Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, if the eps is correct in bringing the cold pattern back i guess based on the mjo progression, can we still have optimism moving forward that things could shift somewhat more favorable? Its been extremely progressive this winter. The TPV has probably hurt us also.

Cautious optimism is good. We're likely moving back into the Nino climatology (Feb) version. We just have to hope that the NAO manifests with a nice Pacific. Also not to lose all the cold.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, if the eps is correct in bringing the cold pattern back i guess based on the mjo progression, can we still have optimism moving forward that things could shift somewhat more favorable? Its been extremely progressive this winter. The TPV has probably hurt us also.

Cautious optimism is good. We're likely moving back into the Nino climatology (Feb) version. We just have to hope that the NAO manifests with a nice Pacific. Also not to lose all the cold.

Someone earlier in here said they read that the SSW event hasnt even made it to surface yet.

[Haris]

Brent, the gfs and euro along with ensembles are showing another snow event for AL and GA! They just had a foot last winter! Ugh. I pray for a bust LOL

[Brent]

Brent, the gfs and euro along with ensembles are showing another snow event for AL and GA! They just had a foot last winter! Ugh. I pray for a bust LOL

don't get me started lol it better dry up

[Haris]

Some of the GEFS members are interesting for mid week now.

[Cerlin]

Some of the GEFS members are interesting for mid week now.

Are they mainly centered around CTX or do they show stuff for NTX or ETX too?

[Brent]

Some of the GEFS members are interesting for mid week now.

Are they mainly centered around CTX or do they show stuff for NTX or ETX too?

looks like the mean is pretty much a dusting for a big area including DFW and even down to Houston, I see a couple that are more interesting up here

[Brent]

nada on the Euro anywhere through midweek, good snow to the east though even a nice band in Arkansas Monday Night

[Cpv17]

After taking a look at the 6z GFS, it looks like a -PNA is going to develop in about a week or so..

[orangeblood]

After taking a look at the 6z GFS, it looks like a -PNA is going to develop in about a week or so..

Yep, big change in the long range from 0Z to 6Z GEFS....believe it has some legs considering it has the EPS and GEPS backing!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

-PNA development is better than what it was before! Have to look at the MJO forecast

[wxman57]

GFS indicates virtually zero moisture associated with the front in the DFW area Tuesday night. FV3 GFS is similar, as are the Euro and Canadian. Possibly some snow in northern Louisiana with surface temps above freezing - similar to what we saw in Texas on Wednesday. Basically, this looks like a non-event (winter weather-wise) for us in NE and SE TX.

[Ntxw]

Indeed the ensembles are now showing the warm up as transient due to the shifting of the Eastern trough into a central-west trough. GOA lower heights is also somewhat muted now to ridge. Liking the trends for Texas.

[orangeblood]

Indeed the ensembles are now showing the warm up as transient due to the shifting of the Eastern trough into a central-west trough. GOA lower heights is also somewhat muted now to ridge. Liking the trends for Texas.

Yeah, you can see the southern stream starting to show up in the ENS as well...with a tanking AO/HP build to the north, it's a good recipe for Feb in the southern plains!

[Ntxw]

It is encouraging we are going to finally see the Nino low freq background state take over for the first time this winter without I/O and Indonesia interference. We have been yo-yo-ing between conflicting tropical forcings. Those who are well versed in Feb MJO and ENSO states will likely be happy at this change.

Most importantly the maritime continent changes.

[Ralph's Weather]

As we all have hoped Feb is looking very good right now. Hope that continue to be the case because it sucks seeing areas E getting all the fun. The Southern Plains have to have a Pacific connection for moisture in the winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It is encouraging we are going to finally see the Nino low freq background state take over for the first time this winter without I/O and Indonesia interference. We have been yo-yo-ing between conflicting tropical forcings. Those who are well versed in Feb MJO and ENSO states will likely be happy at this change.

Most importantly the maritime continent changes.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a0/28/jcQYVLQu_o.gif

Would that blob be located in phase 7 of the MJO?

Edit: I think the SSW literally threw a massive wrench in this ninos plans.

[orangeblood]

It is encouraging we are going to finally see the Nino low freq background state take over for the first time this winter without I/O and Indonesia interference. We have been yo-yo-ing between conflicting tropical forcings. Those who are well versed in Feb MJO and ENSO states will likely be happy at this change.

Most importantly the maritime continent changes.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a0/28/jcQYVLQu_o.gif

Would that blob be located in phase 7 of the MJO?

Edit: I think the SSW literally threw a massive wrench in this ninos plans.

Looks like Phase 7 on it's way to 8 towards the end of the run!

[Ntxw]

It is encouraging we are going to finally see the Nino low freq background state take over for the first time this winter without I/O and Indonesia interference. We have been yo-yo-ing between conflicting tropical forcings. Those who are well versed in Feb MJO and ENSO states will likely be happy at this change.

Most importantly the maritime continent changes.

https://images2.imgbox.com/a0/28/jcQYVLQu_o.gif

Would that blob be located in phase 7 of the MJO?

Edit: I think the SSW literally threw a massive wrench in this ninos plans.

I would not be too focused on the MJO. RMM diagrams can be misleading because it seldom captures conflicting signals when multiple standing waves occur. We have had this problem all winter which is why you 'see' the MJO continuously amp up from phases 4/5/6 then fade after 7 or 8 and pop right back to 4/5. We'll likely see a more robust low frequency tropical forcing more typical of an El Nino (air needs to also sink over Indonesia) to be true even if RMM shows a decaying MJO.

Remember 3/4/5 is Nina forcing while 7/8/1 is more Nino

[rwfromkansas]

Based on this year in which there is no model consistency, I will believe the -PNA showing up briefly in some models today once it's there for an entire week.