Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

Don't sleep on early next week....return flow/moisture starts by the weekend while at the same time an extremely Strong HP heading south into Montana. If the models are underestimating the southward push, pretty significant upglide precip could breakout after frontal passage with temps approaching freezing!

[Ralph's Weather]

Don't sleep on early next week....return flow/moisture starts by the weekend while at the same time an extremely Strong HP heading south into Montana. If the models are underestimating the southward push, pretty significant upglide precip could breakout after frontal passage with temps approaching freezing!

Next week sure is intriguing. The Pacific is gonna be playing nicely and it is prime climo time.

[dhweather]

Looking at the GFS 2M temp anomaly loop , it appears that wxman57 actually built his wall along the Nebraska Kansas border.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=-12

[wxman57]

Looking at the GFS 2M temp anomaly loop , it appears that wxman57 actually built his wall along the Nebraska Kansas border.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=-12

A secondary wall is under construction along the northern Kansas border, but I'm having difficulty getting the Nebraskans to pay for it. They say it's Canada's cold air. I do find it a bit odd that there is no so much cold air in western Canada and the models indicate no significant penetration south to Texas. Nothing - even in the cold-mongering Canadian or FV3-GFS. I see the potential for a huge bust, though I'm not complaining about the lack of cold air here.

[Snowman67]

Looking at the GFS 2M temp anomaly loop , it appears that wxman57 actually built his wall along the Nebraska Kansas border.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=-12

A secondary wall is under construction along the northern Kansas border, but I'm having difficulty getting the Nebraskans to pay for it. They say it's Canada's cold air. I do find it a bit odd that there is no so much cold air in western Canada and the models indicate no significant penetration south to Texas. I see the potential for a huge bust, though I'm not complaining about the lack of cold air here.

Curious if you can recall seeing a similar set up (very cold air in western Canada), where the models had a big bust by underestimating its eventual impact on Texas

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Looking at the GFS 2M temp anomaly loop , it appears that wxman57 actually built his wall along the Nebraska Kansas border.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=-12

A secondary wall is under construction along the northern Kansas border, but I'm having difficulty getting the Nebraskans to pay for it. They say it's Canada's cold air. I do find it a bit odd that there is no so much cold air in western Canada and the models indicate no significant penetration south to Texas. Nothing - even in the cold-mongering Canadian or FV3-GFS. I see the potential for a huge bust, though I'm not complaining about the lack of cold air here.

Ooooh, I like it when wxman 57 talks like that:).

[wxman57]

Looking at the GFS 2M temp anomaly loop , it appears that wxman57 actually built his wall along the Nebraska Kansas border.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=-12

A secondary wall is under construction along the northern Kansas border, but I'm having difficulty getting the Nebraskans to pay for it. They say it's Canada's cold air. I do find it a bit odd that there is no so much cold air in western Canada and the models indicate no significant penetration south to Texas. I see the potential for a huge bust, though I'm not complaining about the lack of cold air here.

Curious if you can recall seeing a similar set up (very cold air in western Canada), where the models had a big bust by underestimating its eventual impact on Texas

I've been watching computer model runs since 1977, so I've seen lots of them. Of course, it wasn't too long ago when models didn't go out beyond 3-5 days. I can recall many instances when the GFS missed the cold air, but I can't recall a case when every single model (and there are a lot of them) missed the cold air. By missing the cold air I mean that they all shunted the cold air off to the southeast by mistake. Can we believe it when all of the models forecast above-normal temps with such cold air in SW Canada?

[Brent]

This weather has to go

[gpsnowman]

This weather has to go

Yeah I was sweating in places that have not perspired in a while. Turned on the car a/c and it felt great unfortunately. Just a few more days and winter will return.

[weatherdude1108]

A secondary wall is under construction along the northern Kansas border, but I'm having difficulty getting the Nebraskans to pay for it. They say it's Canada's cold air. I do find it a bit odd that there is no so much cold air in western Canada and the models indicate no significant penetration south to Texas. I see the potential for a huge bust, though I'm not complaining about the lack of cold air here.

Curious if you can recall seeing a similar set up (very cold air in western Canada), where the models had a big bust by underestimating its eventual impact on Texas

I've been watching computer model runs since 1977, so I've seen lots of them. Of course, it wasn't too long ago when models didn't go out beyond 3-5 days. I can recall many instances when the GFS missed the cold air, but I can't recall a case when every single model (and there are a lot of them) missed the cold air. By missing the cold air I mean that they all shunted the cold air off to the southeast by mistake. Can we believe it when all of the models forecast above-normal temps with such cold air in SW Canada?

http://wxman57.com/images/believe.jpg

You would think with the very nature of cold, dense air masses, they would follow the paths of least resistance (regardless of computer models). I've seen forecasts here bust on underestimating the temperatures (i.e., low of 40), only to see them bust (actual low of 25-30).

[missygirl810]

Looking at the GFS 2M temp anomaly loop , it appears that wxman57 actually built his wall along the Nebraska Kansas border.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=-12

A secondary wall is under construction along the northern Kansas border, but I'm having difficulty getting the Nebraskans to pay for it. They say it's Canada's cold air. I do find it a bit odd that there is no so much cold air in western Canada and the models indicate no significant penetration south to Texas. Nothing - even in the cold-mongering Canadian or FV3-GFS. I see the potential for a huge bust, though I'm not complaining about the lack of cold air here.

Will you be addressing these issues in the Storm2K State of the Union address this week?

[Cerlin]

Phew it’s toasty out. Refreshing but toasty. Ready for some white stuff to fall from the sky soon...

[orangeblood]

On important thing I think we all need to keep in mind...for all the reasons we caution to not give into a solution outside of 3-4 days, the same can be said for warmer solutions during the same frame. Very borderline events that could go either way, these are coming up over the next 10 days and need to watched closely

[Ntxw]

DFW made it to 80F today. No record but plenty warm. Austin is sitting around 75F and Houston is sitting about the same. There is a sagging cold front stalled in southern Oklahoma with a gradient of colder temperatures to the north of it. Oklahoma City is at 50F, Wichita KS at 39F, Omaha at 18F, and lastly Great Falls MT is at a cozy -9F.

[Cpv17]

It’s literally like a swamp here across southeast Texas. We’re so waterlogged here that one inch of rain would cause flash flooding.

[Haris]

1000-500 mb thickness level barely reaches red river on euro. As WXman57 said, bad model error. too warm. sleet only .

[Lagreeneyes03]

Looking at the GFS 2M temp anomaly loop , it appears that wxman57 actually built his wall along the Nebraska Kansas border.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=-12

A secondary wall is under construction along the northern Kansas border, but I'm having difficulty getting the Nebraskans to pay for it. They say it's Canada's cold air. I do find it a bit odd that there is no so much cold air in western Canada and the models indicate no significant penetration south to Texas. I see the potential for a huge bust, though I'm not complaining about the lack of cold air here.

Curious if you can recall seeing a similar set up (very cold air in western Canada), where the models had a big bust by underestimating its eventual impact on Texas

How likely is it that there is no bust, and temps stay on the warm side and we get early spring? ( my ideal scenario as I'm team Heat Miser, unless its super snowy)

[bubba hotep]

New Weeklies are kind of a mixed bag but, at this point, I'm not sure it matters because they have not been very good this winter.

[bubba hotep]

If it's not going to snow then can we lock this in?

[dhweather]

If it's not going to snow then can we lock this in?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020418/gfs_apcpn_scus_52.png

Fingers crossed, its getting kind of dry.