Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Yukon Cornelius]

Winds are howling and temp is dropping.

[Brent]

the gfs has even a more strong trough!

But the cold is really lacking!! This is the PERFECT set - up. I swear, missing this and getting rain instead will piss me off......... This really is a good set up. Ugh... Come on cold (!!!!)

I don't think it was ever supposed to snow down your way? Was it?

Think he's talking about the Wednesday storm

Oh and I'm surprised by the level of rain maybe a good sign

[Haris]

the gfs has even a more strong trough!

But the cold is really lacking!! This is the PERFECT set - up. I swear, missing this and getting rain instead will piss me off......... This really is a good set up. Ugh... Come on cold (!!!!)

I don't think it was ever supposed to snow down your way? Was it?

Think he's talking about the Wednesday storm

Oh and I'm surprised by the level of rain maybe a good sign

Yeah, Wednesday. I’d be a drunk coward to think snow here tomorrow LOL

[gboudx]

Had some lightning and thunder here in Rockwall just a bit ago. Good luck to those staying up or getting up early. I’m not.

[missygirl810]

Anyone seen the 00z 3k Nam? Can’t figure out how to post pictures tonight... but it’s really strange. It almost looks like a thin squall line/thunderstorm line that is snow instead of rain in NTX

For this newbie, does 00Z mean midnight? Sorry to ask lol

Hey sorry for the wait. The 00z is when the model started running (most have 00z 06z 12z 18z, some run twice a day at 00z and 12z). It uses UTC time (6 hrs ahead of us). So the 00z models runs at 6pm Texas time. Hope that helps. Btw the Nam shows the chance for snow in the 4am to 6am range

No problem and thanks to both of you very answering!! Thundering pretty good at my house now and the rain has started pretty heavily

[spencer817]

04z HRRR with some intense snow rates, also trending towards a back end wrap around.

[Texas Snow]

That’s the best I have seen.

[Cerlin]

That seems like a good trend especially if that’s less than 12 hours out.

[Brent]

That seems like a good trend especially if that’s less than 12 hours out.

seems surreal to me lol

[Texas Snow]

Just looked at this update from a little earlier:

Lastly, there remains a potential for lingering rain to
transition to snow in an area of wrap-around precipitation very
late tonight and early Saturday morning. I have extended the
mention of a rain/snow mix farther south from previous forecasts
based on latest high-res guidance. The RAP in particular has
persistently shown an area of isentropic ascent within an area of
sufficient saturation and steep lapse rates occurring across North
Texas as the upper low translates eastward. This would be a
favorable setup for a quick shot at some light snow or a rain/snow
mix across some of our northern counties, possibly as far south
as the DFW Metroplex. The most likely time for this to occur would
be roughly between 2-9am. With surface temperatures likely
remaining at or above freezing while precipitation falls,
accumulations or impacts are highly unlikely. If you manage to see
any snow, just enjoy it while it briefly lasts.

[spencer817]

These snow rates are about off the charts, quite literally:

[Texas Snow]

Can you get a sounding off that model on the site you used? I am curious how far above us freezing point hits. I would hate for that to be rain because otherwise that would be glorious even for 15 minutes.

[spencer817]

Can you get a sounding off that model on the site you used? I am curious how far above us freezing point hits. I would hate for that to be rain because otherwise that would be glorious even for 15 minutes.

Sounding for my house^ couldn't get the HRRR as they don't have soundings, but there's the RAP. I'm in NW Dallas County for reference.

[Texas Snow]

Can you get a sounding off that model on the site you used? I am curious how far above us freezing point hits. I would hate for that to be rain because otherwise that would be glorious even for 15 minutes.

http://i65.tinypic.com/288wa2x.png
Sounding for my house^ couldn't get the HRRR as they don't have soundings, but there's the RAP. I'm in NW Dallas County for reference.

You are pretty close to me. That sounding looks like it should work overall. Just need it to pan out with the intense precip.

Now I just need to go to bed so I can get up, but I’m not ready for bed (like every early morning snow event of my life)

[Ntxw]

0c 850s and below have advanced very quickly with the ULL. The surface hasn't caught up but aloft is moving quicker. It's definitely an ok profile for transition to snow in the morning, the big question mark is lift and if the band will hold together as it passes.

Currently in NW Texas and the southern Panhandle.

[Brent]

62 degrees out, why am I just not feeling it lol

[Texas Snow]

I’ve seen it happen. Went to bed in the 70’s, woke up to white.

My iPad is at 3%. Perhaps a sign to turn in so I can wake up in say 5 hours (based on hi-res for when likely to approach my house).

It may not be a winter wonderland, but I want to see flakes fly. lets do this!

[Captmorg70]

The hrrr has trended towards a touch more snow, especially along the RR. Looking at current radar and trying to match with hrrr I’d say what’s out towards Lubbock to Lawton is the band it brings our way. Now it’s just up to if it stays together( or possibly strengthens) and turns to snow when it gets to us in the next 4 to 6 hrs. The 4z hrrr has the line producing snow around WF. That’s what to watch for, for now.

[TheProfessor]

Good luck to you north Texas folks. The Deform band on this storm could be very impressive. Someone was throwing thundersnow around up here if the band reaches its potential.

[Cerlin]

62 degrees out, why am I just not feeling it lol

Not feeling like it’s 62 degrees out or not feeling like snow is gonna happen this time?