NAM did really well on the last two snow falls up here. It really was the only one that did.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3303 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:25 pm

(Notice it is the DFW folks like me who are distasteful of the NAM because they’ve played the role as Lucy for us this year! :lol: :roll: )
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3304 Postby Texas Snow » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:38 pm

NWS FWD Took the Metroplex snow out of the forecast for Saturday after bringing it in this morning. :roll:
Last edited by Texas Snow on Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3305 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:39 pm

DFW Stormwatcher wrote:I haven’t seen the dramatic worst case scenario winter weather forecasts that fwd mentioned in the discussion this morning. By the language used they are not referring to this forum. Anyone know what social media forecasts nws fw keeps warning everyone to avoid?


"experts" get on Twitter, Facebook, etc and post one image of a model and imply it is factually happening, people believe it.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3306 Postby starsfan65 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:44 pm

Texas Snow wrote:NWS FWD Took the Metroplex snow out of the forecast for Saturday after bringing it in this morning. :roll:

Why did they take it out of the forecast?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3307 Postby gboudx » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:45 pm

Texas Snow wrote:NWS FWD Took the Metroplex snow out of the forecast for Saturday after bringing it in this morning. :roll:


Forecasted high temps have gone up as well. I blame wxman57 and his Canadian wall eh.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3308 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:46 pm

The European models (Euro, Rapid Euro, ICON and UKMET plus Australian) look better with a slower solution of the low tracking over N TX Sat morning. The North American models (GFS, GEM, NAM and RGEM plus JMA) are faster and further north. Generally the European suite of models is more accurate overall, but by tomorrow we will likely know which will be right.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3309 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:49 pm

18Z NAM has snow as far south as northern OK this weekend. I think you can forget this weekend as far as any serious snow potential. Wouldn't rule out a stray small snowflake as precip ends in the D-FW area on Saturday morning. Might have to strain to see one. Next opportunity would be next Wednesday, and I'd say chances aren't high at this time. It'll depend on the depth of cold air that drops down over Texas this weekend, to a degree (no pun intended).

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3310 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:54 pm

This afternoons NWS FTW update

Behind the cold front, strong northwesterly winds will usher
frigid, Arctic air into North and Central Texas. Sustained winds
of 20-30 MPH look pretty likely during much of the day Saturday,
with wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH expected. This would easily
meet our Wind Advisory criteria, thus if this forecast holds, a
Wind Advisory will be required by Friday Afternoon. Strong cold
air advection behind the front will mean that temperatures will
likely fall throughout the day, with many areas seeing their high
temperature during the morning hours. In fact, our hourly
temperature grids indicate 60 F at DFW Airport at the stroke of
midnight Saturday, with the temperature down to 45 F by daybreak,
and down to 37 F by noon.
Some precipitation looks to linger
behind the cold front, which always begs the question about winter
weather. The best chance for snow will be along the Red River
where temperatures may drop below freezing before the moisture
moves off to the east. The official forecast calls for a slight
chance to chance (20-40% chance) of a rain/snow mix for areas
along and north of U.S. Highway 380 on Saturday.
Given the
marginally freezing temperatures and relatively warm ground
temperatures, little to no accumulation is expected, maybe except
for on rooftops, tree limbs, and other elevated surfaces. The
greatest chances for accumulating snow (and again, these
accumulations would be very light if at all) will be the farther
north and east one goes.

Precipitation should come to an end areawide by sundown Saturday.
Lows look to drop into the 20s across all of our forecast area for
Saturday Night and Sunday Morning, with teens possible in a few
spots along the Red River. Northerly to northwesterly winds of
10-15 MPH will persist through Sunday Morning, leading to wind
chills in the teens across our entire forecast area. Wind gusts
over 20 MPH could even result in "instantaneous" wind chills in
the single digits north of the Dallas/Fort Worth area. Precautions
to protect people, plants, pipes, and pets will need to be
completed no later than Saturday afternoon to prepare for these
very cold temperatures. The official forecast low at DFW for
Saturday Night is 26 F, which is just one degree above the lowest
temperature observed so far this season (25 F back on November
14, 2018), so it`s safe to say that Saturday Night/Sunday Morning
will see some of the coldest temperatures we have seen so far this
season.


