Texas Winter 2018-2019

[dhweather]

In today's edition of its only 384 hours out.

[dhweather]

Fro comparison's sake, the "old" GFS - pretty significant differences.

[Brent]

Really nice looking pattern developing for Feb...unfortunately, since it appears most our already beat down with the false starts should we just shut this 2018-19 thread down ? JK. Lots to still be optimistic about moving forward

Wake me when something shows up inside 5 days

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah dhweather, I have no doubt that is going to happen this time for sure

Even with our first chance of snow around the area for Tuesday morning this will definitely go down as the most over hyped winter for the southeast ever if something doesnt change real soon. We've had more threats in the warmer and drier than average winters. Dont care what the unicorns are doing in the solar system and the sun and the ocean and all that crap. You can tilt your head sideways and look at 500mb maps all you want but it won’t change the fact that this winter IS and CONTINUES TO BE an epic bust.

[Yukon Cornelius]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/01/04/o9mlSyYw_o.gif

Aren’t those the ideal phases?

[Ntxw]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/01/04/o9mlSyYw_o.gif

Aren’t those the ideal phases?

They are good phases. 7 is kind of questionable because it tends to lack the cold but good for rains due to the Pacific connection. 8-1-2 usually is colder but that's further down the road and TBD.

[Ntxw]

Yeah dhweather, I have no doubt that is going to happen this time for sure

Even with our first chance of snow around the area for Tuesday morning this will definitely go down as the most over hyped winter for the southeast ever if something doesnt change real soon. We've had more threats in the warmer and drier than average winters. Dont care what the unicorns are doing in the solar system and the sun and the ocean and all that crap. You can tilt your head sideways and look at 500mb maps all you want but it won’t change the fact that this winter IS and CONTINUES TO BE an epic bust.

I mean we can post 5x a day "going to be dry and nothing" for 90 days. That doesn't really do much of anything either. Tell us something we DON'T know. Most of us don't post here to be told something a monkey and some paint can do.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, that graphic you posted earlier of io forcing weakening, can that and will that shift the pattern to a more favorable one for better opportunities of cold and snow than what we have had recently? Im trying to figure this all out lol

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, that graphic you posted earlier of io forcing weakening, can that and will that shift the pattern to a more favorable one for better opportunities of cold and snow than what we have had recently? Im trying to figure this all out lol

Polar blocking is one to look for with cold. The graphic I posted is more ENSO related and of a new wetter than normal period upcoming for Texas and the southwest.

[Haris]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/01/04/o9mlSyYw_o.gif

Yep.

Bring it on! Just got my wx station! Ready

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, that graphic you posted earlier of io forcing weakening, can that and will that shift the pattern to a more favorable one for better opportunities of cold and snow than what we have had recently? Im trying to figure this all out lol

Polar blocking is one to look for with cold. The graphic I posted is more ENSO related and of a new wetter than normal period upcoming for Texas and the southwest.

I know matt hugo and HM said with AAM and SSW that hasnt finalized yet that they expect HLB to set up for last one third of winter. What do you think? They post on Twitter alot

[Haris]

Once again Atlanta shares the same latitude or is closely similar to Dfw and yet again they get another shot at snow....very depressing...something isn't right...we would have normally gotton our fare share by now....

Yep. Atlanta has seen much much more snow than NTX esp the last several years. They never have issues with moisture. The only busts there I have seen were forecasts being too LOW on snow amounts like last Dec.

Most of my family lives there and I've been there a lot. I was able to witness a white christmas there too in 2009. 3 or 4" I recall of snow! Love that place

Atlanta actually is more North than DFW and they are actually 1k feet up. DFW is closer to Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA. Despite this DFW has a much more impressive snow history than the ATL (8.3" is the official record from the 40s) . Atlanta's snow history is more comparable to that of Austin's. However you all are correct that the past few years ATL has fared better than places like OKC and Amarillo even.

You are correct. I would argue that Atlanta and Austin might have had a somewhat similar snow history before 1990 but not anymore. Atlanta has seen a blizzard before and in Austin, our last >1" snow was 2004 (1.6). It's barely snowed here the last 30-35 years unlike Atlanta. I've also come to notice that areas just N of Atlanta see much more than the city sometimes. For example Marietta saw 13" last winter which is only 30min N of Atl while ATL itself saw 3"

[Ntxw]

Yep. Atlanta has seen much much more snow than NTX esp the last several years. They never have issues with moisture. The only busts there I have seen were forecasts being too LOW on snow amounts like last Dec.

Most of my family lives there and I've been there a lot. I was able to witness a white christmas there too in 2009. 3 or 4" I recall of snow! Love that place

Atlanta actually is more North than DFW and they are actually 1k feet up. DFW is closer to Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA. Despite this DFW has a much more impressive snow history than the ATL (8.3" is the official record from the 40s) . Atlanta's snow history is more comparable to that of Austin's. However you all are correct that the past few years ATL has fared better than places like OKC and Amarillo even.

