Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

Euro is no longer cold enough in DFW and is raining Saturday for the ultimate troll

They’ve got to be too warm...our last freezing rain event they completely overestimated temperatures getting closer to the event...

[wxman57]

FV3-GFS also has some snow across SE Texas

Careful how you interpret those maps. That's most likely cold rain with a bit of sleet that it is forecasting. Nothing at all winter weather-wise for SE TX in the "regular" GFS.

I'm still wondering where that "dry, dense Arctic" air the Fort Worth NWS office is mentioning is coming from. Upper 20s for lows is not Arctic air.

[Brent]

mid week storm isn't even close to anything this run on the Euro way too warm

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Interesting tweet. Could be why LR GFS keeps showing -PNA

Advancing on last tweet, but while, so far this winter, the amplification of the GWO has been lacking, the prediction is for a higher amplification through phase 5 and 6, as highlighted in the next wk. Note the anoms, in Jan, for those phases, especially phase 6. Cold & blocked! https://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/1 ... 37/photo/1

[Haris]

Seeing people in the NE complain about 3-6 inches of snow just makes me angry. There are plenty of people who dont ever see snow and plenty of people who see it way too often out of the year. They should be thankful just to have it much better than we do!

Don’t get me started. It infuriates me(!!!) The word of Patience doesn’t exist...

And the amount of complaints I’ve heard with the lack of snow in December are endless. So many stupid winter cancel posts from those areas. After mind you, 6” in November in places like NYC.

The world ends when they go without a major blizzard for a few weeks. SMDH !!!

[Cpv17]

FV3-GFS also has some snow across SE Texas

Careful how you interpret those maps. That's most likely cold rain with a bit of sleet that it is forecasting. Nothing at all winter weather-wise for SE TX in the "regular" GFS.

I'm still wondering where that "dry, dense Arctic" air the Fort Worth NWS office is mentioning is coming from. Upper 20s for lows is not Arctic air.

At this point in time, I would be thrilled just to see a few sleet pellets. That’s sad to say, but it’s true.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Alright 12z 240 hr Euro, lol. Lets see the output from that.

**Showing a massive bowling ball low that came from the Canada centered over SE Tx**

[Cpv17]

Alright 12z 240 hr Euro, lol. Lets see the output from that.

**Showing a massive bowling ball low that came from the Canada centered over SE Tx**

Yeah lol very interesting. I wasn’t expecting to see that. Has a decent amount of snow northeast of Dallas, centered near Paris. More in Oklahoma.

[Ralph's Weather]

Alright 12z 240 hr Euro, lol. Lets see the output from that.

**Showing a massive bowling ball low that came from the Canada centered over SE Tx**

A kink in the jet develops north of Hawaii and rides over top of the western NAM ridge and as it dive bombs from MT to TX it rapidly intensifies. Pretty bizarre look, not sure I have seen a bowling ball come out of the north before.

[hriverajr]

Alright 12z 240 hr Euro, lol. Lets see the output from that.

**Showing a massive bowling ball low that came from the Canada centered over SE Tx**

A kink in the jet develops north of Hawaii and rides over top of the western NAM ridge and as it dive bombs from MT to TX it rapidly intensifies. Pretty bizarre look, not sure I have seen a bowling ball come out of the north before.

That low intensification looks a bit bizzare to me. The only positive model in the latest set of runs is the GEFS ensembles which shows retrograding of the 500 mb trough in the means. Hasn't this "problem" been happening extensively over the past 2-4 years with coldest air being shunted to the east in the heart of the winter? We will see but if that east based cold pattern comes to fruition will take at least 7-14 days for a pattern shift which may take us well into Feb.

[wxman57]

Here's the 240hr EC Texas panel with precip type. No doubt about it, cold rain mixed with some sleet pellets for D-FW area if it verifies. Models have done so well at 240 hrs...

[Portastorm]

Alright 12z 240 hr Euro, lol. Lets see the output from that.

**Showing a massive bowling ball low that came from the Canada centered over SE Tx**

A kink in the jet develops north of Hawaii and rides over top of the western NAM ridge and as it dive bombs from MT to TX it rapidly intensifies. Pretty bizarre look, not sure I have seen a bowling ball come out of the north before.

That low intensification looks a bit bizzare to me. The only positive model in the latest set of runs is the GEFS ensembles which shows retrograding of the 500 mb trough in the means. Hasn't this "problem" been happening extensively over the past 2-4 years with coldest air being shunted to the east in the heart of the winter? We will see but if that east based cold pattern comes to fruition will take at least 7-14 days for a pattern shift which may take us well into Feb.

Yes, yes, yes!

That has been what I've been thinking as well. Seems like we play this "all we need is for the long-wave trough to retrograde and we're in business" game every winter. I remain hopeful for February but have all but given up on January.

[TheProfessor]

Well it took a long time, but I've finally been put under a winter storm watch here in Ohio. Crossing my fingers I will also get my first warning this weekend too lol.

[gpsnowman]

Well it took a long time, but I've finally been put under a winter storm watch here in Ohio. Crossing my fingers I will also get my first warning this weekend too lol.

Dude, you are in Columbus Ohio in winter. You're golden.

[TheProfessor]

Well it took a long time, but I've finally been put under a winter storm watch here in Ohio. Crossing my fingers I will also get my first warning this weekend too lol.

Dude, you are in Columbus Ohio in winter. You're golden.

