Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Haris]

GEFS are not bad... 1.4" mean near Austin TX

[Quixotic]

00z 3k NAM actually looks really good with the surface 34-32F and the entire column below freezing.

March, 2010. Boo-yah.

[spencer817]

GEFS are not bad... 1.4" mean near Austin TX

Ah yes, us DFW folks sure love when SCTX has a much higher mean than here, that'll get our hopes up.

[Haris]

GEFS are not bad... 1.4" mean near Austin TX

Ah yes, us DFW folks sure love when SCTX has a much higher mean than here, that'll get our hopes up.

Long way to go on this one my friend... Something to track at least! Put it in that way and it is all good!

[Brent]

GEFS are not bad... 1.4" mean near Austin TX

Ah yes, us DFW folks sure love when SCTX has a much higher mean than here, that'll get our hopes up.

always hope for a NW trend hey its screwed us a bunch already about time one works

[TheProfessor]

GEFS are not bad... 1.4" mean near Austin TX

Ah yes, us DFW folks sure love when SCTX has a much higher mean than here, that'll get our hopes up.

always hope for a NW trend hey its screwed us a bunch already about time one works

Ah see, but that's where it gets yah. NW trends only happen when they screw you. When a NW trend benefits you the storm trends the opposite direction. The RGV better watch out!

[Brent]

Ah yes, us DFW folks sure love when SCTX has a much higher mean than here, that'll get our hopes up.

always hope for a NW trend hey its screwed us a bunch already about time one works

Ah see, but that's where it gets yah. NW trends only happen when they screw you. When a NW trend benefits you the storm trends the opposite direction. The RGV better watch out!

lol they used to work in my favor in Bama all the time

[Brent]

0z Euro

some flurries Saturday in the northern suburbs, nada in Dallas proper

No winter storm for most midweek, much faster moving than the GFS, some "snow" briefly does appear down east of Houston Wednesday morning

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Middle of the week is the perfect setup for snow in Central and SE TX but SE TX needs more cold air. Smh.

[wxman22]

I like the trend of the 0z Euro...fwiw

[Brent]

3km NAM doesn't look as good for DFW Saturday maybe still a few flakes briefly

Has a better snow band towards the NW that falls apart as it approaches which is fitting i suppose

[Cpv17]

I like the trend of the 0z Euro...fwiw

https://i.ibb.co/yYqpgpS/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019011800-129-490-155.png

If we could get temps about 5-7 degrees colder then we could really get something interesting here in SETX. The GFS and Euro are a tad too warm right now. There’s still plenty of time for better trends. Still 5 days out. Gotta keep the faith and be positive!

The FV3 has nice accumulations, but it doesn’t make any sense because it has temps in the mid to upper 30’s.

[Cerlin]

I like the trend of the 0z Euro...fwiw

https://i.ibb.co/yYqpgpS/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019011800-129-490-155.png

If we could get temps about 5-7 degrees colder then we could really get something interesting here in SETX. The GFS and Euro are a tad too warm right now. There’s still plenty of time for better trends. Still 5 days out. Gotta keep the faith and be positive!

The FV3 has nice accumulations, but it doesn’t make any sense because it has temps in the mid to upper 30’s.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011806/fv3p_asnow_eus_26.png

Man if that originated about 150 miles west of where it does on that map, lots of Texas would be having an insane storm!

[Cpv17]

I like the trend of the 0z Euro...fwiw

https://i.ibb.co/yYqpgpS/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019011800-129-490-155.png

If we could get temps about 5-7 degrees colder then we could really get something interesting here in SETX. The GFS and Euro are a tad too warm right now. There’s still plenty of time for better trends. Still 5 days out. Gotta keep the faith and be positive!

The FV3 has nice accumulations, but it doesn’t make any sense because it has temps in the mid to upper 30’s.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011806/fv3p_asnow_eus_26.png

Man if that originated about 150 miles west of where it does on that map, lots of Texas would be having an insane storm!

Maybe it still could. Who knows? It’s still 5 days out. Just need that trough to dig and deepen a bit more. If it does that then it would pull down colder air as well.

[orangeblood]

I like the trend of the 0z Euro...fwiw

https://i.ibb.co/yYqpgpS/us-model-en-087-0-modez-2019011800-129-490-155.png

If we could get temps about 5-7 degrees colder then we could really get something interesting here in SETX. The GFS and Euro are a tad too warm right now. There’s still plenty of time for better trends. Still 5 days out. Gotta keep the faith and be positive!

The FV3 has nice accumulations, but it doesn’t make any sense because it has temps in the mid to upper 30’s.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019011806/fv3p_asnow_eus_26.png

Man if that originated about 150 miles west of where it does on that map, lots of Texas would be having an insane storm!

