Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyNfOS0X4AA-HNR.jpg

Chicago's high today was colder than our all-time low from the 1800's...

[Texas Snowman]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyNfOS0X4AA-HNR.jpg

Chicago's high today was colder than our all-time low from the 1800's...

They’re 967 miles northeast of us. Next to a massive lake that often freezes.

[Brent]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyNfOS0X4AA-HNR.jpg

Chicago's high today was colder than our all-time low from the 1800's...

They’re 967 miles northeast of us. Next to a massive lake that often freezes.

yeah yeah I get that but its just insane to see the contrast

[Yukon Cornelius]

I don’t know about the rest of the state, but January up here ended up being colder than average.

[harp]

Can someone explain to me why the GFS depicts a 1048 mlb high in Iowa, yet the freezing temps don't make it down to the Gulf coast?

[Brent]

Can someone explain to me why the GFS depicts a 1048 mlb high in Iowa, yet the freezing temps don't make it down to the Gulf coast?

GFS being too warm? Wouldnt be the first time

[Cpv17]

Can someone explain to me why the GFS depicts a 1048 mlb high in Iowa, yet the freezing temps don't make it down to the Gulf coast?

12z Euro today as well.

[Brent]

Euro looking more interesting for next Thursday(when the FV has shown a major winter storm), shows a brief changeover in DFW as the precip ends it appears. No real accumulation but that does appear to be a trend towards a bigger storm at least for now

[Haris]

12z was much better for us in CTX lol

My weather station is already dusty! I need liquid gold at the least!

[Brent]

12z was much better for us in CTX lol

My weather station is already dusty! I need liquid gold at the least!

yeah the 2nd wave isn't there on the 0z, but the Thursday storm is way more amped up now(of course its mostly rain)

I'm sure we'll have a bunch of different solutions through next week

[bubba hotep]

Euro looking more interesting for next Thursday(when the FV has shown a major winter storm), shows a brief changeover in DFW as the precip ends it appears. No real accumulation but that does appear to be a trend towards a bigger storm at least for now

However, EPS was a step backwards. The GFS still shows nothing but the FV3 and Canadian are on our side lol

[orangeblood]

Euro looking more interesting for next Thursday(when the FV has shown a major winter storm), shows a brief changeover in DFW as the precip ends it appears. No real accumulation but that does appear to be a trend towards a bigger storm at least for now

However, EPS was a step backwards. The GFS still shows nothing but the FV3 and Canadian are on our side lol

GEFS is the leader in the clubhouse!!! It is forecasting the most active wintry weather 15 day period we've had since 2015! Euro and FV3 are very similar at 5h, should take a few days to work out the surface characteristics but the best news from overnight is the GEFS is going wild for the next couple of weeks and could continue beyond that.....although, would like to see the EPS trend back towards this over the next few runs before getting too bullish!



To illustrate further how significant of a Ensemble Run this was...every ensemble member except one is forecasting greater than a trace of snow over the next couple of weeks and majority in less than 9 days

[wxman57]

Euro ensembles are a good bit less bullish on snow in the D-FW area than the GFS ensembles.

[wxman57]

New GFS is still the ice champion for Texas, with an ice storm in every run over the past month or more:

[rwfromkansas]

Learned my lesson. Will not get excited until Euro goes in, but some good things today.

[Shoshana]

Learned my lesson. Will not get excited until Euro goes in, but some good things today.

Don’t get excited till stuff falls out of the sky.....

[orangeblood]

Learned my lesson. Will not get excited until Euro goes in, but some good things today.

Don’t get excited till stuff falls out of the sky.....

This board would probably cease to exist if that was the mentality...

[Tejas89]

Local mets aren't buying into anything late next week.

In other news, while we like to say "if you don't like the weather in Texas, just wait"... we're put to shame by some other parts of the country.

Des Moines, for instance, saw minus 20 Wednesday a.m. The high on Sunday could tease 60 with rain. (60 would tie a record high, btw) Then arctic returns next week. lol.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 311140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
540 AM CST Thu Jan 31 2019

.AVIATION...
Lowering ceilings/visibilities and increasing -RA/-SHRA coverage can
be expected today and tonight. MVFR levels are anticipated, and IFR
levels are possible. Think best TSRA potential will be off the coast.
42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Thu Jan 31 2019/

DISCUSSION...

After a pleasant, albeit cold, start to the week, we`ll begin a
transition where both descriptors are likely to flip. Temperatures
are expected to become warmer - with low temperature values near
seasonal highs - but also more dreary, with frequent chances of
rain, clouds, and sea fog. This may well continue deep into next
week, until a cold front comes to clear rain chances out and cool
things down on Wednesday or Thursday.

NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A solid ceiling of 4-6k feet has covered Southeast Texas, and
an overcast sky should be expected to continue through the day.
Despite that, look for a warmer day tomorrow, due in large part to
the fact that temperatures across the area are already near their
daily max from yesterday, and are probably only on their way up as
moderate to strong onshore flow sets up over the Gulf and warm
advection taking place at 850 mb. If there were sun, we could
perhaps make more of a run at warmer temperatures, but we should
look to build to around 60 degrees across the area.

While the radar is relatively empty until you get down to
Brownsville, there is a weak surface low developing down there,
and it should slowly scrape up the lower Texas coast, and rain
showers should accordingly drift up our way as well. As the low
moves up, we should start to see better convergence along the
coast as rain becomes more likely deeper into the day. Further
inland, things are perhaps a little less clear. A shortwave trough
does look to pass across the region today, and the TTU WRF, HRRR
and NAM hint at development of some light showers over much of the
area, while the RAP stays drier. The HREF is also pretty dry,
keeping rain largely confined to the Gulf and much of the
immediate coastal area. Tend to suspect the TTU WRF and HRRR may
be overconvective a bit, so I`ll keep the highest PoPs right on
the coast, but will not go HREF/RAP dry, either.

SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A bit of uncertain certainty tonight in the behavior of this
coastal low - some guidance brings the low itself out over the
Gulf, while other guidance brings the original low slowly inland
and fills it in, while an MCS sets up over the Gulf and spawns a
mesolow. In the end, it may not make much of a difference, as the
effective result is pretty similar. Rain showers will be most
likely over the water, a bit less so on the coast, and less of a
chance inland, and the low pressure (however it gets there) over
the Gulf moves off to the east, decreasing rain chances by
morning.

Look for another shortwave to roll through Friday, and only a
brief moment of upper ridging Friday night until a more
substantial upper trough rolls through Texas on Saturday. It is
probably little surprise, then, that rain chances never really
leave us through the first half of the weekend. The sustained,
slow warming trend also continues through this period. Again,
clouds and rain will hold things back some, but persistent onshore
flow and low level warm advection should keep on nudging temps up.

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

If we have a stretch most likely to dry out...and maybe see a bit
of a break in the cloud cover, it will be Sunday and Monday. An
upper trough will drop off the Rockies and eject northeastward to
the Great Lakes, bringing a deepening surface low along with it.
That low will drop a front down into Texas, but a lingering
midlevel ridge over the Gulf looks to be just strong enough to
hold that front off and wash it out short of our area. We appear
to be on a bit of a razor`s edge with this, but there`s pretty
strong consensus in the guidance that this weak ridging will hold,
so outside of a little bit of a veering in winds up around College
Station...have no impact in our area.

However, by midweek, that ridge`s axis should move off to the
eastern edge of the Gulf, which will provide just enough of a
window for the next front to at least push into the region on
Wednesday. And here is where the guidance begins to diverge
wildly. The GFS slams things on through with a quick frontal
passage on Wednesday and a strong progressive motion of the upper
trough. The Euro, on the other hand, holds the pattern a bit more
stagnant, and doesn`t bring through the upper trough/front combo
until Thursday. This...plays right into these models`
stereotypical bias at medium/long range. Thanks, models, very
helpful of you. FWIW, the Canadian appears to be even slower than
the Euro. For now, given little compelling evidence to sell out
for either a quicker or slower FROPA, will take the forecast of
least regret at this point with a compromise front moving through
Wednesday night. This may well end up working out...at the very
least, this buys us some time to gain clarity on the situation
before shifting the forecast to the end that appears most likely.

MARINE...

Moderate east winds (caution speeds most of the time) and
elevated seas (caution/advisory levels) will persist through
the end of the week. Areas of rain with maybe some embedded
showers or thunderstorms are expected today and tonight.
Lighter southeast to south winds will return to the area
over the weekend. Look for a slight increase in south winds
during the first half of next week. The area`s next cold front
is not expected to push off the coast until Wed/Thu of next week.

A warmer airmass will begin moving over the colder shelf waters
Friday and into next week setting the stage for some sea fog
development. This could end up being a somewhat prolonged fog
event considering the next cold front isn`t expected to push
off the coast until Wed/Thur of next week. There`s still a lot
of details to be worked out in the meantime (timing, sct showers
that could temporarily mix things out, etc). 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 53 67 56 68 / 40 30 20 30 40
Houston (IAH) 60 54 67 57 68 / 40 40 20 30 40
Galveston (GLS) 59 57 62 58 63 / 70 60 30 30 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through this afternoon for
the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from
High Island to Freeport TX out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX
from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

[Ralph's Weather]

Learned my lesson. Will not get excited until Euro goes in, but some good things today.

Even that is questionable, a couple weeks ago every Euro op and ens run showed me getting accumulating snow and all I had was light flurries. The pattern is shifting to one that is more typical of Texas winter storms so that is all we can go on right now. Specifics to be determined next week.