Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

Most models now show some winter PTYPE Friday down here. Likely sleet pellets

It doesn't look like a sleet profile. What I'm seeing in the model soundings is a precip layer between 10,000 and 15,000 ft up in sub-freezing air with quite dry air below there. This indicates snow, not sleet. However, it would have a very long way to fall in above-freezing air to reach the ground as snow. Sure, the lower 10,000 ft would moisten up and the evaporating snowflakes would cool the air column somewhat, but it's just so dry below about 8000 ft that the precip may evaporate before reaching the ground (virga).

I'd say you would have a better chance at seeing a stray small snowflake or a snow pellet (graupel) than a sleet pellet in Austin on Friday morning - just based on projected soundings. However, there really won't be much moisture available.

[orangeblood]

In the midst of our heat wave, Seattle was crippled for a day, and looks like possibly more on the way end of the week.

And even more next week...Seattle could be looking at 12-18" over the next 10 days

[wxman57]

Oh, I did finally find the big Texas snow event. Yeah, sure, it's the 384hr FV3-GFS, but it has to be correct eventually, right?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2019020512/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

[Portastorm]

Most models now show some winter PTYPE Friday down here. Likely sleet pellets

It doesn't look like a sleet profile. What I'm seeing in the model soundings is a precip layer between 10,000 and 15,000 ft up in sub-freezing air with quite dry air below there. This indicates snow, not sleet. However, it would have a very long way to fall in above-freezing air to reach the ground as snow. Sure, the lower 10,000 ft would moisten up and the evaporating snowflakes would cool the air column somewhat, but it's just so dry below about 8000 ft that the precip may evaporate before reaching the ground (virga).

I'd say you would have a better chance at seeing a stray small snowflake or a snow pellet (graupel) than a sleet pellet in Austin on Friday morning - just based on projected soundings. However, there really won't be much moisture available.

I will have Champ the Charger (the official chase vehicle of the Portastorm Weather Center) gassed up just in case ... but I am not expecting much action Friday. I nor the PWC's consultant from the Houston area just don't see how it's going to snow in a post frontal, overrunning environment with surface temps around 40. And that's what we're looking at here in Austin at the end of the week.

[hriverajr]

Most models now show some winter PTYPE Friday down here. Likely sleet pellets

It doesn't look like a sleet profile. What I'm seeing in the model soundings is a precip layer between 10,000 and 15,000 ft up in sub-freezing air with quite dry air below there. This indicates snow, not sleet. However, it would have a very long way to fall in above-freezing air to reach the ground as snow. Sure, the lower 10,000 ft would moisten up and the evaporating snowflakes would cool the air column somewhat, but it's just so dry below about 8000 ft that the precip may evaporate before reaching the ground (virga).

I'd say you would have a better chance at seeing a stray small snowflake or a snow pellet (graupel) than a sleet pellet in Austin on Friday morning - just based on projected soundings. However, there really won't be much moisture available.

I will have Champ the Charger (the official chase vehicle of the Portastorm Weather Center) gassed up just in case ... but I am not expecting much action Friday. I nor the PWC's consultant from the Houston area just don't see how it's going to snow in a post frontal, overrunning environment with surface temps around 40. And that's what we're looking at here in Austin at the end of the week.

JB says otherwise. He said so again today :p

[Cpv17]

It would be epic if the Houston-Galveston areas receive another 20 inches on Feb. 14-15 like the 1895 Valentine's Snowstorm but it aint gonna happen.

Epic is one word for it. Disastrous might be another. It would likely mean days of below-freezing temps, resulting in busted pipes in many homes/businesses and in the streets. Traffic would be shut down for days. Maybe we could wish for just a couple of inches?

Meanwhile, the weather is quite pleasant across Houston today.

It’s far from pleasant across the Houston area today, but ok man, whatever you say

[harp]

It doesn't look like a sleet profile. What I'm seeing in the model soundings is a precip layer between 10,000 and 15,000 ft up in sub-freezing air with quite dry air below there. This indicates snow, not sleet. However, it would have a very long way to fall in above-freezing air to reach the ground as snow. Sure, the lower 10,000 ft would moisten up and the evaporating snowflakes would cool the air column somewhat, but it's just so dry below about 8000 ft that the precip may evaporate before reaching the ground (virga).

I'd say you would have a better chance at seeing a stray small snowflake or a snow pellet (graupel) than a sleet pellet in Austin on Friday morning - just based on projected soundings. However, there really won't be much moisture available.

I will have Champ the Charger (the official chase vehicle of the Portastorm Weather Center) gassed up just in case ... but I am not expecting much action Friday. I nor the PWC's consultant from the Houston area just don't see how it's going to snow in a post frontal, overrunning environment with surface temps around 40. And that's what we're looking at here in Austin at the end of the week.

JB says otherwise. He said so again today :p

JB is NOT backing down. As a matter of fact, he sounds more certain now than ever.

