Texas Winter 2018-2019

[SnowintheFalls]

I think this is just a crappy run for the Euro. Not gonna put any stock in one run.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to put much stock in any run this winter!

[Cpv17]

I would suggest monitoring the source region in western Canada for clues. Current temps there are not very cold at all. Watch to see if that changes over the next 4-5 days.

Doesn't appear to be biggest concern at this point (cold appears to be coming), don't you think it's more moisture return/suppression question than anything!!

Western Canada will be plenty cold. Not concerned about that. My concern is the trajectory of the cold.

[Brent]

I would suggest monitoring the source region in western Canada for clues. Current temps there are not very cold at all. Watch to see if that changes over the next 4-5 days.

Doesn't appear to be biggest concern at this point (cold appears to be coming), don't you think it's more moisture return/suppression question than anything!!

yeah but does the cold stay NE again is my issue, we've not had any real cold here all winter

[weatherdude1108]

A little blurb from EWX mentioning potential Winter mischief late next week(?), but model support isn't there yet.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 312104
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
304 PM CST Thu Jan 31 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Elevated convection has developed this afternoon south of I-10 and
east of I-37, across the southeast CWA, in response to mid level
disturbance across the Coastal Bend moving north. The disturbance
will phase together with weaker disturbance moving east through the
CWA this afternoon and tonight. Steeper mid level lapse rates across
the southeast CWA are producing MUCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg
and has resulted in isolated thunderstorm. This should continue
through remainder of the afternoon, before better mid level forcing
and steeper lapse rates move east this evening. Drizzle and isolated
showers are then expected tonight across portions of the eastern half
of the CWA. Main concern however tonight will be fog development.
Visibility should drop quick early this evening through the Hill
Country expanding into the I-35 corridor late this evening and then
through the remainder of the Rio Grande as well as eastern CWA
overnight. Areas of dense fog are likely and a Dense Fog Advisory
could be required once trends develop.

Fog through the morning hours on Friday with breaks in the clouds and
warmer temperatures Friday afternoon. Highs Friday into the mid and
upper 60s. A mid and upper level low near the Arizona/Mexico border
Friday will open and race quickly east into Texas Friday night. The
shortwave will be in the process of dampening across the CWA, but
still enough forcing and available moisture to produce a few showers
Friday night into Saturday morning. Mid level lapse rates around 7-8
degC/km across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau Friday
night could also assist with isolated elevated thunderstorms.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The aforementioned mid and upper level shortwave Friday night will
will be lifting through the central and eastern CWA Saturday morning.
Isolated to scattered showers will be possible mainly through the
first half of the day Saturday along with isolated thunderstorms
given the previously mentioned lapse rates.

A warming trend will take place Saturday through Tuesday with above
normal temperatures developing. Highs by Monday and Tuesday will be
into the upper 70s, potentially lower 80s across portions of the
southwest CWA near the Rio Grande. The tail end of another weak mid
level shortwave will pass near the area Monday and Monday night.
However, the main forcing and better moisture with this disturbance
will remain north of the area.

There are still timing differences between the GFS and the
ECMWF/Canadian solutions with the stronger shortwave and associated
strong cold front sometime Wednesday or Thursday. GFS continues to be
faster, but has slowed somewhat from the 00Z run. We will continue
with a blended solution. Much colder Thursday behind the front. The
12Z GFS has also trended wetter behind the front Thursday and
Thursday night with potential winter precip. It`s too soon to put
this in the forecast given the lack of support from the ECMWF and run
to run consistency issues with the GFS.

[wxman57]

I would suggest monitoring the source region in western Canada for clues. Current temps there are not very cold at all. Watch to see if that changes over the next 4-5 days.

Doesn't appear to be biggest concern at this point (cold appears to be coming), don't you think it's more moisture return/suppression question than anything!!

Western Canada will be plenty cold. Not concerned about that. My concern is the trajectory of the cold.

My point was that we don't know how cold western Canada will get. It's only a model forecast for now. If we begin seeing very cold temps there, as we did in south-central Canada prior to the current outbreak, then we can believe the model forecasts of sub-freezing weather in Texas more than today.

[weatherdude1108]

This would be an infrastructure nightmare down here if this scenario panned out.

[Tireman4]

Needs lots and lots of model runs showing that over and over until I get interested. ( Thanks Wxman 57, but he is right. 3-5 days out is the key).

[Texas Snow]

And FWD has now chimed in:

By Friday night, the shortwave will enter North and Central
Texas, with the best forcing spreading into Central Texas after
midnight. The latest CAMs continue to lack in developing showers
and thunderstorms, but given steep midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7.5
C/km and the possibility of saturated parcels overcoming the weak
cap around 800 mb, some elevated activity remains possible during
the overnight hours. Any elevated storms would be able to produce
small to marginally severe hail during this time.

