Texas Winter 2018-2019

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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4921 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 01, 2019 9:52 am

PLEASE READ

I am sharing this note with y’all with my Moderator hat on. Everyone here should know that this forum is only as good as the posts of its members. What makes it such a good forum IMO is that we have some professional meteorologists, educated enthusiasts, and general weather fans. It’s a nice mix and we try to keep the tone friendly and light. Sometimes things get out of hand. You will see this happen during hurricanes over in the tropical forum as tensions and emotions rise, people fire off posts without thinking, and the result is a less friendly and less helpful forum.

Another annoyance is complaining or whining. Think about this for a second, do any of us really like being around someone at our work or with friends and hear someone constantly complain and mean lady and moan? I don’t think so. It just brings you down, becomes annoying after a while, and the natural reaction is to get away from it. Well, I have received numerous complaints now from folks here about the complaining and whining getting out of hand. It has become so bad that some folks are choosing to not even check in or participate much. And, to me, that is a problem.

So like I said, this forum is only as good as its members’ posts. So every single one of you has an impact, whether you like it or not, with every post you make. Together, all of our comments and posts woven together create the fabric of the forum. Those of you who are frustrated by no winter weather … we get it. Hell, I get it better than anyone! And I will be frank in telling you that some few years back I had some members privately send me notes calling me out for my “Austin always gets screwed” posts. It got tiresome to them, so I am thankful that some of you did call me out and I try to be mindful of that when I feel like writing the “dammit, so-and-so got snow and I got the shaft” posts.

For the sake of the quality of this forum, I’m going to ask you all to be mindful of the same thing. It’s no different than if we all were in a bar or restaurant and having a conversation in person. We don’t want to control people or posts (providing they follow our rules), but we do want everyone to be aware that every post you make contributes to the quality of the forum. And if you don’t want to chase people off, then stop with the complaining, the emotional reactions to every single model run, the getting mad at wxman57 because what he is writing doesn’t jive with your hopes, etc.

I hope you all take this in the spirit in which it is meant … and that is one of good will. I want to see all of us be better and raise the level of our forum. Thank you.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4922 Postby harp » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:04 am

^^^^^^^^ Well said, sir.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4923 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:28 am

dhweather wrote:This Winter has just had too much zonal flow for any significant arctic intrusions. We do get a shot of cold air, it's gone in a day or two. Adding to the misery, it seems like every single trough has been positively tilted this year.


Yep, No downstream blocking and an incoherent Pacific with MJO lurching around getting overrun by ERW & KW. We need the Pacific to play nice and some blocking to setup.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4924 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:32 am

As a "state" of the winter against forecasts from early in the season. The maps and insights that the southeastern US would be the greatest below anomaly for the winter, so far, has proven to be incorrect. The Great Lakes region, Texas/New Mexico duo has proven to be closest. Despite the "cold always goes east of us" is a very short-sighted and easy explanation but in reality is not always proven true when the numbers are counted.

Image

Some of us likes to use Atlanta has a comparison to DFW. This winter in Atlanta temperature wise so far.

KATL
December: +3.3F
January: +2.6F

KDFW
December: +1.3F
January: -0.1F
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4925 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:43 am

And here is the 500mb anomaly. There has been Greenland Blocking, but there has also been lower heights over Hudson Bay. The Pacific, up to this point, has not been very El Nino ish. The Aleutian low has so far been dominated by an Aleutian high.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4926 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:52 am

One more post! Whether you believe the model or not on the cold is not the message here. But that the flow pattern at the surface for the next cold wave coming from Canada is poised to surge down the Great Plains due south more than due east or southeast. The path of least resistance for a -PNA pattern is cold air damming against the Rockies as the SE ridge will resist.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4927 Postby Cerlin » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:54 am

Ntxw wrote:And here is the 500mb anomaly. There has been Greenland Blocking, but there has also been lower heights over Hudson Bay. The Pacific, up to this point, has not been very El Nino ish. The Aleutian low has so far been dominated by an Aleutian high.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9c/cb/BOw192IM_o.gif

Seems like it’s been a very atypical year pattern wise. Are here any years that are good analogs for the types of factors we’ve been seeing?
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4928 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 01, 2019 10:59 am

Cerlin wrote:
Ntxw wrote:And here is the 500mb anomaly. There has been Greenland Blocking, but there has also been lower heights over Hudson Bay. The Pacific, up to this point, has not been very El Nino ish. The Aleutian low has so far been dominated by an Aleutian high.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9c/cb/BOw192IM_o.gif

Seems like it’s been a very atypical year pattern wise. Are here any years that are good analogs for the types of factors we’ve been seeing?


I haven't looked at all years prior to 1950. Closest I can get is 2001-2002 at 500mb but there are still differences.

Image

So far DFW is sort of mirroring 2001-2002.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4929 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:01 am

They are saying mid to upper 70s with lows in the 60s by next Monday and Tuesday. I think our AC went on the fritz back in November, just prior to the cold. Was blowing out barely cool instead of cold. I may have to get someone out for an AC tune up during the brief warm up. :P Guess better it happens now than the heart of Summer. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4930 Postby Cerlin » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:13 am

Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Ntxw wrote:And here is the 500mb anomaly. There has been Greenland Blocking, but there has also been lower heights over Hudson Bay. The Pacific, up to this point, has not been very El Nino ish. The Aleutian low has so far been dominated by an Aleutian high.

https://images2.imgbox.com/9c/cb/BOw192IM_o.gif

Seems like it’s been a very atypical year pattern wise. Are here any years that are good analogs for the types of factors we’ve been seeing?


I haven't looked at all years prior to 1950. Closest I can get is 2001-2002 at 500mb but there are still differences.

https://images2.imgbox.com/0b/74/HCkmtQQ2_o.jpg

So far DFW is sort of mirroring 2001-2002.

