Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TexasF6]

I watched Joe B say that he's heard that yahoo nonsense about winter cancel? He doesn't buy it. He said the warmth will be followed the Cold Hammer of Winter's Wrath upon 57's wall of heatley miserness, deep into MARCH! So winter is not done. Mind you, I added some additional words to all that for fun. #ChampTheChargerWillRide!!!

[EnnisTx]

You guys need to tag team on the Heat Miser!

I am more powerful than both of them combined! My wall will hold!

You have no power, you have no wall. Your post could be deleted by any other moderator with the click of a button. So you might hold off on that “evil villain” second career.

I regret ever getting this wall thing started! It just gave him one more thing to taunt us with......

[Ntxw]

So the eastern trough didn't work. Now we will transition to a western trough. Cold from eastern Canada to Western Canada. At the very least, western trough bodes better for rainfall at least.

The threats of cold will more likely be reserved for the usual "dagger" down the plains. Lets see if we can make it work this time. There will be a few days of warmth (clouds and stj may keep it in check) as the ridge-trough pattern reshuffles.



The PNA is now falling and forecasted across the board to solidly go negative. We need it to work and pull a Feb 2015.

[TheProfessor]

So the eastern trough didn't work. Now we will transition to a western trough. Cold from eastern Canada to Western Canada. At the very least, western trough bodes better for rainfall at least.

The threats of cold will more likely be reserved for the usual "dagger" down the plains. Lets see if we can make it work this time. There will be a few days of warmth (clouds and stj may keep it in check) as the ridge-trough pattern reshuffles.

https://images2.imgbox.com/bb/88/KW0v6SZn_o.gif

The PNA is now forecasted across the board to solidly go negative. We need it to work and pull a Feb 2015.

Can't get snow storms when it's -10 outside. I'm going to enjoy this warm up and hopefully have an apps runner follow it.

[Ntxw]

The AO has also come down significantly from early winter. We also need it to help these storms kicking out of the southwest to become big bowling balls or something of the sort. If the -PNA and -AO doesn't work along with Nino forcing then it will likely be lights out for winter. We will know very soon what will happen by this coming weekend or around that period with tropical forcing. If we start seeing subsidence over Indonesia then the usual Feb-Nino climo will increase in odds.



Note: ESRL and other NOAA sites are slowly coming online so should be able to post more re-analysis of upper air patterns going forward

[Ntxw]

Third post with ENSO update since TAO/Triton buoys are also back online. New warm pool developing below the IDL. This is not your usual ending of El Nino, more like birth years of El Nino. It is definitely not the typical La Nina growth of sub-surface thermocline slope where it is 180 and cold around this time. It doesn't guaranty +ENSO for the rest of 2019, however it just about quashes the chances for any developing La Nina early. So a cool/wet Spring is looking more possible, South Texas Storms posted about earlier.

[harp]

At the risk of sounding ignorant, can you interpret what this means? Thanks.

[Ntxw]

At the risk of sounding ignorant, can you interpret what this means? Thanks.

The next 2-3 months, likely till May will resemble El Nino weather patterns for the first half of the year. The milder and dry Springs of the past 2 (Ninas) are less likely.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I watched Joe B say that he's heard that yahoo nonsense about winter cancel? He doesn't buy it. He said the warmth will be followed the Cold Hammer of Winter's Wrath upon 57's wall of heatley miserness, deep into MARCH! So winter is not done. Mind you, I added some additional words to all that for fun. #ChampTheChargerWillRide!!!

Ok I have to give my 2 cents on this, the negative with the positive so to speak. I have a few thoughts on ole JB and hate all the hype and getting people worked up over his forecasts when it’s not warranted. His winter outlook is a total bust and about once a week since January, he has been saying the next 45 days are going to be the coldest ever!! Now he’s backed up to the last 2 weeks in Feb/ first 2 weeks in March! About 2-3 weeks ago, he said the coldest 45 day period that we have ever seen in the East was coming!? Now it’s the middle of March. His winter outlook of -4/-5 below avg for the whole winter, can’t verify! He just keeps hyping, even though he’s already wrong. Sorry for the rant just had to put it out there.

