Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

Interesting, both the 00z GEFS and Euro EPS move the MJO into P6 but the NAM pattern they produce doesn't match up with what you would expect during +ENSO. A bit odd, esp. with +AAM. Maybe the ensembles will correct towards lower heights in the SW as we move forward in time or maybe the +ENSO low frequency state isn't strong enough to fore onto the large scale pattern? Ultimately, the SSW resulting in a lobe of the TPV being anchored over SE Canada might be crushing the pattern and not allowing for a typical +ENSO progression driven by tropical forcing.

And the 12z Euro flips to a look that I would expect given the progression across the Pacific. It replaces higher heights in the SW with lower heights. Now to see if the EPS follows.

Yep and closely aligns with the GEFS...given the ongoing pattern evolution, this is exactly what you want to see in the 7-10 day range

[Cpv17]

Interesting, both the 00z GEFS and Euro EPS move the MJO into P6 but the NAM pattern they produce doesn't match up with what you would expect during +ENSO. A bit odd, esp. with +AAM. Maybe the ensembles will correct towards lower heights in the SW as we move forward in time or maybe the +ENSO low frequency state isn't strong enough to fore onto the large scale pattern? Ultimately, the SSW resulting in a lobe of the TPV being anchored over SE Canada might be crushing the pattern and not allowing for a typical +ENSO progression driven by tropical forcing.

And the 12z Euro flips to a look that I would expect given the progression across the Pacific. It replaces higher heights in the SW with lower heights. Now to see if the EPS follows.

May I ask you a question sir? What does AAM mean?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Interesting, both the 00z GEFS and Euro EPS move the MJO into P6 but the NAM pattern they produce doesn't match up with what you would expect during +ENSO. A bit odd, esp. with +AAM. Maybe the ensembles will correct towards lower heights in the SW as we move forward in time or maybe the +ENSO low frequency state isn't strong enough to fore onto the large scale pattern? Ultimately, the SSW resulting in a lobe of the TPV being anchored over SE Canada might be crushing the pattern and not allowing for a typical +ENSO progression driven by tropical forcing.

And the 12z Euro flips to a look that I would expect given the progression across the Pacific. It replaces higher heights in the SW with lower heights. Now to see if the EPS follows.

May I ask you a question sir? What does AAM mean?

ATMOspheric Angular Momentum ... I’ve tried to understand it granularly, but when you think you do, you see results that are the opposite of what you think.

I’m sure there are some here that can do it well.

[Cpv17]

I don’t agree with this.

[spencer817]

I don’t agree with this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Because it doesn't fit your liking?
I think it would make sense from a climo standpoint if we didnt see snow this year of any significance anyways, 1997-2000 were during after the last Super Nino and they are eerily similar. I don't like to be a pessimist, but weather repeats itself, its ebbs and flows.

[Cpv17]

I don’t agree with this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Because it doesn't fit your liking?
I think it would make sense from a climo standpoint if we didnt see snow this year of any significance anyways, 1997-2000 were during after the last Super Nino and they are eerily similar. I don't like to be a pessimist, but weather repeats itself, its ebbs and flows.

No. I don’t agree with it because the models are showing something different. The Euro and FV3 both send a pretty potent Artic blast right down the center of the country and into Texas, not the east.

[Ntxw]

And the 12z Euro flips to a look that I would expect given the progression across the Pacific. It replaces higher heights in the SW with lower heights. Now to see if the EPS follows.

May I ask you a question sir? What does AAM mean?

ATMOspheric Angular Momentum ... I’ve tried to understand it granularly, but when you think you do, you see results that are the opposite of what you think.

I’m sure there are some here that can do it well.

Atmospheric Angular Momentum. +AAM is convection moving from out of the IO into the west Pacific. You get descending HP in East Asia and a strong Aleutian low. +AAM is a closer association to atmospheric Nino patterns. The reverse for -AAM (Nina-esque). MJO is somewhat tied to this feature.

In black and white definition of course, there is a high variance in between.

[Haris]

I don't bother to look at the FV3. It's worse than the old GFS IMO. Other pro mets like Eric Fisher and crankywxguy have noted the same and have called it 'flaming piece of trash'. We'll see what happens. Remember to not buy the very cold solutions and it's still several days out.

