bubba hotep wrote:The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!
https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif


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bubba hotep wrote:The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!
https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif
harp wrote:bubba hotep wrote:The new Euro Weeklies are Lit!
https://media.giphy.com/media/11KgddPnJzcipW/giphy.gif
Explain please.
orangeblood wrote:Brent wrote:harp wrote: Explain please.
Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol
No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!
Brent wrote:orangeblood wrote:Brent wrote:
Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol
No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!
I'm so done with long range models nothing but a bunch of fake news lol
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:Brent wrote:
Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol
No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!
I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:Brent wrote:
Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol
No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!
I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.
hamburgerman7070 wrote:Orangeblood, our only opportunity is if we can develop a west based nao. Otherwise, like i previously mentioned, good night irene.
Ntxw wrote:I think the reason we have seen some discrepencies between the AAM and some models not matching up/volatile is likely because of the divergence in the Maritime continent/Indonesia. This is unusual for a Nino event but it should relax and the Pacific takes over. Natural retrogression and STJ amplification. Lots of mumbo jumbo.
https://images2.imgbox.com/97/7e/H9zAtRRK_o.gif
wxman57 wrote:missygirl810 wrote:wxman57 wrote:You folks up in the D-FW area may need to head south to Pensacola, FL to see some snow next week.
Since it is your fault, you are paying for said trip!!!!![]()
Sorry, that part of the government is currently shut down. No money available. If we DO get lows in the Gulf with cold weather inland, then the snow would be closer to the coast rather than up in NE TX. Snow in the D-FW area would have to come from a different mechanism, or a low much farther north (inland).
orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:
No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch mean 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!
I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.
Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.
Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter
Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.
bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
I don't know, I was much more pleased with the 500mb progression across the NHEMI than any of the recent runs, but that is just me.
Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter
Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.
Brent wrote:orangeblood wrote:Brent wrote:
Have they ever not been lit in this tease of a winter lol
No kidding, the weeklies feel like Ground Hog day as well...same 1.5 to 2.0 inch 46 day DFW snowfall forecast and they've been showing it twice a week since the 1st of December. They are actually warmer than last run with a pretty big warmup for the 1st half of February than a cool down for the 2nd half!
I'm so done with long range models nothing but a bunch of fake news lol
hamburgerman7070 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Concerned about this pull back showing up in late Week 2-3....if that prolongs anymore than what it's showing, we'll only have about a 2-3 week shotclock left in winter
Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.
Bubba, so we would be better off without the TPV at all? Am i understanding you correct?
bubba hotep wrote:hamburgerman7070 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:
Kind of like '15? The Euro EPS has been quick to jump on the warm up beyond D10 but it is getting hard to ignore at this point. Maybe it never materializes? However, if we have to go through a warm up as part of the pattern change needed to move out the TPV, then it will probably be worth it in the long run. It seems like every favorable looking system ends up getting crushed by the TPV.
Bubba, so we would be better off without the TPV at all? Am i understanding you correct?
In it's current position, IMHO, yes. It is doing two things (really one continuous thing but it easier to break it down). 1st, it is preventing any system from amping up as it comes out into the Southern Plains and everything is getting sheared into the base of the TPV and we end up with positive tilted trash. 2nd, on the flip side, it is impacting the N. Atlantic pattern wave breaking and not allowing for a true stable -NAO to setup. Obviously, this is a gross oversimplification of things and a lot more goes into the pattern than this.
bubba hotep wrote:Remember all those cold January calls? The weather doesn't care about our predictions but maybe we rally over the next 10 days?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxfEWV4UcAAkYkX.jpg
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:The warm up i think may have alot to do with the MJO progressing through a not so favorable phase.
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