Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

[CYCLONE MIKE]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

Seeing temps that the last few model runs show will make most people negative unless they just like hot, nasty winters. Looking at temps in the upper 70’s to near 80 for next week and the foreseeable future. Carbon copy of last winter happening, cold early on then by mid February winter is a distant memory.

[Ntxw]

PLEASE READ

I am sharing this note with y’all with my Moderator hat on. Everyone here should know that this forum is only as good as the posts of its members. What makes it such a good forum IMO is that we have some professional meteorologists, educated enthusiasts, and general weather fans. It’s a nice mix and we try to keep the tone friendly and light. Sometimes things get out of hand. You will see this happen during hurricanes over in the tropical forum as tensions and emotions rise, people fire off posts without thinking, and the result is a less friendly and less helpful forum.

Another annoyance is complaining or whining. Think about this for a second, do any of us really like being around someone at our work or with friends and hear someone constantly complain and mean lady and moan? I don’t think so. It just brings you down, becomes annoying after a while, and the natural reaction is to get away from it. Well, I have received numerous complaints now from folks here about the complaining and whining getting out of hand. It has become so bad that some folks are choosing to not even check in or participate much. And, to me, that is a problem.

So like I said, this forum is only as good as its members’ posts. So every single one of you has an impact, whether you like it or not, with every post you make. Together, all of our comments and posts woven together create the fabric of the forum. Those of you who are frustrated by no winter weather … we get it. Hell, I get it better than anyone! And I will be frank in telling you that some few years back I had some members privately send me notes calling me out for my “Austin always gets screwed” posts. It got tiresome to them, so I am thankful that some of you did call me out and I try to be mindful of that when I feel like writing the “dammit, so-and-so got snow and I got the shaft” posts.

For the sake of the quality of this forum, I’m going to ask you all to be mindful of the same thing. It’s no different than if we all were in a bar or restaurant and having a conversation in person. We don’t want to control people or posts (providing they follow our rules), but we do want everyone to be aware that every post you make contributes to the quality of the forum. And if you don’t want to chase people off, then stop with the complaining, the emotional reactions to every single model run, the getting mad at wxman57 because what he is writing doesn’t jive with your hopes, etc.

I hope you all take this in the spirit in which it is meant … and that is one of good will. I want to see all of us be better and raise the level of our forum. Thank you.

Yeah, right, lets see what your 0Z post says.

I think everyone here would give a standing ovation for the job you, wxman57, ntxw and others do in moderating the forum. It's a thankless job that can be rather tricky. So let me be the first to say THANK YOU!!!!!

So..... what you're trying to say is that people are complaining about people complaining.
I agree!

Complaining isn't the issue. It is different if done in PM. Even discussing grief at the nature of things is fine. Portastorm has given a good example that ALL of us generally feel the same way, unless it snows, no one wins. We just don't need every other page filled with complaining, it creates an unproductive atmosphere that isn't fair to everyone. The last thing us moderator group wants to do is delete posts that are redundant and don't add value like we do during hurricanes. We just don't want it to get out of hand. Usually if you state why you don't like a pattern or why something is then that is good enough. Until something changes.

As moderators we would not be bringing this up unless it has become a serious problem that other posters have made clear note.

[Brent]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

Seeing temps that the last few model runs show will make most people negative unless they just like hot, nasty winters. Looking at temps in the upper 70’s to near 80 for next week and the foreseeable future. Carbon copy of last winter happening, cold early on then by mid February winter is a distant memory.

Thats just it it hasnt even been that cold at least last year had cold. Our lowest low is like mid 20s so far thats pathetic

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Same here. We had more freezes last January alone than we have had this entire season.

[Quixotic]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

Hell, that’s reason smacking you in the face. Don’t be ashamed. Call it as you see it.

[Ntxw]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

Hell, that’s reason smacking you in the face. Don’t be ashamed. Call it as you see it.

Just don't call it 5 times within 3 pages. Once gets the message through.

[Haris]

sorry if I'm negative sometimes but its hard not to when you get a winter like this

Hell, that’s reason smacking you in the face. Don’t be ashamed. Call it as you see it.

Just don't call it 5 times within 3 pages. Once gets the message through.

Yep. I totally get Portastorms and everyones stance. Constant complaining does no good or benefit. It only creates a bad vibe. I am guilty of that sometimes myself however I've learned to adapt to the reality. I totally get everyones frustration. I am too. We just have to remain positive and be patient. It can be much worse.

[Haris]

I've learned so much on here and can't thank y'all enough. Please don't stop doing this. I've already missed out a lot with me not being on here before Dec of 2017.

[Ntxw]

Hell, that’s reason smacking you in the face. Don’t be ashamed. Call it as you see it.

Just don't call it 5 times within 3 pages. Once gets the message through.

Yep. I totally get Portastorms and everyones stance. Constant complaining does no good or benefit. It only creates a bad vibe. I am guilty of that sometimes myself however I've learned to adapt to the reality. I totally get everyones frustration. I am too. We just have to remain positive and be patient. It can be much worse.

