Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Yukon Cornelius]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/01/04/o9mlSyYw_o.gif

Yep.[url]https://i.ibb.co/ygfVNpJ/Screen-Shot-2019-01-27-at-8-07-55-PM.png [/url]

Bring it on! Just got my wx station! Ready

Nice! Is that an ambient weather? I have a WS-2000 and absolutely love it.

[Haris]

There is now pretty good agreement across the board that the atmosphere will take on a stable Nino-based state and away from the semi-permanent (Nina-esque mixed signal) Indonesia forcing. The SOI has given signal for this with the drop. We're probably going to enter a 30-45 day period of above normal rainfall/qpf as the deep tropical Pacific sets up shop. MJO will take on P7 and likely 8-1-2 thereafter.

https://images2.imgbox.com/01/04/o9mlSyYw_o.gif

Yep.[url]https://i.ibb.co/ygfVNpJ/Screen-Shot-2019-01-27-at-8-07-55-PM.png [/url]

Bring it on! Just got my wx station! Ready

Nice! Is that an ambient weather? I have a WS-2000 and absolutely love it.

Yep

[Cerlin]

Yep.[url]https://i.ibb.co/ygfVNpJ/Screen-Shot-2019-01-27-at-8-07-55-PM.png [/url]

Bring it on! Just got my wx station! Ready

Nice! Is that an ambient weather? I have a WS-2000 and absolutely love it.

Yep

I just got my ambient weather wx station set up yesterday! It’s the lowest end model but she’s still purrrtyyy.

[Brent]

384 hours out on the FV GFS has a massive winter storm of course

now the issues are

A) its the FV GFS
B) Its 384 hours

[wxman57]

The FV3 giveth, and the FV3 taketh away...

[Yukon Cornelius]

A few pics from my wife’s family in Wisconsin. That was all from through the night with more snow all day today.

[Portastorm]

So I see a lot of you are giving up on winter and that’s understandable. Yep, it’s been a disappointment for sure. I think we all believed – even wxman57 – that by now there would be a few nice Texas winter weather events.

I’ve been on this board a long time and have engaged in countless discussions here about winters, events, and non-events. I don’t make predictions often because they’re usually wrong. LOL. But I am going to go out on a limb here and say that after our pattern relaxation/warm up next week, I believe winter will return and we will have a few winter weather events. I see a four-week period from mid-February until the second week of March which could be a lot of fun. This is based on what I am reading from experts much smarter than I, the Euro weeklies, and just casual observation and seeing how winters have behaved in the past.

The skeptics out there – yes, I’m talking about you dhweather! – will read this and say “haaa … he’s talking 384 hours out.” Yes I am. LOL. But, I really believe this and y’all can give me all the grief you want if I’m wrong. But I am not flying the white flag yet. I still believe.

[wxman57]

As I sit here in my cubicle at the back of our operations center, I'm listening to Arctic Thunder talking about the future of winter here. He's saying we may have a better chance of seeing 90 degrees than of seeing any snow. South Texas Storms just arrived and is trying to snap him out of his warm-mongering. It's not working.

[Yukon Cornelius]

So I see a lot of you are giving up on winter and that’s understandable. Yep, it’s been a disappointment for sure. I think we all believed – even wxman57 – that by now there would be a few nice Texas winter weather events.

I’ve been on this board a long time and have engaged in countless discussions here about winters, events, and non-events. I don’t make predictions often because they’re usually wrong. LOL. But I am going to go out on a limb here and say that after our pattern relaxation/warm up next week, I believe winter will return and we will have a few winter weather events. I see a four-week period from mid-February until the second week of March which could be a lot of fun. This is based on what I am reading from experts much smarter than I, the Euro weeklies, and just casual observation and seeing how winters have behaved in the past.

The skeptics out there – yes, I’m talking about you dhweather! – will read this and say “haaa … he’s talking 384 hours out.” Yes I am. LOL. But, I really believe this and y’all can give me all the grief you want if I’m wrong. But I am not flying the white flag yet. I still believe.

I’m right there with you.

[Ntxw]

Pretty astonishing how cold it will get (all time close) in the midwest from a cold Canada, yet it registers like a blip for most of us. Just to show the direction of where the cold goes is important.

[weatherdude1108]

Nice! Is that an ambient weather? I have a WS-2000 and absolutely love it.

