Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Portastorm]

Temps this morning down to -15F to -20F across central Montana. That's quite a bit colder than with our last front. Temps across central Alberta are as cold as -44F. Prior to the last strong front, temps there were above zero. Definitely colder air to work with now.

True, sir. But as you have taught us over numerous years ... the magnitude of cold in the "source region" is only part of the equation. We must have a favorable 500mb flow to deliver said cold air. The GFS has been funky about shunting to the east these highs coming down on the lee side of the Rockies. Don't know if it's right or wrong but I do know that's not a good direction for us if we want that cold air.

[gpsnowman]

Temps this morning down to -15F to -20F across central Montana. That's quite a bit colder than with our last front. Temps across central Alberta are as cold as -44F. Prior to the last strong front, temps there were above zero. Definitely colder air to work with now.

True, sir. But as you have taught us over numerous years ... the magnitude of cold in the "source region" is only part of the equation. We must have a favorable 500mb flow to deliver said cold air. The GFS has been funky about shunting to the east these highs coming down on the lee side of the Rockies. Don't know if it's right or wrong but I do know that's not a good direction for us if we want that cold air.

Temps in DFW have trended slightly downward for Thursday through the weekend. A couple freezes possible but the precipitation is bookended around the freezing air. Definitely a colder look end of the week.

[Portastorm]

Will be interesting to see if the trend continues. Still plenty of divergence in the models. For example, the 0z overnight runs for Austin for Friday morning (6 am) show:

CMC: 31 degrees
FV3-GFS: 35
Euro: 36
GFS: 39

[wxman57]

Temps this morning down to -15F to -20F across central Montana. That's quite a bit colder than with our last front. Temps across central Alberta are as cold as -44F. Prior to the last strong front, temps there were above zero. Definitely colder air to work with now.

True, sir. But as you have taught us over numerous years ... the magnitude of cold in the "source region" is only part of the equation. We must have a favorable 500mb flow to deliver said cold air. The GFS has been funky about shunting to the east these highs coming down on the lee side of the Rockies. Don't know if it's right or wrong but I do know that's not a good direction for us if we want that cold air.

Yes, it's part of the equation, but it's a vital part. Without cold up north, it can't get cold down here. The cold up there concerns me, which should be good news for the cold-mongerers here.

[nathanc1969]

I've decided to not even get excited about cold weather unless wxman57 mentions it. That being said....Lubbock now forecasting a low of 19 Friday morning.

[Cerlin]

Temps this morning down to -15F to -20F across central Montana. That's quite a bit colder than with our last front. Temps across central Alberta are as cold as -44F. Prior to the last strong front, temps there were above zero. Definitely colder air to work with now.

Fantastic news. Don’t know what to do with the news with the inaccuracy of models but it’s fantastic to hear.

[hriverajr]

It sure is getting quiet in here. On the bright side (not for me), the GFS is predicting ice for Texas on the 17th, while the FV3 says the 14th. Meanwhile, winter is on-hold until Thursday's cold front.

Quiet is bad. The mods have warned of the negative nancy posts deterring or deflecting posters and progressive discussions. It is one thing to say it as it is, it is another thing to drag the thread down to less activity. It has become less of grievance and borderline trolling, in my opinion.

I don't think anyone has been over the top or trolling. There has been some attempts at humor. There are less posts most likely because their is nothing exciting showing up in the short to intermediate time frame. It has always been that way.

[Ntxw]

It sure is getting quiet in here. On the bright side (not for me), the GFS is predicting ice for Texas on the 17th, while the FV3 says the 14th. Meanwhile, winter is on-hold until Thursday's cold front.

Quiet is bad. The mods have warned of the negative nancy posts deterring or deflecting posters and progressive discussions. It is one thing to say it as it is, it is another thing to drag the thread down to less activity. It has become less of grievance and borderline trolling, in my opinion.

I don't think anyone has been over the top or trolling. There has been some attempts at humor. There are less posts most likely because their is nothing exciting showing up in the short to intermediate time frame. It has always been that way.

Please refer to Portastorm's posting on complaints. There has been humor, but there has also been repetitive posts regarding the same thing over and over without much content on analysis as to why, or what changes they may see. We are not talking about down time because the models show nothing, people are simply not posting because they are discouraged at the negative comments with rebuttals "it's simply what the winter is" or "it's not going to happen" without much merit.

