Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

SB has been like the winter so far. lol

[Haris]

I didn’t watch it. Watched a nice thriller movie instead.

[Cerlin]

Well the Super Bowl was underwhelming and boring until the very end...if that hold up as an analog for this winter, we might be in for something in this 4th quarter!

[Brent]

nothing like threatening record highs in our most promising snow month

although the DFW record is from 2008 and it snowed in March

also its truly amazing how fast the models change... not a single GFS ensemble has measurable snow in Dallas the entire run at 0z

[Haris]

The euro is still still showing snow fri Am. 4" on the 10:1 ratio map. LOL. Air temps in the mid-upper 30s.

[Brent]

The euro is still still showing snow fri Am. 4" on the 10:1 ratio map. LOL. Air temps in the mid-upper 30s.

GLWT

HRRR has mid 80s for at least parts of DFW tomorrow, record at the airport is 82. This "winter" continues to amaze me

[bubba hotep]

06z GFS has a multi day ice storm for DFW in the long range...

[orangeblood]

06z GFS has a multi day ice storm for DFW in the long range...

The teleconnection indices back that up, definitely a ice storm setup with low level cold air press in southwest upper level flow...should be a heck of a battleground setting up across the southern plains!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

[Ntxw]

Warm the next 3 days. This should come as a surprise to nobody as many here have already explained why it is so. Return flow from big low out west advects warm, moist air ahead of it. After these 3 days we will then start chipping away at the warm anomalies. It will remain near or below normal for the next 2-3 weeks.

[wxman57]

It sure is getting quiet in here. On the bright side (not for me), the GFS is predicting ice for Texas on the 17th, while the FV3 says the 14th. Meanwhile, winter is on-hold until Thursday's cold front.

[orangeblood]

The MJO Holy Grail of Feb Cold (Phase 8-1-2) starting to appear more likely....magnitude is obviously TBD!!

[bubba hotep]

06z GFS has a multi day ice storm for DFW in the long range...

The teleconnection indices back that up, definitely a ice storm setup with low level cold air press in southwest upper level flow...should be a heck of a battleground setting up across the southern plains!!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

+NAO & +WPO both favor a SE ridge, making it hard to get deep cold into the S. Plains. I would rather move on to Spring than deal with an ice storm.

Also, models seem to be trending towards +AO/NAO in the longer range... Looks like glancing blows of shallow cold air into late February for Texas. On reason to hold out hope? The models have sucked this winter.

[Ntxw]

It sure is getting quiet in here. On the bright side (not for me), the GFS is predicting ice for Texas on the 17th, while the FV3 says the 14th. Meanwhile, winter is on-hold until Thursday's cold front.

Quiet is bad. The mods have warned of the negative nancy posts deterring or deflecting posters and progressive discussions. It is one thing to say it as it is, it is another thing to drag the thread down to less activity. It has become less of grievance and borderline trolling, in my opinion.

[orangeblood]

06z GFS has a multi day ice storm for DFW in the long range...

The teleconnection indices back that up, definitely a ice storm setup with low level cold air press in southwest upper level flow...should be a heck of a battleground setting up across the southern plains!!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

+NAO & +WPO both favor a SE ridge, making it hard to get deep cold into the S. Plains. I would rather move on to Spring than deal with an ice storm.

Also, models seem to be trending towards +AO/NAO in the longer range... Looks like glancing blows of shallow cold air into late February for Texas. On reason to hold out hope? The models have sucked this winter.

With the magnitude of cold air being shown on the EPS, I have a very hard time believing that Southeast Ridge can hold on for very long.....

[Ntxw]

The teleconnection indices back that up, definitely a ice storm setup with low level cold air press in southwest upper level flow...should be a heck of a battleground setting up across the southern plains!!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

+NAO & +WPO both favor a SE ridge, making it hard to get deep cold into the S. Plains. I would rather move on to Spring than deal with an ice storm.

Also, models seem to be trending towards +AO/NAO in the longer range... Looks like glancing blows of shallow cold air into late February for Texas. On reason to hold out hope? The models have sucked this winter.

With the magnitude of cold air being shown on the EPS, I have a very hard time believing that Southeast Ridge can hold on for very long.....

There is going to be a southeast ridge with a -PNA. It comes with the package, I'd like to see the EPO overwhelm. The AO and NAO done little to help us the past month, especially the AO being very negative anyway.

[sphelps8681]

Going to Nacogdoches on the 18th for 4 days. Hope I do not have to contend with any ice.

[Tejas89]

Record hi forecast today at D/FW, breaking a record set all the way back in... 2008.

[orangeblood]

+NAO & +WPO both favor a SE ridge, making it hard to get deep cold into the S. Plains. I would rather move on to Spring than deal with an ice storm.

Also, models seem to be trending towards +AO/NAO in the longer range... Looks like glancing blows of shallow cold air into late February for Texas. On reason to hold out hope? The models have sucked this winter.

With the magnitude of cold air being shown on the EPS, I have a very hard time believing that Southeast Ridge can hold on for very long.....

There is going to be a southeast ridge with a -PNA. It comes with the package, I'd like to see the EPO overwhelm. The AO and NAO done little to help us the past month, especially the AO being very negative anyway.

I think that negative of a PNA looks a little overdone....it's probably the typical feedback issues models have with the mountain elevations!!

[wxman57]

Temps this morning down to -15F to -20F across central Montana. That's quite a bit colder than with our last front. Temps across central Alberta are as cold as -44F. Prior to the last strong front, temps there were above zero. Definitely colder air to work with now.