Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

So I see a lot of you are giving up on winter and that’s understandable. Yep, it’s been a disappointment for sure. I think we all believed – even wxman57 – that by now there would be a few nice Texas winter weather events.

I’ve been on this board a long time and have engaged in countless discussions here about winters, events, and non-events. I don’t make predictions often because they’re usually wrong. LOL. But I am going to go out on a limb here and say that after our pattern relaxation/warm up next week, I believe winter will return and we will have a few winter weather events. I see a four-week period from mid-February until the second week of March which could be a lot of fun. This is based on what I am reading from experts much smarter than I, the Euro weeklies, and just casual observation and seeing how winters have behaved in the past.

The skeptics out there – yes, I’m talking about you dhweather! – will read this and say “haaa … he’s talking 384 hours out.” Yes I am. LOL. But, I really believe this and y’all can give me all the grief you want if I’m wrong. But I am not flying the white flag yet. I still believe.

Let's not jump the gun here and ruin Spring Break. We want bluebonnets, not blizzards.

I mean I want a blizzard for spring break...sounds like my kind of fun...

[Cpv17]

So I see a lot of you are giving up on winter and that’s understandable. Yep, it’s been a disappointment for sure. I think we all believed – even wxman57 – that by now there would be a few nice Texas winter weather events.

I’ve been on this board a long time and have engaged in countless discussions here about winters, events, and non-events. I don’t make predictions often because they’re usually wrong. LOL. But I am going to go out on a limb here and say that after our pattern relaxation/warm up next week, I believe winter will return and we will have a few winter weather events. I see a four-week period from mid-February until the second week of March which could be a lot of fun. This is based on what I am reading from experts much smarter than I, the Euro weeklies, and just casual observation and seeing how winters have behaved in the past.

The skeptics out there – yes, I’m talking about you dhweather! – will read this and say “haaa … he’s talking 384 hours out.” Yes I am. LOL. But, I really believe this and y’all can give me all the grief you want if I’m wrong. But I am not flying the white flag yet. I still believe.

Let's not jump the gun here and ruin Spring Break. We want bluebonnets, not blizzards.

I mean I want a blizzard for spring break...sounds like my kind of fun...

SB is too early in Texas imo. Needs to be pushed back a couple weeks. I’ve always thought that. Hard to enjoy it during the second week of March when it’s still pretty chilly out.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Spring Break Cancel

[Texas Snowman]

The skeptics out there – yes, I’m talking about you dhweather! – will read this and say “haaa … he’s talking 384 hours out.” Yes I am. LOL. But, I really believe this and y’all can give me all the grief you want if I’m wrong. But I am not flying the white flag yet. I still believe.

Eventually the 384 hours out has got to be right???

Well, there WAS a Cat 5 in the Gulf a few months ago. Maybe even a Cat 5 at landfall. So with February and March still to come, who knows?

[Haris]

Today’s 12z model suite was ugly

[TheProfessor]

Man, we get NW flow finally and the clipper misses us to the north Need that center of cold air to move down the plains so I can try to cash in on a synoptic storm if these clipper systems aren't going to hit me.

[TheProfessor]

I'm under my first ever windchill warning(perhaps I was under one without knowing or remembering in Texas, but even so it wouldn't have compared to what I'm about to face). I definitely would have been fine not having to deal with this xD.

[orangeblood]

Today’s 12z model suite was ugly

I guess ugly or beauty is all in the eyes of the beholder...thought today's runs look really good as we head into Feb, first few days look warm but after that, system after system ejects out of the SW with plenty of cold air to tap into. Really nice looking overrunning pattern setting up!!

[wxman57]

Cheer up, D-FW folks! The GFS is suggesting that there may be another light freeze up there around Feb. 10-12. Both South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder are very sad. They can't find any cold air in our future.

[Tireman4]

Cheer up, D-FW folks! The GFS is suggesting that there may be another light freeze up there around Feb. 10-12. Both South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder are very sad. They can't find any cold air in our future.

Models change young man!!

[orangeblood]

Cheer up, D-FW folks! The GFS is suggesting that there may be another light freeze up there around Feb. 10-12. Both South Texas Storms and Arctic Thunder are very sad. They can't find any cold air in our future.

Well they're obviously not looking in your "Source Region"...Western Canada is loading up with very cold air in less than a week! And with a Eastern Pacific Ridge popping, very curious as to why you don't practice what you constantly preach on this forum - which is 'need source region to get cold first before getting too excited around here' ?? One thing is for sure, there's no winning with the Heat Miser!!!

[Arctic Thunder]

Mild first week of Feb will likely be followed by another sharp drop in temperatures for the second week of the month. Several key points to discuss:

[*]So far this winter I don't recall any 1050+ MB highs cross south from Canada into the Lower 48

[*]Most really cold air over the past 2 weeks has been centered over Central and Eastern Canada rather than Western Canada...As a result most of the really cold air has affected areas east of the Mississippi and mainly the Midwest and NE and points north

Latest teleconnection signals favor a negative PNA with a continued negative AO and NAO providing plenty of blocking and cold air spillage to the south well into Feb. With the more persistent negative PNA we'll likely see most of the colder than normal air pivot west into W Canada increasing the odds for some sig cold racing south across the Rockies and Plains by the 2nd week of Feb. Also the EPO is showing signs of another negative dip during this time frame which will aid in the colder air surges.

