Texas Winter 2018-2019

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4681 Postby orangeblood » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:10 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
"end of February and March?" Huh?!

Those of us who have not given up are looking at February 10 and beyond. But you go ahead and keep looking at the end of February. Good luck with that. :wink:


Really starting to like what I'm seeing even before then...Feb 8-10 time frame - models are getting "Noisy" again for that time period. Lots of HP and cold air draped across the Conus 2nd week in Feb, all we need is a S/W to kick out in the STJ


Yep 12z Euro Ensemble and control runs indicating a winter storm threat across TX late next week into next weekend. The extended looks cold and unsettled as well.


Yeah, mean trough position is located in a much better position (for cold and precip) this time around....much more of a neutral to slightly negative PNA
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4682 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:20 pm

:uarrow: Nah, winter is over. Haven’t y’all heard? 8-)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4683 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:29 pm

Texas Snowman wrote::uarrow: Nah, winter is over. Haven’t y’all heard? 8-)
Winter is not over!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4684 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:50 pm

Arctic Thunder and I agree that the upcoming pattern has much more wintry fun potential than any we've seen so far this winter. Our main source area (western Canada) looks to finally get cold, with a -PNA over the next few weeks. We like the latest trends!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4685 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:54 pm

Well, after several tries, I still can't get TinyPic to load my uploads from the CPC for the maps for some reason(?). But none-the-less, it looks promising the rain and temps department if you're a cold-mongerer (like me) in the 8-14 and 3-4 week periods.

Our EWX office hints at the next shot of cold air just outside the range of their forecast.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 292052
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
252 PM CST Tue Jan 29 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Skies remain mostly clear across the region with northeasterly winds
continuing at the surface behind the cold front which moved through
yesterday. Temperatures are currently in the middle 40s to lower 50s
across the CWA. Should see an increase in mid and upper level clouds
continuing this afternoon through the overnight period. Very dry air
at the surface with dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s should allow
lows to reach freezing for the Hill Country, but the increasing cloud
cover should limit freezing conditions for much of the area outside
of the Hill Country and other low-lying areas of the I35 corridor.

Southerly flow is expected to return tomorrow and we should see high
temperatures moderate to the middle 50s for much of the area. By
tomorrow night, southerly flow will continue and lows will be in the
40s. Can`t rule out some patchy fog, but at this time visibilities
don`t look to be too low.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
For much of the long-term forecast, our region will be under the
influence of a sub-tropical jet across the southern CONUS. There will
be several shortwaves embedded in this regime Thursday through
Tuesday which will provide some low chances of showers for primarily
the eastern half of the area.
Temperatures are expected to moderate
through the forecast period with highs Thursday in the lower 60s
increasing to the middle 70s by Monday.
Lows will increase from the
50s on Friday to the 60s by the end of the period. The next shot of
cold air looks to arrive just beyond the current forecast period as
the next longwave trough moves into the Plains.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4686 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:04 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4687 Postby Brent » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:09 pm

A real winter storm or bust no more flizzards or almosts
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4688 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:45 pm

Wow OSU actually canceled classes. Very rare.
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Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4689 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 30, 2019 12:21 am

The CMC has some frozen precip next Thursday in Central TX south of DFW

FV GFS looks close to a full blown winter storm it appears even up in DFW :lol:

FV GFS verbatim mid 70s Monday afternoon to mid 20s Thursday afternoon for DFW :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4690 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 30, 2019 1:27 am

:roflmao: winter may be uncancelled... til next run

Image

the Euro has some snow overspreading at the very end of the run further out than the FV GFS
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4691 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:09 am

24 again here this morning with some time yet to cool. 23 is the coldest of the season though we have reached at least 24 5 or so times.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4692 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 30, 2019 5:57 am

Brent wrote::roflmao: winter may be uncancelled... til next run

https://i.ibb.co/fYxdrt6/fv3p-asnow-us-39.png

the Euro has some snow overspreading at the very end of the run further out than the FV GFS

One thing I have noticed with the long range snow maps that nail DFW is the large snow hole near Kansas, Nebraska, and eastern Colorado. It would be nice if that could fill in at some point. Anyway, the snow will probably disappear in today's runs.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4693 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:52 am

I'm starting to get concerned that my wall may fail next week...
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4694 Postby gpsnowman » Wed Jan 30, 2019 6:56 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm starting to get concerned that my wall may fail next week...

The Arctic Thunder influence in that office must be strong. The wall will crumble!!!! :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4695 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:12 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4696 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:18 am

January, temperature wise, looks like it will finish at about normal for DFW airport. Not a lot of extremes one way or the other.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4697 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:31 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm starting to get concerned that my wall may fail next week...


We will not be denied the right to the cold that is given to us. #breachthewall

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4698 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:36 am



Yep, really like the look of this pattern! all models have the cold, now can we get the moisture? ...I believe it's better if we can keep the streams separated where S/Ws eject out and attack the Cold HPs (instead of the bowling ball pattern/pealed off look earlier this season or phased look of the past several weeks)
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4699 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:37 am

The leading edge of the Arctic air shows up well on the current surface analysis:

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4700 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 30, 2019 8:52 am

I must say, that FV3-GFS is surely a cold-mongering model. Here's a comparison of the 00Z FV3-GFS and current GFS for next Friday morning.

Image
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