TheStormExpert wrote:What once a few days ago was looking like a potentially potent arctic blast is now going to be nothing more than a quick cool down that we haven’t seen over a dozen times this winter.
Like I’ve said before, until the NAO goes negative (if ever) we won’t see the significant cold folks up north are dealing with.
From the looks of things as of this morning I highly doubt the NAO goes negative through the rest of this month. It’ll likely stay neutral to positive. Not sure what you’re seeing northjaxpro to drive the NAO negative, could you elaborate more?
You should be a skeptic when it comes to anomalous weather...which by definition means it is unusual. Florida (especially south florida) wouldn't look like florida if it routinely got cold. As I see it, until anomalous weather happens...it's busy finding a reason not to happen. This is why I don't believe arctic cold is on the way until it actually is. With a hurricane...show me an eye. With an arctic invasion...show me a front barreling toward me. Having said all of that..there is no doubt that the pattern indicates a heightened risk at what is already the most risky time of the year. that screams pay attention. more so than usual. This is the winter equivalent of watching the tropics in September with a favorable incoming MJO and CCKW. The risk is heightened at what is already the most risky time of year. As for what will happen...who knows. those are granular details impossible to decipher at this juncture. We could just get repeatedly scraped by chilly weather and end up with a couple weeks of jacket weather. Or we could get bombed with a doozy of a freeze event. We just have to wait and see.