[South Texas Storms]

Mild first week of Feb will likely be followed by another sharp drop in temperatures for the second week of the month. Several key points to discuss:

[*]So far this winter I don't recall any 1050+ MB highs cross south from Canada into the Lower 48

[*]Most really cold air over the past 2 weeks has been centered over Central and Eastern Canada rather than Western Canada...As a result most of the really cold air has affected areas east of the Mississippi and mainly the Midwest and NE and points north

Latest teleconnection signals favor a negative PNA with a continued negative AO and NAO providing plenty of blocking and cold air spillage to the south well into Feb. With the more persistent negative PNA we'll likely see most of the colder than normal air pivot west into W Canada increasing the odds for some sig cold racing south across the Rockies and Plains by the 2nd week of Feb. Also the EPO is showing signs of another negative dip during this time frame which will aid in the colder air surges.

Welcome aboard Arctic Thunder! So happy to finally have you on the board. We could use more cold-mongering around here. Especially as the Heat-Misers powers get stronger by the day it seems this year...

[Snowman67]

Mild first week of Feb will likely be followed by another sharp drop in temperatures for the second week of the month. Several key points to discuss:

[*]So far this winter I don't recall any 1050+ MB highs cross south from Canada into the Lower 48

[*]Most really cold air over the past 2 weeks has been centered over Central and Eastern Canada rather than Western Canada...As a result most of the really cold air has affected areas east of the Mississippi and mainly the Midwest and NE and points north

Latest teleconnection signals favor a negative PNA with a continued negative AO and NAO providing plenty of blocking and cold air spillage to the south well into Feb. With the more persistent negative PNA we'll likely see most of the colder than normal air pivot west into W Canada increasing the odds for some sig cold racing south across the Rockies and Plains by the 2nd week of Feb. Also the EPO is showing signs of another negative dip during this time frame which will aid in the colder air surges.

Welcome aboard Arctic Thunder! Thanks for giving us winter weather lovers a glimpse of hope for Feb.

[Snowman67]

Mild first week of Feb will likely be followed by another sharp drop in temperatures for the second week of the month. Several key points to discuss:

[*]So far this winter I don't recall any 1050+ MB highs cross south from Canada into the Lower 48

[*]Most really cold air over the past 2 weeks has been centered over Central and Eastern Canada rather than Western Canada...As a result most of the really cold air has affected areas east of the Mississippi and mainly the Midwest and NE and points north

Latest teleconnection signals favor a negative PNA with a continued negative AO and NAO providing plenty of blocking and cold air spillage to the south well into Feb. With the more persistent negative PNA we'll likely see most of the colder than normal air pivot west into W Canada increasing the odds for some sig cold racing south across the Rockies and Plains by the 2nd week of Feb. Also the EPO is showing signs of another negative dip during this time frame which will aid in the colder air surges.

Welcome aboard Arctic Thunder! So happy to finally have you on the board. We could use more cold-mongering around here. Especially as the Heat-Misers powers get stronger by the day it seems this year...

You guys need to tag team on the Heat Miser!

[wxman57]

Mild first week of Feb will likely be followed by another sharp drop in temperatures for the second week of the month. Several key points to discuss:

[*]So far this winter I don't recall any 1050+ MB highs cross south from Canada into the Lower 48

[*]Most really cold air over the past 2 weeks has been centered over Central and Eastern Canada rather than Western Canada...As a result most of the really cold air has affected areas east of the Mississippi and mainly the Midwest and NE and points north

Latest teleconnection signals favor a negative PNA with a continued negative AO and NAO providing plenty of blocking and cold air spillage to the south well into Feb. With the more persistent negative PNA we'll likely see most of the colder than normal air pivot west into W Canada increasing the odds for some sig cold racing south across the Rockies and Plains by the 2nd week of Feb. Also the EPO is showing signs of another negative dip during this time frame which will aid in the colder air surges.

Welcome aboard Arctic Thunder! So happy to finally have you on the board. We could use more cold-mongering around here. Especially as the Heat-Misers powers get stronger by the day it seems this year...

You guys need to tag team on the Heat Miser!

I am more powerful than both of them combined! My wall will hold!

[Texas Snow]

Someone should just steal his bike and hold it for ransom until we get a significant winter storm this year.

[Ralph's Weather]

Cold front in our area now. Some models do give Deep East Texas (Lufkin/Jasper area) some snow tonight.

[sphelps8681]

I have snow possible for my area in the morning around 4:00am. Do I want to wake up to see it or not. Or will it be an bust and then I can't go back to sleep.

[Texas Snowman]

Welcome aboard Arctic Thunder! So happy to finally have you on the board. We could use more cold-mongering around here. Especially as the Heat-Misers powers get stronger by the day it seems this year...

You guys need to tag team on the Heat Miser!

I am more powerful than both of them combined! My wall will hold!

You have no power, you have no wall. Your post could be deleted by any other moderator with the click of a button. So you might hold off on that “evil villain” second career.