As the shortwave exits from west to east on Saturday, rain chances
will end as well. Latest guidance keeps most of the weekend rain-
free, but abundant cloud cover will remain across the region. The
first weekend of February will be warm, with highs on Sunday in
the 70s across the region. Mild nights with lows in the 50s to
near 60 degrees are expected. Despite temperatures 20-25 degrees
above normal, our record maximum and highest minimum temperatures
should remain safe.

Warm weather will continue on Monday and Tuesday, with some low
rain chances possible beginning Monday afternoon as a weak
disturbance slides across the region. At this time, model
soundings support scattered showers as a cap around 800 mb
remains in place. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible
across Central Texas, where the cap is weaker. Meanwhile, across
the western US, an upper level trough will deepen and begin to
track eastward towards the Plains. This system will bear watching
over the next several days, as a strong cold front accompanied by
precipitation chances will move across North and Central Texas
Wednesday night into Thursday. While ensembles and long range
guidance have hinted at the possibility of wintry precipitation,
it is far too early to include in the forecast.

[Cpv17]

Doesn't appear to be biggest concern at this point (cold appears to be coming), don't you think it's more moisture return/suppression question than anything!!

Western Canada will be plenty cold. Not concerned about that. My concern is the trajectory of the cold.

My point was that we don't know how cold western Canada will get. It's only a model forecast for now. If we begin seeing very cold temps there, as we did in south-central Canada prior to the current outbreak, then we can believe the model forecasts of sub-freezing weather in Texas more than today.

I agree with that, but the cold doesn’t seem like it wants to come south. It stays bottled up north. CPC has a high confidence in this as well.

[Brent]

18z GFS mostly ice some snow north of DFW

[gpsnowman]

18z GFS mostly ice some snow north of DFW

https://i.ibb.co/vj0Ld5X/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

GFS sticking to its guns at least. NBC 5 isn't too thrilled with much cold though on the 4 o'clock report. Really need to see those temps in NW Canada make a move colder the next couple days or we will be waiting for the next storm system.

[Brent]

18z GFS mostly ice some snow north of DFW

https://i.ibb.co/vj0Ld5X/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

GFS sticking to its guns at least. NBC 5 isn't too thrilled with much cold though on the 4 o'clock report. Really need to see those temps in NW Canada make a move colder the next couple days or we will be waiting for the next storm system.

Dan Brounoff at KRLD did put up on FB this morning "winter returning with a vengeance" so I guess we'll see

like I said earlier I'm gonna be a skeptic on frozen precip til we get more agreement

[bubba hotep]

Not worried about WCAN temps

[gpsnowman]

Thanks Bubba, I was just looking at the Yukon and Northwest Territories up there. They are cold but not that cold. Plenty of time for that to change.

[Cpv17]

Not worried about WCAN temps

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2019013112/ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_6.png

I’m not either.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS mostly ice some snow north of DFW

https://i.ibb.co/vj0Ld5X/gfs-asnow-scus-32.png

GFS sticking to its guns at least. NBC 5 isn't too thrilled with much cold though on the 4 o'clock report. Really need to see those temps in NW Canada make a move colder the next couple days or we will be waiting for the next storm system.

Dan Brounoff at KRLD did put up on FB this morning "winter returning with a vengeance" so I guess we'll see

like I said earlier I'm gonna be a skeptic on frozen precip til we get more agreement

Considering tv weather is focused on viewership, both of these approaches make sense. We’ve been burned already this winter on winter weather potential that didn’t play out, so downplaying for the sake of accuracy makes sense. On the other hand, with the cold in the Midwest currently, telling ntx that winter weather is coming will perk some people up as well. I think nbc has the right approach for now, and I don’t think we’ll see people taking this seriously until Sunday night or Monday, should the trend hold

[harp]

Question: What stops the cold air from plunging further south? Is it the stj??

[Brent]

GFS sticking to its guns at least. NBC 5 isn't too thrilled with much cold though on the 4 o'clock report. Really need to see those temps in NW Canada make a move colder the next couple days or we will be waiting for the next storm system.

Dan Brounoff at KRLD did put up on FB this morning "winter returning with a vengeance" so I guess we'll see

like I said earlier I'm gonna be a skeptic on frozen precip til we get more agreement

Considering tv weather is focused on viewership, both of these approaches make sense. We’ve been burned already this winter on winter weather potential that didn’t play out, so downplaying for the sake of accuracy makes sense. On the other hand, with the cold in the Midwest currently, telling ntx that winter weather is coming will perk some people up as well. I think nbc has the right approach for now, and I don’t think we’ll see people taking this seriously until Sunday night or Monday, should the trend hold

yeah even if we had unanimous model agreement(which we obviously don't here) I doubt we'd see much hype, it's still 6-7 days out, we'll know a lot more by Sunday I believe

the FV GFS has gone warmer for Thursday but has a quick shot of frozen Friday Morning and then another winter storm setup going into the weekend

[spencer817]

FV3 all ice, not bad totals for DFW.

[Brent]

looking at the GFS ensembles about half have a winter storm of some kind at some point in the next 10 and the other half have nada

About where we've been with every other setup at a week out so far