[gboudx]

Someone should just steal his bike and hold it for ransom until we get a significant winter storm this year.

Most likely he has more than 1 bike. Just kidnap him and tell his wife you're holding him for ransom until he stops about the wall. However, there's a good chance she'll say, "keep him".

[Quixotic]

Third post with ENSO update since TAO/Triton buoys are also back online. New warm pool developing below the IDL. This is not your usual ending of El Nino, more like birth years of El Nino. It is definitely not the typical La Nina growth of sub-surface thermocline slope where it is 180 and cold around this time. It doesn't guaranty +ENSO for the rest of 2019, however it just about quashes the chances for any developing La Nina early. So a cool/wet Spring is looking more possible, South Texas Storms posted about earlier.

https://images2.imgbox.com/cb/be/5TuNpaHw_o.jpg

Final warming?

[Ntxw]

Third post with ENSO update since TAO/Triton buoys are also back online. New warm pool developing below the IDL. This is not your usual ending of El Nino, more like birth years of El Nino. It is definitely not the typical La Nina growth of sub-surface thermocline slope where it is 180 and cold around this time. It doesn't guaranty +ENSO for the rest of 2019, however it just about quashes the chances for any developing La Nina early. So a cool/wet Spring is looking more possible, South Texas Storms posted about earlier.

https://images2.imgbox.com/cb/be/5TuNpaHw_o.jpg

Final warming?

Final warmings occur well east of the dateline, in the eastern Pacific. Central and Western Pacific doesn't warm this late unless extenuation of +enso like 1987, 2004, and 2015... especially if there is a transition to La Nina.

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, do you like the pattern moving forward with the trough further west? To me, it looks like the ridge is further off the west coast as well on the future runs. I know you have been intrigued about the pacific on whats going on there.

[orangeblood]

Probably the coldest GEFS run I’ve even seen for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole!!! Extraordinary if it even comes close to verifying and in turn, expect the unexpected moving forward - there is a massive amount of cold air sloshing around the globe!!

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, do you like the pattern moving forward with the trough further west? To me, it looks like the ridge is further off the west coast as well on the future runs. I know you have been intrigued about the pacific on whats going on there.

I guess I can say I like it. I mean, one way didn't work why not try another? It doesn't snow in DFW in January anymore, or much ever really except for a few exceptions. Too much suppression perhaps.

I will stay cautiously optimistic hoping for +ENSO Feb to save the day.

[HockeyTx82]

Note: ESRL and other NOAA sites are slowly coming online so should be able to post more re-analysis of upper air patterns going forward

So are these sites run on people's desktops under their desks and as they come back to work get turned on? I don't understand why they would have powered off servers during a shutdown. If they are patched up and running why turn them off? NOAA sites stayed up.

Just my IT thought......... it's what I do for a living.

[bubba hotep]

Note: ESRL and other NOAA sites are slowly coming online so should be able to post more re-analysis of upper air patterns going forward

So are these sites run on people's desktops under their desks and as they come back to work get turned on? I don't understand why they would have powered off servers during a shutdown. If they are patched up and running why turn them off? NOAA sites stayed up.

Just my IT thought......... it's what I do for a living.

The shutting down of so many NOAA sites seemed heavy handed. Other agencies put up notes on websites indicating that after a certain date that data would no longer be updating until the shutdown was over.

[Brent]

Probably the coldest GEFS run I’ve even seen for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole!!! Extraordinary if it even comes close to verifying and in turn, expect the unexpected moving forward - there is a massive amount of cold air sloshing around the globe!!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019012818/gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_63.png

sure it will trend warmer as we get closer

[spencer817]

Also of note, looks like portions of NTX/S OK may see some SVR action Feb 3rd-5th, should be interesting times ahead.

[Brent]

Also of note, looks like portions of NTX/S OK may see some SVR action Feb 3rd-5th, should be interesting times ahead.

well if its not gonna snow sure why not