That year had about 4 inches in February for DFW and some March snow if I remember my snowfall stats correctly—I’m okay with that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4931 Postby mcheer23 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:32 am

GFS stalls the front out right near Houston...moves back north a day later. Houston never gets below 65.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4932 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:38 am

2001-2002 was colder.

Give me 1994-95 for futility, Alex.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4933 Postby gto67 » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:40 am

Portastorm wrote:PLEASE READ

I am sharing this note with y’all with my Moderator hat on. Everyone here should know that this forum is only as good as the posts of its members. What makes it such a good forum IMO is that we have some professional meteorologists, educated enthusiasts, and general weather fans. It’s a nice mix and we try to keep the tone friendly and light. Sometimes things get out of hand. You will see this happen during hurricanes over in the tropical forum as tensions and emotions rise, people fire off posts without thinking, and the result is a less friendly and less helpful forum.

Another annoyance is complaining or whining. Think about this for a second, do any of us really like being around someone at our work or with friends and hear someone constantly complain and mean lady and moan? I don’t think so. It just brings you down, becomes annoying after a while, and the natural reaction is to get away from it. Well, I have received numerous complaints now from folks here about the complaining and whining getting out of hand. It has become so bad that some folks are choosing to not even check in or participate much. And, to me, that is a problem.

So like I said, this forum is only as good as its members’ posts. So every single one of you has an impact, whether you like it or not, with every post you make. Together, all of our comments and posts woven together create the fabric of the forum. Those of you who are frustrated by no winter weather … we get it. Hell, I get it better than anyone! And I will be frank in telling you that some few years back I had some members privately send me notes calling me out for my “Austin always gets screwed” posts. It got tiresome to them, so I am thankful that some of you did call me out and I try to be mindful of that when I feel like writing the “dammit, so-and-so got snow and I got the shaft” posts.

For the sake of the quality of this forum, I’m going to ask you all to be mindful of the same thing. It’s no different than if we all were in a bar or restaurant and having a conversation in person. We don’t want to control people or posts (providing they follow our rules), but we do want everyone to be aware that every post you make contributes to the quality of the forum. And if you don’t want to chase people off, then stop with the complaining, the emotional reactions to every single model run, the getting mad at wxman57 because what he is writing doesn’t jive with your hopes, etc.

I hope you all take this in the spirit in which it is meant … and that is one of good will. I want to see all of us be better and raise the level of our forum. Thank you.


Here, Here
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4934 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:49 am

Quixotic wrote:2001-2002 was colder.

Give me 1994-95 for futility, Alex.


This is incorrect. December 2001 was 49.5F and January 2002 was 47.6F. Both warmer than the past two months respectively. February 2002 was 47F which isn't that cold just about the same as that January was. Also at 500mb 1994-1995 over the EPO region was much more akin to 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 with deep GOA low.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4935 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:51 am

12z GFS continues to point to a very wet period coming up for most of the state. This jives with the overall pattern evolution.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4936 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Feb 01, 2019 11:52 am

bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS continues to point to a very wet period coming up for most of the state. This jives with the overall pattern evolution.


Yep...while the cold air is uncertain, we look to be heading into a wet pattern over the next few weeks. I'll take it!
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4937 Postby cheezyWXguy » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:03 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:12z GFS continues to point to a very wet period coming up for most of the state. This jives with the overall pattern evolution.


Yep...while the cold air is uncertain, we look to be heading into a wet pattern over the next few weeks. I'll take it!


Agree 100%. While it was fun yesterday to see all the blues and pinks on the surface maps, the depictions of how the northern and southern streams will set up or interact have had very poor run-to-run and model-to-model consistency. But there are two general cues that we do see that are reassuring: a noisy stj and a cooling of the source region, at least to some extent. If these two elements verify and hang around for a while, our chances for a favorable set up improve, but I’m not going to let myself get caught up in trying to figure it out now...not again, haha. I’ll leave that to the pro-Mets on this board
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4938 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:03 pm

There is no way we can put any credibility in any of these models, at this point, beyond day 3-4...just look at the asinine MJO forecast differences b/w the GFS and Euro past day 4 :double:. Throw out most any forecast until they can come to better agreement!!

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4939 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:12 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Quixotic wrote:2001-2002 was colder.

Give me 1994-95 for futility, Alex.


This is incorrect. December 2001 was 49.5F and January 2002 was 47.6F. Both warmer than the past two months respectively. February 2002 was 47F which isn't that cold just about the same as that January was. Also at 500mb 1994-1995 over the EPO region was much more akin to 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 with deep GOA low.


Perhaps I should clarify: at this point the average temps could be called similar. However, 01-02 had 46 freezes at the airport, had multiple readings in the teens, and a season low of 14. I realize we haven’t hit February (or March) but we’d need to put the hammer down as we only have 19 freezes and a low of 25 for this winter. Which brings me to 94-95, a year that had 25 freezes and a low of 23 for the winter. And despite the details: the pacific is the reason both 94-95 and this winter are similar.
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Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019

#4940 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 01, 2019 12:30 pm

orangeblood wrote:There is no way we can put any credibility in any of these models, at this point, beyond day 3-4...just look at the asinine MJO forecast differences b/w the GFS and Euro past day 4 :double:. Throw out most any forecast until they can come to better agreement!!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif


I've noticed that here recently and the RMM plots have been struggling with the incoherent Pacific. Also, the GEFS is biased towards amplification as convection moves in WPAC. If you use a filtered MJO (removing ERW, KW, etc) is a slow moving low amp MJO look that probably spends all of February in 8/1/2. That points towards the MJO being in favorable phases for cold but also giving away some influence to the +ENSO background state.
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