Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

As we all have hoped Feb is looking very good right now. Hope that continue to be the case because it sucks seeing areas E getting all the fun. The Southern Plains have to have a Pacific connection for moisture in the winter.

Even living a few states east is easier since they have more sources of moisture.

[Ralph's Weather]

As we all have hoped Feb is looking very good right now. Hope that continue to be the case because it sucks seeing areas E getting all the fun. The Southern Plains have to have a Pacific connection for moisture in the winter.

Even living a few states east is easier since they have more sources of moisture.

Agreed, though when El Nino gets the STJ cranking it can dump. Need a good -PNA with a -AO so we can get those prefrontal dumps of snow. Those are rare but this year has the right ingredients for it to happen.

[Brent]

Nothing mid week on the Euro but some light snow for DFW next Saturday morning

[bubba hotep]

Nothing mid week on the Euro but some light snow for DFW next Saturday morning

Lock it In!

[orangeblood]

Nothing mid week on the Euro but some light snow for DFW next Saturday morning

Lock it In!

Models have been having issues resolving the smaller S/W coming into Cali next week...with very cold air and strong HP draped across the plains, this system is intriguing - its what the Euro Control has been aggressive with on/off over past few runs! New Years Eve 2000!!!

Euro Operational and FV3 very similar for next Friday!

[Cpv17]

Is the PNA really forecasted to go negative? Someone have a graphic?

[srainhoutx]

The Climate Prediction Center Outlook for Week 3 and Week 4 suggest ENSO Neutral conditions are likely and a persistent West Coast Ridge and a rather deep trough situated to the East of the Rockies. Interesting to see the CPC suggest colder than normal temperatures across the Southern Plains and above normal rainfall across Southern half of Texas.

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Experimental Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 09 2019-Fri Feb 22 2019

ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. The CPC 200-hPa velocity potential based and RMM-based MJO indices indicate the MJO signal quickly propagated east from Africa to the Maritime Continent during mid-January. Dynamical ensemble model forecasts indicate the enhanced phase of the MJO signal progressing east across the West Pacific during the next two weeks. The Week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model guidance from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), ECMWF and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems and the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), an experimental multi-model ensemble (MME) of both operational and experimental dynamical models as well as statistical model guidance that uses correlations between indices for major modes of climate variability, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the temperature and precipitation over North America. The potential evolution of climate conditions from forecasts for Week-2 are also considered.

Dynamical model guidance from the various models is broadly consistent, depicting a trough over the Aleutians, while anomalous ridging is forecast over the western CONUS and extending northward through mainland Alaska. Downstream anomalous troughing is anticipated over the eastern CONUS. The ECMWF and JMA ensemble means favor near-normal 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii, while the CFS indicates negative 500-hPa height anomalies over Hawaii.

The Week 3-4 temperature outlook indicates increased probabilities of above-normal temperatures for the western half of the CONUS, with the greatest probabilities along the West Coast, supported by dynamical model forecasts, and in particular the SubX MME. Below-normal temperatures are most likely over the eastern half of the CONUS and parts of the Southern Plains, as indicated by the CFS, ECMWF and Subx MME. Anomalous ridging and positive 500-hPa height anomalies increase the chances of above normal temperatures over Alaska, with the greatest probabilities over the southeastern Alaska, consistent with most dynamical model forecasts.

With a mean ridge over western North America in dynamical model forecasts and northerly flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS west of a predicted trough axis, below normal precipitation is most likely over a broad area of the CONUS. Enhanced odds for above normal precipitation are indicated across southern Texas, supported by most dynamical precipitation tools and the Subx MME. Mean troughing over the Aleutian Islands in dynamical model forecasts leads to likely above normal precipitation for much of the southern coast of Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle, supported by precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF and JMA ensembles and the SubX MME.

Probabilistic forecasts from the SubX MME indicate likely above normal temperatures for the southeast islands, and near normal temperatures for the northwest islands. Consensus probability forecasts from the SubX MME indicate below normal precipitation is likely across the Hawaiian Islands, consistent with the low-frequency state over the tropical Pacific.

[Cpv17]

This is not indicative of a -PNA ...

[Ntxw]

12z EPS continues to advertise the shift from cold centering over Eastern Canada/GL region to Western Canada and the high Rockies/High plains. 500mb trough would include in essence a more robust STJ.

[dhweather]

Only 384 hours out! It can't be wrong again!!

[Portastorm]

We could put together a real nice coffee table book, large size in color, with our greatest "hits" from the 384-hour GFS. Oh it would show all kinds of Texas snowstorms, massive floods, and probably a CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!! or two.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

:uarrow:

We could put together a real nice coffee table book, large size in color, with our greatest "hits" from the 384-hour GFS. Oh it would show all kinds of Texas snowstorms, massive floods, and probably a CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!! or two.

We will title the book “Weather stuff: Lies and Damned Lies!!”

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

We could put together a real nice coffee table book, large size in color, with our greatest "hits" from the 384-hour GFS. Oh it would show all kinds of Texas snowstorms, massive floods, and probably a CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!! or two.

Brilliant !!!!!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I have a nickname for the GFS that I know isn’t appropriate for the board, but I roll my eyes and say it when I see these 120 hour plus frames on the GFS

[wxman57]

I have a nickname for the GFS that I know isn’t appropriate for the board, but I roll my eyes and say it when I see these 120 hour plus frames on the GFS

Good For ... something?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I have a nickname for the GFS that I know isn’t appropriate for the board, but I roll my eyes and say it when I see these 120 hour plus frames on the GFS

Good For ... something?

No but I like that one too

[utweather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/JzTP9vW/292-FA62-F-F42-B-4-AB7-A445-B30-ABBCEDBD3.jpg [/url]

25F this morning. Globals are too warm in clear nights in winter after a front

Fyi also Bergstrom is in a bit of a valley so their night time temps dont represent Austin that accuately. A couple of miles away temps 10 degrees warmer

[Haris]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/JzTP9vW/292-FA62-F-F42-B-4-AB7-A445-B30-ABBCEDBD3.jpg [/url]

25F this morning. Globals are too warm in clear nights in winter after a front

Fyi also Bergstrom is in a bit of a valley so their night time temps dont represent Austin that accuately. A couple of miles away temps 10 degrees warmer

You're correct. However Mabry is always too warm with the urban heat effect and does not represent our lows for the general area correctly either IMO. Most of the area and suburban cities reached around 29F that morning. Mabry recorded 32F .

[Haris]

Man it is quiet here tonight.



GFS showing 2 interesting (not impressive , i know) oppur. for snow. One in Houston Tuesday!!

[Brent]

GFS is getting drier and drier for that "snow" east of us

Good