Sunday and Sunday Night will be cold once again, with Sunday
afternoon highs only getting into the low 40s, and lows Sunday
Night falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s for most locations.
Much lighter winds should take some of the bite away from the cold
however. That said, if you will be venturing outdoors Sunday
Night to say, watch the Lunar Eclipse, you will certainly want to
bundle up. Clear skies are forecast for Sunday Night, which should
allow for excellent viewing conditions of the eclipse.

Temperatures should moderate as we start off next week. Another
deep upper-level trough (which would bring below normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation chances) looks to
swing into the central CONUS by the middle of next week, but with
significant timing differences between models, the details remain
very unclear right now. The official forecast does however show a
cool down towards the middle of the week, along with increasing
rain chances.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3311 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:06 pm

As ive been reading all of the posts regarding this weekend I never really paid attention to the exactly how much the projected temps have risen until looking at the NWS forecast. Sunday was an eye opener. A high in the low 30s is now a high of 45. :lol: :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3312 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:07 pm

gboudx wrote:
Texas Snow wrote:NWS FWD Took the Metroplex snow out of the forecast for Saturday after bringing it in this morning. :roll:


Forecasted high temps have gone up as well. I blame wxman57 and his Canadian wall eh.


Jump forward to about the 0:50 mark...... about how I feel right about now. Just put in latest model runs for pension irregularities

https://youtu.be/cEpKcBkkVMY
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3313 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:08 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:As ive been reading all of the posts regarding this weekend I never really paid attention to the exactly how much the projected temps have risen until looking at the NWS forecast. Sunday was an eye opener. A high in the low 30s is now a high of 45. :lol: :roll:


I know the cold isn't even impressive anymore :lol: I really hope the second half of met winter is better than the first half was.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3314 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:20 pm

Brent wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:As ive been reading all of the posts regarding this weekend I never really paid attention to the exactly how much the projected temps have risen until looking at the NWS forecast. Sunday was an eye opener. A high in the low 30s is now a high of 45. :lol: :roll:


I know the cold isn't even impressive anymore :lol: I really hope the second half of met winter is better than the first half was.



No kidding. Not all of the flying stinging things were killed with out only significant cold snap. I was hoping for that 48-60 hours of below freezing to be right, TO KILL ALL THE FLYING STINGING THINGS, THEY MUST DIE!!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3315 Postby SoupBone » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:27 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:As ive been reading all of the posts regarding this weekend I never really paid attention to the exactly how much the projected temps have risen until looking at the NWS forecast. Sunday was an eye opener. A high in the low 30s is now a high of 45. :lol: :roll:


Temps have been trending warmer for the last day now. It's going to get to a point where even the mosquitoes don't care!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3316 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:32 pm

I think we just need to pay attention to our source region (western Canada). Whenever it gets to -30 or below that then I think I might actually believe that it’s going to get cold here. The Northwest Territories, British Columbia, & Alberta need to be a complete ice box. Then after that the cold needs to go into Wyoming instead of the Dakotas.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3317 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:33 pm

In the "for what its worth" category, the 18Z GFS is running now, its out to 204 hours and has 1045mb coming down over the wall.

This probably means wxman57 will build the wall higher.


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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3318 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:49 pm

18z GFS has a pretty significant front towards the end of next week, but once again the coldest anomalies are off to the east. Upper teens and low 20’s with snow all the way down to the Florida panhandle. Like I said earlier, the cold needs to come through Montana instead of the Dakotas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3319 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:06 pm

Ugly!!!

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#3320 Postby Cerlin » Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:08 pm


Still a rookie—is that temperature or pressure?
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