This is not a recent problem but has been a re-occurring problem. We've allowed it to continue, up until the point we have received complaints. So either it gets cleaned up by posters in general, or we will clean it up if we continue to see it progress in a matter that does not improve the thread.

[wxman57]

Take a look at this surface map from this morning (top image) vs. the same area back on January 17th (lower image). Much colder there now.

[Cerlin]

We just need to have our cold air line up with the moisture. February is going to be wet there’s no doubt about it, but we need to get the cold air to line up. It seems like it’s just bad luck but that’s kinda the issue with these glancing blows of arctic air. They’re usually accompanied by dry air. We haven’t been able to overpower the dry air with moisture yet and when we do it seems to just raise the temperature. But, it’s bound to happen and if we can get some surprise moisture with this upcoming cold front we could be in for something.

[Ntxw]

See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers .

[gpsnowman]

Take a look at this surface map from this morning (top image) vs. the same area back on January 17th (lower image). Much colder there now.

http://wxman57.com/images/coldtemps.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/Canada.JPG

Yep, that Canadian air is coming south. Places in BC, Alberta, and Saskatchewan have -40F readings this morning. I like to look at Aerisweather for temps in Canada. It used to be called Hamweather and Ntwx has posted maps from there numerous times I believe. Maybe this is a situation when models play catch-up with the magnitude of cold coming down the plains. Who knows, a surprise could be in store or maybe just plain old cold rain.

[gpsnowman]

Regardless of how cold it may get, we are in for a shock to the system later this week. Considering the warmth ahead the front should be able to drop temps some 30-35 degrees Thursday into Friday morning. IF it comes in a few degrees colder, Friday could be stuck in the 30's all day with wind. Yes please.

[Texas Snow]

:uarrow: See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers .

Beat me to it. Wxman57 is usually what I turn to when there is a little too much wish-casting going on to keep my expectations grounded. Now everybody has turned on Winter and the Heat Miser is the one saying, "Not So Fast My Friend."

[Ralph's Weather]

Take a look at this surface map from this morning (top image) vs. the same area back on January 17th (lower image). Much colder there now.

http://wxman57.com/images/coldtemps.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/Canada.JPG

Great post. -EPO, source region in the -30s and a 1045ish surface high over the Plains. That is a recipe for cold in the Southern Plains. Only real missing thing is a KS/OK snowpack.

I am interested to see if any of the shortwaves next week can dig into the SW before ejecting. If one can that will be a great set up for winter weather.

[hriverajr]

Personally I think there is overreaction to negative posts. Unless it's explicitly violating the rules, there should be no censorship. We are not children.

[harp]

The 12Z GFS and CMC were kind of blah.....(not being negative, just an observation)

[wxman57]

:uarrow: See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers .

Yes, it's a sad day when I have to be the cold-mongerer around here. 12Z GFS run is certainly not cold for TX. Only a light freeze in D-FW later this week. Coldest we see in Houston the next two weeks is mid 40s, with a couple runs at the 80s. The GFS will not handle shallow cold air well. Have to watch for that.

Meanwhile, time to add a few more bricks to my wall along the Montana border...

[Cerlin]

I’d post more about these trends if I knew what to say. I just don’t know much of anything!

[Portastorm]

Personally I think there is overreaction to negative posts. Unless it's explicitly violating the rules, there should be no censorship. We are not children.

You are certainly entitled to your opinion my friend. We cannot please everyone and that's ok by me. The irony here is that two of the most active mods on this thread -- me and Ntxw -- are actually pretty liberal when it comes to tolerating posts and comments (i.e., censorship). If you go back and re-read what I wrote on Friday morning, I was stressing personal responsibility and reminding all of us that we all play a role in the viability and worth of this forum. The more prone we are to emotional-based responses, the more volatile the forum becomes and the less value it maintains IMO.

I think this thread has quieted down because of a number of factors. As Cerlin wrote, many of us just don't know what to say because we are not sure what is going to happen. We're all hoping for something good but we've been burned so many times already ... it's like "wait and see."