[hriverajr]

Heck it's 79 here, and the sun is not even out. DRT

[hriverajr]

Heck it's 79 here, and the sun is not even out. DRT

BTW I have an ambient.. six feet off the ground in the backyard, and I have atlas on the roof with an wind vane extension up at about 25 feet. I average the temps hahah

[wxman57]

It doesn't look like a sleet profile. What I'm seeing in the model soundings is a precip layer between 10,000 and 15,000 ft up in sub-freezing air with quite dry air below there. This indicates snow, not sleet. However, it would have a very long way to fall in above-freezing air to reach the ground as snow. Sure, the lower 10,000 ft would moisten up and the evaporating snowflakes would cool the air column somewhat, but it's just so dry below about 8000 ft that the precip may evaporate before reaching the ground (virga).

I'd say you would have a better chance at seeing a stray small snowflake or a snow pellet (graupel) than a sleet pellet in Austin on Friday morning - just based on projected soundings. However, there really won't be much moisture available.

I will have Champ the Charger (the official chase vehicle of the Portastorm Weather Center) gassed up just in case ... but I am not expecting much action Friday. I nor the PWC's consultant from the Houston area just don't see how it's going to snow in a post frontal, overrunning environment with surface temps around 40. And that's what we're looking at here in Austin at the end of the week.

JB says otherwise. He said so again today :p

I was referring specifically to the Austin area, though I can't find any station with a sleet profile. The sounding below is what I discussed. Note that the entire precip column is in air well below freezing. That's snow. Sleet forms when rain falls through sub-freezing air. Not happening in Austin if the GFS sounding is even close to right. I believe that Joe was looking at the precip type maps with blues and pinks but not really looking too closely at Texas. His main concern has always been the northeast.

[Snowman67]

I will have Champ the Charger (the official chase vehicle of the Portastorm Weather Center) gassed up just in case ... but I am not expecting much action Friday. I nor the PWC's consultant from the Houston area just don't see how it's going to snow in a post frontal, overrunning environment with surface temps around 40. And that's what we're looking at here in Austin at the end of the week.

JB says otherwise. He said so again today :p

[b]JB is NOT backing down. As a matter of fact, he sounds more certain now than ever.

What is JB saying specifically?

[wxman57]

JB says otherwise. He said so again today :p

[b]JB is NOT backing down. As a matter of fact, he sounds more certain now than ever.

What is JB saying specifically?

His exact words were:

"By the way, there's gonna be snow and sleet in Texas, mainly ice and sleet in Texas. You folks from San Antonio northeastward into the piney woods of northern Louisiana - you got a winter weather event coming up on Friday. I don't think the US models are seeing it. I think you're in for ice."

I don't know how closely he's really looked at Texas, though.

[Yukon Cornelius]

[b]JB is NOT backing down. As a matter of fact, he sounds more certain now than ever.

What is JB saying specifically?

His exact words were:

"By the way, there's gonna be snow and sleet in Texas, mainly ice and sleet in Texas. You folks from San Antonio northeastward into the piney woods of northern Louisiana - you got a winter weather event coming up on Friday. I don't think the US models are seeing it. I think you're in for ice."

I don't know how closely he's really looked at Texas, though.

That seems like a pretty bold statement with temps way above freezing.

[wxman57]

Like I said, JB thinks the air will be colder than the models are forecasting. I'm not so sure about that.

[Snowman67]

Like I said, JB thinks the air will be colder than the models are forecasting. I'm not so sure about that.

He's obviously not taking into account your portable wall that is now in central Oklahoma...

[JMoses3419]

Like I said, JB thinks the air will be colder than the models are forecasting. I'm not so sure about that.

He's obviously not taking into account your portable wall that is now in central Oklahoma...

That front is a lot further south than was initially expected. 3 days ago it looked like OKC would crack 70° tomorrow...now, we'll be lucky if we hit 50°, and freezing drizzle may impact the north and west sides of town to boot tonight!

[Cpv17]

Winter is pretty much done with for most of Texas folks, especially the southern half. Bring on several inches of rain and severe thunderstorms please. I’m done with winter.

[wxman57]

That front is a lot further south than was initially expected. 3 days ago it looked like OKC would crack 70° tomorrow...now, we'll be lucky if we hit 50°, and freezing drizzle may impact the north and west sides of town to boot tonight!

Monday's 12Z GFS had the front passing Oklahoma City around 10am today and reaching the Red River border with Texas by now. It's moving a little more slowly than that.

However, Sunday's GFS had the front reaching OKC around 4am THURSDAY - way too slow. Trend has been for an earlier frontal passage, which is a common GFS issue.

[orangeblood]

Winter is pretty much done with for most of Texas folks, especially the southern half. Bring on several inches of rain and severe thunderstorms please. I’m done with winter.

It’s only Feb 5 and MJO is showing signs of rotating through the most enjoyable winter phases we have in the southern US. I know it’s frustrating but still too early to write off winter

[Brent]

Perhaps this storm will verify