You are correct. I would argue that Atlanta and Austin might have had a somewhat similar snow history before 1990 but not anymore. Atlanta has seen a blizzard before and in Austin, our last >1" snow was 2004 (1.6). It's barely snowed here the last 30-35 years unlike Atlanta. I've also come to notice that areas just N of Atlanta see much more than the city sometimes. For example Marietta saw 13" last winter which is only 30min N of Atl while ATL itself saw 3"

Yeah, Atlanta gets a lot of ticky tack 1-2" every few years. But when it comes to 4+" (WSW verification) it's actually very few. Elevation and latitude wise Atlanta should be closer to Wichita Falls but due to its proximity to two major bodies of water probably plays a role to its lack of snowfall relative to adjacent places historically. The gulf while providing ample moisture, also brings warm air a-loft. The NW burbs and NE burbs benefits a lot, kind of like DFW northern burbs. You can look at some >2" snowfalls at DFW where those burbs to the Red River going 4-8" commonly.

[Ntxw]

I know matt hugo and HM said with AAM and SSW that hasnt finalized yet that they expect HLB to set up for last one third of winter. What do you think? They post on Twitter alot

Best we can hope is for a 2014-2015 push here in February. That's kind of an extreme hail mary. I think a more realistic is an ending like 2003-2004. I'd like to see sustained NAO and -PNA.

[hamburgerman7070]

I know matt hugo and HM said with AAM and SSW that hasnt finalized yet that they expect HLB to set up for last one third of winter. What do you think? They post on Twitter alot

Best we can hope is for a 2014-2015 push here in February. That's kind of an extreme hail mary. I think a more realistic is an ending like 2003-2004. I'd like to see sustained NAO and -PNA.

Why you using that winter as an analog? Was it an ok ending?

[bubba hotep]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/01/04/o9mlSyYw_o.gif

I would offer up a bit of caution when using the GEFS right now, it has an amp bias when moving convection in the WPAC. We have already seen this a couple of times over the last few months.

GEFS



EPS

[Brent]

Yep. Atlanta has seen much much more snow than NTX esp the last several years. They never have issues with moisture. The only busts there I have seen were forecasts being too LOW on snow amounts like last Dec.

Most of my family lives there and I've been there a lot. I was able to witness a white christmas there too in 2009. 3 or 4" I recall of snow! Love that place

Atlanta actually is more North than DFW and they are actually 1k feet up. DFW is closer to Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA. Despite this DFW has a much more impressive snow history than the ATL (8.3" is the official record from the 40s) . Atlanta's snow history is more comparable to that of Austin's. However you all are correct that the past few years ATL has fared better than places like OKC and Amarillo even.

You are correct. I would argue that Atlanta and Austin might have had a somewhat similar snow history before 1990 but not anymore. Atlanta has seen a blizzard before and in Austin, our last >1" snow was 2004 (1.6). It's barely snowed here the last 30-35 years unlike Atlanta. I've also come to notice that areas just N of Atlanta see much more than the city sometimes. For example Marietta saw 13" last winter which is only 30min N of Atl while ATL itself saw 3"

Yeah its weird over there the benchmark blizzard is from 1993 the airport on the southside only measured 4.2" but there was totals over 15 inches in the NW and western suburbs quite a contrast they seem to be near sharp cutoffs a lot

I lived about 2 hours west of Atlanta til 2014 and since 1993 the biggest snow i saw was a mere 4 inches lol which btw i matched on March 4 2015 here

[Ntxw]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/01/04/o9mlSyYw_o.gif

I would offer up a bit of caution when using the GEFS right now, it has an amp bias when moving convection in the WPAC. We have already seen this a couple of times over the last few months.

GEFS

https://i.ibb.co/TgRGLW5/diagram-40days-forecast-GEFS-member-12719.gif

EPS

https://i.ibb.co/0X3cSYs/ECMF-phase-51m-full-12719.gif

I agree, this is why I've been largely avoiding the RMM charts. They have to be filtered out and VP/OLR is your best bet. I am definitely on the camp of a waning MJO signal to be taken over by higher AAM/Nino forcing. EPS dries out the Maritime continent as well. That's largely what I'm looking for. I think the GEFS has the right idea but for the wrong reason.

[Haris]

Atlanta actually is more North than DFW and they are actually 1k feet up. DFW is closer to Montgomery, AL and Macon, GA. Despite this DFW has a much more impressive snow history than the ATL (8.3" is the official record from the 40s) . Atlanta's snow history is more comparable to that of Austin's. However you all are correct that the past few years ATL has fared better than places like OKC and Amarillo even.

You are correct. I would argue that Atlanta and Austin might have had a somewhat similar snow history before 1990 but not anymore. Atlanta has seen a blizzard before and in Austin, our last >1" snow was 2004 (1.6). It's barely snowed here the last 30-35 years unlike Atlanta. I've also come to notice that areas just N of Atlanta see much more than the city sometimes. For example Marietta saw 13" last winter which is only 30min N of Atl while ATL itself saw 3"

Yeah its weird over there the benchmark blizzard is from 1993 the airport on the southside only measured 4.2" but there was totals over 15 inches in the NW and western suburbs quite a contrast they seem to be near sharp cutoffs a lot

I lived about 2 hours west of Atlanta til 2014 and since 1993 the biggest snow i saw was a mere 4 inches lol which btw i matched on March 4 2015 here

Yep. Here are a few graphics to show it.

[Portastorm]

I know matt hugo and HM said with AAM and SSW that hasnt finalized yet that they expect HLB to set up for last one third of winter. What do you think? They post on Twitter alot

Best we can hope is for a 2014-2015 push here in February. That's kind of an extreme hail mary. I think a more realistic is an ending like 2003-2004. I'd like to see sustained NAO and -PNA.

Why you using that winter as an analog? Was it an ok ending?

It was in Austin. We got 1.6” of snow in one event and haven’t seen that much since then.