Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

12Z Canadian and 12Z GFS both indicate a very narrow window when some snowflakes could reach the ground in NE TX. Time would be between 10pm and 6am tonight. It really doesn't look TOO good on the sounding. Snow falling into a rapidly-drying lower 8000 ft of the atmosphere. Not sure if any will reach the ground. Surface temps projected to be in the mid 30s. Better chance east of the D-FW area.

Take a look at the projected sounding from the 12Z GFS for midnight tonight at DFW airport Precip is indicated (snow) way up between 620mb and 500 mb (14,000-18,000 ft up). Below that, though is quite dry air with a surface temp of 42 deg. By 12Z the whole air column is dry. This would suggest tiny snowflakes falling for 12,000 ft in above-freezing air over DFW. Like I said, better chance farther east.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z Canadian and 12Z GFS both indicate a very narrow window when some snowflakes could reach the ground in NE TX. Time would be between 10pm and 6am tonight. It really doesn't look TOO good on the sounding. Snow falling into a rapidly-drying lower 8000 ft of the atmosphere. Not sure if any will reach the ground. Surface temps projected to be in the mid 30s. Better chance east of the D-FW area.

Yep, been watching this for a while. Models are very consistent in showing this, but the line between temps falling and precip exiting is very fine. If the precip can hold on we have a chance. there is a 850mb warm layer but it is dry so there would be some hope of it wet bulbing to close to freezing if the precip rates are high enough above 8k ft. Most likely I just get a hour or two of mix around 3am but I could also jackpot and see a couple inches in the 2am to 6am period.

Globals are focusing on NE TX and Meso/Hi Res on SE TX.

Here is the GFS at 6am tomorrow at my locale. This is as precip ends here so a couple hours prior the mid level dry air would not be so pronounced. The warm nose is minimal so mostly snow would be likely.

[losf1981]

We've had snow fall twice so I'm happy but I am greedy and was hoping for more. Seems like it's always "next week" that something major is going to happen.

Appreciate everyone's insight though and I've learned a lot in my short time here.

[Yukon Cornelius]

We've had snow fall twice so I'm happy but I am greedy and was hoping for more. Seems like it's always "next week" that something major is going to happen.

Appreciate everyone's insight though and I've learned a lot in my short time here.

We always seem to do pretty good in February through early March. I still have hope for another.

[MississippiWx]

Say what you will about Joe Bastardi, but he is rather good at pattern recognition. He is still convinced February and March will be very cold with the coldest temps relative to normal shifting to the Southern US. The models continue to correct the MJO. What could happen is that we stay relatively cold during the MJO warm phases thanks to the polar vortex lobe, and then the cold phases of the MJO arrive to keep the cold locked in place along with the negative NAO/AO. What almost seems certain is that the coldest temp anomalies in the world will be over North America for a while. Winter weather lovers should rejoice since cold air shouldn’t be lacking.

[South Texas Storms]

Say what you will about Joe Bastardi, but he is rather good at pattern recognition. He is still convinced February and March will be very cold with the coldest temps relative to normal shifting to the Southern US. The models continue to correct the MJO. What could happen is that we stay relatively cold during the MJO warm phases thanks to the polar vortex lobe, and then the cold phases of the MJO arrive to keep the cold locked in place along with the negative NAO/AO. What almost seems certain is that the coldest temp anomalies in the world will be over North America for a while. Winter weather lovers should rejoice since cold air shouldn’t be lacking.

Yep I agree. We just gotta hope it's not a dry cold...because dry cold is wasted cold.

[Cpv17]

I’ll be focusing my attention on next week. You guys can talk all you want about that LR stuff. Good luck with that verifying. There’s no telling what’s going to happen in mid February. It’s always 2 or 3 weeks out. It never happens.

[Ralph's Weather]

I’ll be focusing my attention on next week. You guys can talk all you want about that LR stuff. Good luck with that verifying. There’s no telling what’s going to happen in mid February. It’s always 2 or 3 weeks out. It never happens.

I'll focus on tomorrow morning and even that is a crapshoot Beyond that I think we will get good snow but whether that is next week or in a month is a question that is beyond me.

[Cpv17]

GFS warm bias is so bad in the short range. Heck, it does a better job on temps a week out than it does from 1 day out.
The low for my area on Thursday morning is 31 degrees and the GFS has me at 40

[Cerlin]

The 12z euro is so close to DFW snow in the next 24 hours...so so close...

[Cpv17]

The 12z euro is so close to DFW snow in the next 24 hours...so so close...

It’s just a good ole tease

[Brent]

The 12z euro is so close to DFW snow in the next 24 hours...so so close...

It’s just a good ole tease

another tease next Monday Night it appears

so close but not quite

[Ralph's Weather]

As usual this front is faster and colder than models show. Maybe we can get lucky, helps that the parent high is to our west so the front is not blocked by the OK and AR mountains like is typical, but wish the parent low was further south. Helping that the northern shortwave is not racing off like models showed a couple days ago. Also interesting is the band of precip in W OK and W TX, that is not on any of the models.

[losf1981]

It was 61 when I left for lunch. 50 when I got back to my office. Guess a front came through

[wxman57]

The 12z euro is so close to DFW snow in the next 24 hours...so so close...

It’s just a good ole tease

another tease next Monday Night it appears

so close but not quite

That's how it usually is in Houston. Temps get cold enough right about the time the precip ends. Only 0.7" of snow last winter and just a trace so far this winter here in Houston.

[weatherdude1108]

Aside from doldrum Winter here in Texas so far, can't even get excited about the SPC forecasts anywhere in the country right now.

This is the shortest extended convective outlook from the SPC I have ever seen, I think.

Good time for a short furlough.


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220912
SPC AC 220912

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An enormous upper trough will remain situated over much of North
America, providing cool and stable conditions through the D8 period.
As a result, thunderstorms are unlikely.

..Jewell.. 01/22/2019

[Snowflake7]

Hello everyone! Hows everything coming along? Are we going to see any action anytime soon? I'm not losing faith just yet. Ready for a real cold winter to arrive.

[Lagreeneyes03]

Hello everyone! Hows everything coming along? Are we going to see any action anytime soon? I'm not losing faith just yet. Ready for a real cold winter to arrive.

Cold does us no good if it's dry.

[Snowflake7]

Hello everyone! Hows everything coming along? Are we going to see any action anytime soon? I'm not losing faith just yet. Ready for a real cold winter to arrive.

Cold does us no good if it's dry.

Ill pray for the cold you pray for the moisture BOOM winter!

[Portastorm]

Hello everyone! Hows everything coming along? Are we going to see any action anytime soon? I'm not losing faith just yet. Ready for a real cold winter to arrive.

Cold does us no good if it's dry.

Ill pray for the cold you pray for the moisture BOOM winter!

From your lips to God's ears ...