However, I am watching the period around the 30th of this month for maybe some winter wx.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don’t agree with this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Because it doesn't fit your liking?
I think it would make sense from a climo standpoint if we didnt see snow this year of any significance anyways, 1997-2000 were during after the last Super Nino and they are eerily similar. I don't like to be a pessimist, but weather repeats itself, its ebbs and flows.

No. I don’t agree with it because the models are showing something different. The Euro and FV3 both send a pretty potent Artic blast right down the center of the country and into Texas, not the east.

Wouldn’t put any belief in those models right now CPV17. As dhweather, portastorm and NDG have already mentioned the euro and gfs have been horrible 5-10 days out. Not sure where you are located but many of us would be sitting in the middle of a deep freeze right now if they would have been correct. For us in south la we are at 50 today and will be pushing 70 by Tuesday, not anything remotely close to what they were showing a week out.

[Haris]

Flurries at least now on GFS

[Yukon Cornelius]

Good temp bust today. The forecast was 54-56 depending on the source and our actual high was 48.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models continue to be very consistent with showing a chaneover to snow Wed morning from C TX through E TX with max amounts on ensemble members generally under 2 inches. This has big bust potential high and low. I think DFW will miss and it likely stays N of Houston. A couple degress throughout the atmo makes the difference as usual. By far the best chance for eastern Texas so far this season.

[dhweather]

I don’t agree with this.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif

Because it doesn't fit your liking?
I think it would make sense from a climo standpoint if we didnt see snow this year of any significance anyways, 1997-2000 were during after the last Super Nino and they are eerily similar. I don't like to be a pessimist, but weather repeats itself, its ebbs and flows.

It certainly fits the "glancing blow" model we've grown to love.

[Cpv17]

You guys are making me feel dumb and I’ll eat my crow if I’m wrong, but my intuition is telling me something significant is heading our way. We need to watch the time period between the 28-31 imo. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if someone in Texas (outside the panhandle) actually picks up more than one or two inches of snow. Now let’s hope the models don’t lose it.

[Brent]

You guys are making me feel dumb and I’ll eat my crow if I’m wrong, but my intuition is telling me something significant is heading our way. We need to watch the time period between the 28-31 imo. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if someone in Texas (outside the panhandle) actually picks up more than one or two inches of snow. Now let’s hope the models don’t lose it.

I hope you're right but we've been burned so many times already its hard to get too excited

[Cpv17]

You guys are making me feel dumb and I’ll eat my crow if I’m wrong, but my intuition is telling me something significant is heading our way. We need to watch the time period between the 28-31 imo. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if someone in Texas (outside the panhandle) actually picks up more than one or two inches of snow. Now let’s hope the models don’t lose it.

I hope you're right but we've been burned so many times already its hard to get too excited

Because of the models inconsistencies, I’ve learned that I can still get excited about something that’s 7-10 days out, but I’ve learned that I should proceed with caution and not completely buy into it. It’ll save you some heartbreak.

[hamburgerman7070]

Bubba, did the 12z eps match the low heights in the sw? Perhaps i missed it if you posted it.

[Brent]

The eps mean has basically zero snow for Dallas through Super Bowl Sunday

[gpsnowman]

You guys are making me feel dumb and I’ll eat my crow if I’m wrong, but my intuition is telling me something significant is heading our way. We need to watch the time period between the 28-31 imo. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if someone in Texas (outside the panhandle) actually picks up more than one or two inches of snow. Now let’s hope the models don’t lose it.

Man, never feel dumb posting on here, your enthusiasm is infectious. You know your weather. As we all know, winter precipitation is extremely difficult to come by in DFW and most areas of Texas. Most of us want cold and snow and most of the time it does not come to be regardless of what models show. All we can do is look at the models and try to interpret them as best as possible. That is what this forum is all about. If we all nowcasted when a storm is directly over us, this forum would lose much of its luster. Just continue doing what you do.

[gboudx]

If the FV3 GFS were to verify, it would cripple the New Orleans metro area.

No worries, the officials in the game today already crippled New Orleans.