Oh believe me I know. It is no fun or enjoyable for any of us that so far we haven't had much to show for it snow or really cold air. But nothing we can do about it, it's already happened and it's just mother nature. Look for the next one and move on.

[spencer817]

FV3 is our friend!

[Brent]

Just don't call it 5 times within 3 pages. Once gets the message through.

Yep. I totally get Portastorms and everyones stance. Constant complaining does no good or benefit. It only creates a bad vibe. I am guilty of that sometimes myself however I've learned to adapt to the reality. I totally get everyones frustration. I am too. We just have to remain positive and be patient. It can be much worse.

Oh believe me I know. It is no fun or enjoyable for any of us that so far we haven't had much to show for it snow or really cold air. But nothing we can do about it, it's already happened and it's just mother nature. Look for the next one and move on.

you do have a point though, I've already started thinking about next winter in between the ups and downs of the models

it will snow here again some day(I think...)

[Ntxw]

FV3 is our friend!

I think most of us are in a skeptical mode with the FV3. Up until one verifies, it's just mostly fantasy .

[Cerlin]

Very guilty of complaining but I always try to say something positive with every negative, even if it’s just appreciating the current weather or providing hope. I’m still learning of course and I appreciate everything everyone does here to teach and all the extremely valuable insight each and every one of you have on here. Weather sucks sometimes but weather is phenomenal and fascinating most of the time—and I hope we can focus more on the latter more often.

And winter still has its legs. The pattern still has a lot of time to develop and it’s not like winter can ever have boundaries that we’ll know of. We’ve seen it end in January and we’ve seen it go to April. Who knows! Not knowing is the fun part!! If we knew everything that was going to happen in advance, there wouldn’t be much room for forecasters now would there?

[spencer817]

FV3 is our friend!

I think most of us are in a skeptical mode with the FV3. Up until one verifies, it's just mostly fantasy .

I think even the CMC wins every once in awhile, so lets hope its consistency with this system is a sign.

[Ntxw]

FV3 is our friend!

I think most of us are in a skeptical mode with the FV3. Up until one verifies, it's just mostly fantasy .

I think even the CMC wins every once in awhile, so lets hope its consistency with this system is a sign.

I don't trust the qpf on the guidance right now. Conventional wisdom with the strong STJ and a pathway (highway) with a gradient from the Pacific to the Ohio Valley yields a lot of QPF. I don't think the FV3 will be wrong there. You don't even need the models to tell you high impact QPF event is on the way. You can see it coming on Satellite. Where or if the cold air meets that pathway is the million dollar question.

First we will have to navigate through a boring, mild stretch of about 5-7 days.

[Brent]

Very guilty of complaining but I always try to say something positive with every negative, even if it’s just appreciating the current weather or providing hope. I’m still learning of course and I appreciate everything everyone does here to teach and all the extremely valuable insight each and every one of you have on here. Weather sucks sometimes but weather is phenomenal and fascinating most of the time—and I hope we can focus more on the latter more often.

And winter still has its legs. The pattern still has a lot of time to develop and it’s not like winter can ever have boundaries that we’ll know of. We’ve seen it end in January and we’ve seen it go to April. Who knows! Not knowing is the fun part!! If we knew everything that was going to happen in advance, there wouldn’t be much room for forecasters now would there?

this is a really good point, I mean part of the fun of weather is the unpredictability and how it impacts daily life for everyone, I mean its why we were drawn to this hobby to begin with

and honestly if it snowed all the time it wouldn't be all that magical anymore...

[Haris]

Remember that NYC snow a year ago, Brent?! Can't forget about that! 4.8" @ Central Park!

[Brent]

Remember that NYC snow a year ago, Brent?! Can't forget about that! 4.8" @ Central Park!

how can I forget lol... tried to repeat it this year and got nothing but rainstorms... been a rough winter up there too

just shows you the unpredictablity of this winter... their biggest snowstorm so far was a totally surprise storm before Thanksgiving

[wxman57]

??? Regarding the cold air, I’m not sure if you’re just trolling us or you seriously don’t see the cold air ? See my post above, you have all models forecasting 25-30 C below normal in western Canada in less than 48 hrs, that is brutally cold this time of year by any measure. The cold air will be there, it’s just a matter of where it’s going...I like the overall model trends today - a high impact event seems likely next week anywhere from Nebraska to Austin haha!

I see some cold air in Canada's NW Territory, north of BC and Alberta. Big question is how much of it might head south and eventually reach the U.S. Just saw the 00Z GFS - not even a freeze as far south as the D-FW area over the next 16 days. GFS is not indicating a favorable flow aloft to bring a lot of cold air down here, which is why it's not forecasting any freeze. 00Z Canadian has only a light freeze into the D-FW area next Friday. 12Z Euro is a good bit colder (mid 20s D-FW area and upper 30s Houston). No freezing/frozen precip to speak of in any of those 3 models.