Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

12z GFS drops a cutoff into the SW but of course there is no cold air to be found lol

[Quixotic]

The 06z FV3 does a good job of demonstrating how we can get snow in N. Texas with an unfavorable location of the TPV. It rotates a S/W around the periphery of the TPV with a favorable jet streak.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019012106/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_33.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019012106/fv3p_z500_vort_namer_33.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019012106/fv3p_uv250_namer_33.png

This. Those type of systems are more consistently modeled and bring widespread albeit light accumulations. Plus the ratios are usually more juicy.

[bubba hotep]

Blowtorch rain to open Feb...

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah...I wouldn't trust the operational GFS at all right now. Totally disagrees with every other model, including its own ensemble.

[orangeblood]

Blowtorch rain to open Feb...

Don't think we need to worry about cold looking at the teleconnections, moisture is the issue!!

[wxman57]

I'd love to believe the GFS forecast of lows in the mid 60s and highs in the 70s for early February. However, with each model coming up with a different solution after 72 hrs, I don't know what model to trust for next weekend and beyond. FV3 always forecasts colder than current GFS. Canadian is the real cold-mongering model, burying east TX and northern LA under heavy snow early next week with temps in the teens across Houston and down to 3 degrees in Dallas next Wednesday.

[harp]

12Z GFS shows the motherload of cold moving south at the end of the run.

[Haris]

Despite a generally boring winter, we've still have reached 200 pages! Wooo!

[jaguars_22]

WXMAN57 do you think anyone will see any sleet wednesday? Im in victoria

[wxman57]

WXMAN57 do you think anyone will see any sleet wednesday? Im in victoria

Yes, someone will see sleet on Wednesday, but it probably won't be you if you're in Victoria. Models are indicating above-freezing temps below 12,000 ft over Victoria.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Several EPS members show light snow in C/E TX Wed AM. NWS has not mentioned it once. 90% have some snow in the eps members.

NWS doesn't have temps anywhere near where it could snow. Wonder what they're looking at.

[jaguars_22]

Thank you so much! Maybe you in houston can get some flurries

[bubba hotep]

Just for fun (take heed of all the warnings from the doo gooders that try to warn you of the dangers of sharing snow maps!)

[Ralph's Weather]

Just for fun (take heed of all the warnings from the doo gooders that try to warn you of the dangers of sharing snow maps!)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019012112/gem_asnow_scus_40.png

One of these is bound to come together this year with the level of blocking we are seeing combined with an active STJ.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Just for fun (take heed of all the warnings from the doo gooders that try to warn you of the dangers of sharing snow maps!)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019012112/gem_asnow_scus_40.png

Move that about 250 miles west. K thx.

[SoupBone]

I'd love to believe the GFS forecast of lows in the mid 60s and highs in the 70s for early February. However, with each model coming up with a different solution after 72 hrs, I don't know what model to trust for next weekend and beyond. FV3 always forecasts colder than current GFS. Canadian is the real cold-mongering model, burying east TX and northern LA under heavy snow early next week with temps in the teens across Houston and down to 3 degrees in Dallas next Wednesday.

Haha, wouldn't that be fun?

[hriverajr]

Just for fun (take heed of all the warnings from the doo gooders that try to warn you of the dangers of sharing snow maps!)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019012112/gem_asnow_scus_40.png

Move that about 250 miles west. K thx.

Southwest.. considerably hehe

[Cpv17]

Just for fun (take heed of all the warnings from the doo gooders that try to warn you of the dangers of sharing snow maps!)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019012112/gem_asnow_scus_40.png

Move that about 250 miles west. K thx.

Southwest.. considerably hehe

Yes please

[bubba hotep]

Slight westward expansion of the precip field on the 12z Euro and still showing light snow across the eastern 1/3 of DFW on Wednesday morning.

[orangeblood]

Latest GEFS still look decent for next week...GFS Operational appears to be outlier! Get the ULL to retrograde from the X over to the check mark and things should begin to look better for next week. I'd feel more confident if the Euro Op sticks to this look as well!