Yep

I just got my ambient weather wx station set up yesterday! It’s the lowest end model but she’s still purrrtyyy.

That is awesome looking! Can't wait to see your future local reports.
I'm wondering how the rooftop will affect the sensor, especially during the Summer. Those roofs get HOT.

[rwfromkansas]

Love my Ambient Weather station. If only it could record some snow this year (well, the water in the snow). Lol. I have pretty much decided I am going to assume we get nada, so if there's some snow, it will be a nice surprise. Hopefully a strong moisture pattern will occur for spring storm season to give us something to look forward to this year.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of Spring, I have noticed some mention severe weather seasons. Since 2010 the overall trend has been down on a decadal scale. Severe weather watches and tornado watches were at or near all time lows last year. 2015 was an anomaly due to the strong subtropical jet, but overall it has way underperformed historical averages.

[South Texas Storms]

Speaking of Spring, I have noticed some mention severe weather seasons. Since 2010 the overall trend has been down on a decadal scale. Severe weather watches and tornado watches were at or near all time lows last year. 2015 was an anomaly due to the strong subtropical jet, but overall it has way underperformed historical averages.

Yes indeed. It does look like we will have a wetter and cooler than normal Spring this year. How warm we are through the rest of winter will likely play a role on how active a severe season we have this spring.

[orangeblood]

This mornings MJO forecasts are a complete mess....huge differences among all 3 models members on the direction of the MJO past day 3-4 IMO, anyone who tells you they have any clue where Feb is going is making a wild guess at this point! But if you want an exciting finish to winter, a swing over to 8-1-2 would help tremendously

[gpsnowman]

I have not given up on the rest of winter but my expectations have been reduced to near zero so that a night below freezing from here on out will be considered a win. I think it was the end of winter in 2014 or 2015 when we had three winter events in the span of 10 days with strong cold. Lots can change from late January till the end. Not all is lost!!!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I have not given up on the rest of winter but my expectations have been reduced to near zero so that a night below freezing from here on out will be considered a win. I think it was the end of winter in 2014 or 2015 when we had three winter events in the span of 10 days with strong cold. Lots can change from late January till the end. Not all is lost!!!!

Both years had significant late season events. 2015 was the string of events. 2014 was crazy though with a huge cold blast with winter precip in early March.

[gpsnowman]

I have not given up on the rest of winter but my expectations have been reduced to near zero so that a night below freezing from here on out will be considered a win. I think it was the end of winter in 2014 or 2015 when we had three winter events in the span of 10 days with strong cold. Lots can change from late January till the end. Not all is lost!!!!

Both years had significant late season events. 2015 was the string of events. 2014 was crazy though with a huge cold blast with winter precip in early March.

That is right. Got my years mixed up. I remember the early March event was seriously cold. I had to pick up my stepson from school and remember the temp was 19 degrees at around 4 in the afternoon....in March!! Just goes to show that the weather gods will surprise us when we least expect it. Ahhhhh the life of a weather watcher never gets old. Well, except when a high pressure dome sits on top of Texas for two months in the summer.

[dhweather]

The skeptics out there – yes, I’m talking about you dhweather! – will read this and say “haaa … he’s talking 384 hours out.” Yes I am. LOL. But, I really believe this and y’all can give me all the grief you want if I’m wrong. But I am not flying the white flag yet. I still believe.

Eventually the 384 hours out has got to be right???

[Lagreeneyes03]

So I see a lot of you are giving up on winter and that’s understandable. Yep, it’s been a disappointment for sure. I think we all believed – even wxman57 – that by now there would be a few nice Texas winter weather events.

I’ve been on this board a long time and have engaged in countless discussions here about winters, events, and non-events. I don’t make predictions often because they’re usually wrong. LOL. But I am going to go out on a limb here and say that after our pattern relaxation/warm up next week, I believe winter will return and we will have a few winter weather events. I see a four-week period from mid-February until the second week of March which could be a lot of fun. This is based on what I am reading from experts much smarter than I, the Euro weeklies, and just casual observation and seeing how winters have behaved in the past.

The skeptics out there – yes, I’m talking about you dhweather! – will read this and say “haaa … he’s talking 384 hours out.” Yes I am. LOL. But, I really believe this and y’all can give me all the grief you want if I’m wrong. But I am not flying the white flag yet. I still believe.

Let's not jump the gun here and ruin Spring Break. We want bluebonnets, not blizzards.