Compared to what you guys get in the winter I am, but Columbus is kind of the laughing stock in the midwest, we seem to always miss out on the big storm except for a few times lol. It's one of the reasons why I'm thinking about moving to upstate NY after school. More snow and less dry during the winter. I said it before, I haven't seen a storm drop more than 6" of snow here in Columbus yet. I'm hoping that ends this weekend, but I have to put all my eggs in the Euro/Ukie right now(which aren't the worse models to have on your side.)

[gpsnowman]

Well it took a long time, but I've finally been put under a winter storm watch here in Ohio. Crossing my fingers I will also get my first warning this weekend too lol.

Dude, you are in Columbus Ohio in winter. You're golden.

Compared to what you guys get in the winter I am, but Columbus is kind of the laughing stock in the midwest, we seem to always miss out on the big storm except for a few times lol. It's one of the reasons why I'm thinking about moving to upstate NY after school. More snow and less dry during the winter. I said it before, I haven't seen a storm drop more than 6" of snow here in Columbus yet. I'm hoping that ends this weekend, but I have to put all my eggs in the Euro/Ukie right now(which aren't the worse models to have on your side.)

Upstate NY should do it. Lake effect city up there. It is strange though to not have a bigger snowstorm than 6" since you have been in Columbus. Snow droughts are certainly a regional issue for sure!! I do have a feeling you will really enjoy the rest of winter in Ohio. Send pics if you can so we can live vicariously through you. Kinda like when you are on a low fat diet and see a commercial for a giant bacon cheeseburger and all you can do is drool.

[bubba hotep]

Alright 12z 240 hr Euro, lol. Lets see the output from that.

**Showing a massive bowling ball low that came from the Canada centered over SE Tx**

A kink in the jet develops north of Hawaii and rides over top of the western NAM ridge and as it dive bombs from MT to TX it rapidly intensifies. Pretty bizarre look, not sure I have seen a bowling ball come out of the north before.

That low intensification looks a bit bizzare to me. The only positive model in the latest set of runs is the GEFS ensembles which shows retrograding of the 500 mb trough in the means. Hasn't this "problem" been happening extensively over the past 2-4 years with coldest air being shunted to the east in the heart of the winter? We will see but if that east based cold pattern comes to fruition will take at least 7-14 days for a pattern shift which may take us well into Feb.

Yes, speculation it is a result of Hadley Cell expansion caused by warming Pacific and a reduction in sea ice. It's been a stubborn pattern to break ever since the Super Nino, but there have been a few cold snaps for Texas. However, sustained cold stretches have been hard to come by in winter here recently.

[TheProfessor]

Dude, you are in Columbus Ohio in winter. You're golden.

Compared to what you guys get in the winter I am, but Columbus is kind of the laughing stock in the midwest, we seem to always miss out on the big storm except for a few times lol. It's one of the reasons why I'm thinking about moving to upstate NY after school. More snow and less dry during the winter. I said it before, I haven't seen a storm drop more than 6" of snow here in Columbus yet. I'm hoping that ends this weekend, but I have to put all my eggs in the Euro/Ukie right now(which aren't the worse models to have on your side.)

Upstate NY should do it. Lake effect city up there. It is strange though to not have a bigger snowstorm than 6" since you have been in Columbus. Snow droughts are certainly a regional issue for sure!! I do have a feeling you will really enjoy the rest of winter in Ohio. Send pics if you can so we can live vicariously through you. Kinda like when you are on a low fat diet and see a commercial for a giant bacon cheeseburger and all you can do is drool.

Yeah it's been a pretty extreme snow drought even for Ohio's standards(although we were near average last year it doesn't make up how much below average we were my first 2 years). I missed two big time snow years right before I came here and it always makes me jealous lol.

[Brent]

A kink in the jet develops north of Hawaii and rides over top of the western NAM ridge and as it dive bombs from MT to TX it rapidly intensifies. Pretty bizarre look, not sure I have seen a bowling ball come out of the north before.

That low intensification looks a bit bizzare to me. The only positive model in the latest set of runs is the GEFS ensembles which shows retrograding of the 500 mb trough in the means. Hasn't this "problem" been happening extensively over the past 2-4 years with coldest air being shunted to the east in the heart of the winter? We will see but if that east based cold pattern comes to fruition will take at least 7-14 days for a pattern shift which may take us well into Feb.

Yes, speculation it is a result of Hadley Cell expansion caused by warming Pacific and a reduction in sea ice. It's been a stubborn pattern to break ever since the Super Nino, but there have been a few cold snaps for Texas. However, sustained cold stretches have been hard to come by in winter here recently.

I'm never listening to a winter forecast again This is pathetic

Well unless it forecasts warmth that is

[hriverajr]

A kink in the jet develops north of Hawaii and rides over top of the western NAM ridge and as it dive bombs from MT to TX it rapidly intensifies. Pretty bizarre look, not sure I have seen a bowling ball come out of the north before.

That low intensification looks a bit bizzare to me. The only positive model in the latest set of runs is the GEFS ensembles which shows retrograding of the 500 mb trough in the means. Hasn't this "problem" been happening extensively over the past 2-4 years with coldest air being shunted to the east in the heart of the winter? We will see but if that east based cold pattern comes to fruition will take at least 7-14 days for a pattern shift which may take us well into Feb.

Yes, speculation it is a result of Hadley Cell expansion caused by warming Pacific and a reduction in sea ice. It's been a stubborn pattern to break ever since the Super Nino, but there have been a few cold snaps for Texas. However, sustained cold stretches have been hard to come by in winter here recently.

That may be indicative that yes the planet is warming (I'm not going into manmade or not) If that theory was correct then our winters will not be meeting our expectations in the forseeable future.