Yep, spot on!! we're only talking 100-150 miles westward trajectory of that S/W allowing it to negatively tilt as it crosses the state. Still have time for movement given the system isn't coming onshore until Sunday, little embedded S/W's in the northern Pacific can make all the difference b/w storm or no storm and highly unlikely models can get it right from 5 days out. Plus, still several Euro and GFS ENS members showing a decent storm one way or another!

Need to keep it positive around here, this place is pretty miserable with too much negativity!

[bubba hotep]

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181319
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.AVIATION...
Low ceilings and areas of fog will prevail this morning but
stronger winds at the surface and aloft should allow for enough
mixing to produce MVFR/VFR ceilings later today. A strong capping
inversion will remain in place but moisture profiles look
sufficiently deep to offer up a few showers later today. A cold
front will cross the area between 07-11z and a broken line of
shra/tsra will be possible with a wind shift to the W-NW in the
wake of the front. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Changeable weather over the next several days with a couple of
fairly strong cold fronts moving across the area. Big changes
coming with passage of cold front tonight. Another front to bring
more rain to the area Tuesday into Wednesday.

Today and Tonight...
Another mild day on tap with increasing onshore flow and
temperatures rising back up to near 70. More humid air mass will
push farther inland with the entire area characterized by surface
dewpoints in the 60s by this afternoon. Relatively warm...humid
air mass remains over the area this evening in warm sector ahead
of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and maybe a
thunderstorm possible this afternoon as model soundings show
several hundred joules of MUCAPE with that increasing low level
moisture. Have kept in mention of patchy fog everwhere early...but
all day and evening near the coast as could see a sea fog
component as surface dewpoints exceed water temperatures.
Overnight cold front sweeps through from NW to SE. All convective
allowing models show a line of showers and possibly thunderstorms developing
along front over SE Texas after midnight then pushing quickly
offshore by daybreak. Given thin fast moving line would expect
rainfall amounts generally half inch or less.

Saturday and Sunday...
Breezy and colder Saturday with highs in upper 40s north...50s
elsewhere. The wind will make it feel colder than that. Saturday
night expecting a freeze most areas away from the water...although
not a hard freeze that was expected from model runs earlier in
the week. Lows should range from upper 20s north to lower 30s
south...but staying above freezing near and downstream of water. A
wind advisory may be needed some areas for Saturday. See marine
discussion for watches...warnings and advisories over the waters.
Surface high builds in on Sunday with diminishing winds and
continued cool conditions.

Monday through Friday...
Flow becomes onshore advecting in a warmer more humid airmass
starting Monday and continuing Tuesday. ECMWF and GFS models in
fairly close agreement with a cold front pushing from NW to SE
across the area on Tuesday...bringing more showers and possibly a
thunderstorm. Stong offshore flow expected again on Wednesday
with colder windy conditions behind the front. Should continue
cool and dry for late next week. 18

MARINE...
Winds will back to the south this morning and gradually increase as
another surface low develops in the TX panhandle. A moderate to
strong onshore flow is expected tonight and a SCEC or SCA will
likely be required. The low over the panhandle will drag a cold
front across the coastal waters late tonight as the low moves toward
the Ohio valley. A strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of
the front and will issue a Gale Watch for the Gulf waters. An SCA
will be required for the adjacent bays and will issue that later
today. The strong offshore winds will push water away from the coast
and a Low Water Advisory may also be needed Sat night into Sunday.
High pressure will be east of the area Sunday night and onshore
winds will return. Moderate to strong onshore winds are expected
Monday night into Tuesday ahead of the next storm system. Another
strong cold front will push across the coastal waters Tuesday night.
Strong offshore winds in the wake of this front will again prompt an
SCA or possibly a Gale Watch.

Still watching to see if sea fog develops. Dew points are in the
lower 60`s and waters are in the upper 50`s so there is some
potential for sea fog as surface winds back to the south. Web
cameras and obs don`t show fog over the water and will continue to
watch trends. Fog threat will end with the cold frontal passage
later tonight. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 72 45 50 32 53 / 30 50 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 53 55 33 54 / 40 70 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 56 57 38 51 / 30 70 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Austin...Brazoria Islands...Brazos...
Burleson...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands...Waller...Washington.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island
to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...18
Aviation/Marine...43

[TeamPlayersBlue]

If i had to draw up a scenario for snow, this is it. I would HATE for this to be wasted in the middle of January.

[Ntxw]

If i had to draw up a scenario for snow, this is it. I would HATE for this to be wasted in the middle of January.

I thought about doing a re-analysis of some past events to compare, however still offline are the NOAA products.

[orangeblood]

Hopefully, we start seeing GFS and Euro trending towards our Crazy Canadian Uncle this morning!!