Ntxw wrote::uarrow: See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers.
We're gonna win...We're gonna win....We're gonna win.....

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Ntxw wrote::uarrow: See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers.
Tireman4 wrote:Ntxw wrote::uarrow: See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers.
We're gonna win...We're gonna win....We're gonna win.....
orangeblood wrote:bubba hotep wrote:orangeblood wrote:
The teleconnection indices back that up, definitely a ice storm setup with low level cold air press in southwest upper level flow...should be a heck of a battleground setting up across the southern plains!!
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png
+NAO & +WPO both favor a SE ridge, making it hard to get deep cold into the S. Plains. I would rather move on to Spring than deal with an ice storm.
Also, models seem to be trending towards +AO/NAO in the longer range... Looks like glancing blows of shallow cold air into late February for Texas. On reason to hold out hope? The models have sucked this winter.
With the magnitude of cold air being shown on the EPS, I have a very hard time believing that Southeast Ridge can hold on for very long.....
Ralph's Weather wrote:wxman57 wrote:Take a look at this surface map from this morning (top image) vs. the same area back on January 17th (lower image). Much colder there now.
http://wxman57.com/images/coldtemps.JPG
http://wxman57.com/images/Canada.JPG
Great post. -EPO, source region in the -30s and a 1045ish surface high over the Plains. That is a recipe for cold in the Southern Plains. Only real missing thing is a KS/OK snowpack.
I am interested to see if any of the shortwaves next week can dig into the SW before ejecting. If one can that will be a great set up for winter weather.
Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
sphelps8681 wrote:Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
Something to watch. I am in the piney woods. When is this snow/ice event?
SoupBone wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
Something to watch. I am in the piney woods. When is this snow/ice event?
I though Piney Woods referred to upper NE Texas?
Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
bubba hotep wrote:The frustration is real. All we can do is try to continue to learn and hope for better results next time out.
bubba hotep wrote:I have mentioned that it's not just Texas that has been disappointed in this winter and the frustration with the longer range extends beyond this board. I'm sure everyone knows who Matt is and Dr. Butler is one of the top SSW researchers out there.
https://i.ibb.co/sJNHC8Q/Capture-2019-02-04-12-21-47-1.png
The frustration is real. All we can do is try to continue to learn and hope for better results next time out.
Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
SoupBone wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
Something to watch. I am in the piney woods. When is this snow/ice event?
I though Piney Woods referred to upper NE Texas?
Ntxw wrote:I am quite surprised (but not really till verification) that the guidance hardly brings that much cold down despite showing the strongest HPs of the season. So either the models are not fully integrated with reality of the cold air, at the surface, or the return flow is really doing its job to hold tight the cold roughly north of Oklahoma. Mid to upper 1040s is pretty decent if you ask me.
There is a distinct disconnect between the upper flow pattern and what is at the surface.
Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
Lagreeneyes03 wrote:Haris wrote:Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.
Considering the source is JB, that's probably why.![]()
Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:The frustration is real. All we can do is try to continue to learn and hope for better results next time out.
Been frustrating for sure. It even unloaded the cold to North America but the Pacific pattern did not want to give during the severe -AO (over -3 sigma) that dislodged the PVa towards the Great Lakes to some historic cold. Blip for Texas. Ironically we may endure a colder 2-3 week period here with the +AO than we did during the -AO. It's becoming more and more apparent as the years pass that we heavily rely on the Pacific. The Atlantic/adjacent Arctic often does not deliver.
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