Texas Winter 2018-2019

[bubba hotep]

Last Thursday morning, I posted a graphic comparing the 00Z Jan 30th forecast from the GFS and the FV3-GFS. The forecast was for 12Z this morning (6am). FV3 was going 14 in DFW while the GFS was predicting 43. Looks like the FV3-GFS won, as it hit 23-24 in DFW. Not 14, but closer than 43. GFS was consistently too warm (sad, for me).

http://wxman57.com/images/GFSComparison.gif

Night time cold bias has been one of the issues with the FV3, I don't know if that has been tweaked or not. But still not as bad as the GFS warm bias.

[Tejas89]

wxman57 is right in D/FW dealing with very dry air.

Radar and temps, at least, look similar to a classic overriding sleet event. Just not enough moisture!

[jasons2k]

I got down to a chilly 36 here this morning, a bit cooler than forecast.

A few minutes ago I had a passing sleet shower, mixed with drizzle, at 41.5 degrees.

[fendie]

Got some heavy thunder sleet in Dripping Springs. Roofs and flower beds covered with white pellets.

[TexasF6]

THUNDERSLEET IN NW AUSTIN @LONGHORNWXCENTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHITEOUT!!!!!!!! #TeamPorta #TeamAustinFrozenStuff #TeamSnowySnow

[Portastorm]

THUNDERSLEET IN NW AUSTIN @LONGHORNWXCENTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHITEOUT!!!!!!!! #TeamPorta #TeamAustinFrozenStuff #TeamSnowySnow

Go buy a lottery ticket TexasF6, it's your lucky day!!

[1900hurricane]

The sky shook its dandruff on me today.

[weatherdude1108]

Who would have thunk? Thought we'd go the whole day with just a little graupel, seeing as we're the graupel capital.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
142 PM CST Fri Feb 8 2019


TXZ171>173-186-188>190-192-090000-
/O.NEW.KEWX.WW.Y.0001.190208T1942Z-190209T0000Z/
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Kerr-Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Travis-
Including the cities of Llano, Burnet, Georgetown, Kerrville,
Fredericksburg, Boerne, Blanco, and Austin
142 PM CST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Sleet. Additional sleet accumulations primarily on grassy
surfaces but some slushy conditions on roadways will be
possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Texas.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The hazardous conditions could impact the
evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of freezing rain
will cause travel difficulties. Expect slippery roads. Slow down
and use caution while driving.

The latest road conditions for the state can be obtained at
drivetexas.org.

[HockeyTx82]

The sky shook its dandruff on me today.

Sounds like Mother Nature needs some Head & Shoulders

[jasons2k]

Had another band of sleet here too. Thought there was a bit of graupel in it as well.

[orangeblood]

Last Thursday morning, I posted a graphic comparing the 00Z Jan 30th forecast from the GFS and the FV3-GFS. The forecast was for 12Z this morning (6am). FV3 was going 14 in DFW while the GFS was predicting 43. Looks like the FV3-GFS won, as it hit 23-24 in DFW. Not 14, but closer than 43. GFS was consistently too warm (sad, for me).

http://wxman57.com/images/GFSComparison.gif

Night time cold bias has been one of the issues with the FV3, I don't know if that has been tweaked or not. But still not as bad as the GFS warm bias.

To the FV3's credit, it believes there is snow on the ground for that 14 forecast....well obviously there wasn't so 23 is dam* good from 10 days out!!!!

[Ntxw]

Ok, at what point will this begin to show up in the global models? Tomorrow, next week? I'm just curious at to the thoughts of the knowledgeable folks in here. Thanks.

Depends on location. Areas west of the MS, particular Great Plains, Great Basin, Rockies, and Pacific Northwest looks to be in a good seat via -PNA. Might be some quick warm ups ahead of digging systems. Areas East of the MS or close by likely has seen the peak of their winter back in January with the +PNA.

Not sure about that....Phase 8-1-2 during an El Nino is pretty overwhelming that the southern US, particularly the southeast has below normal temps and above normal precip. Ton of High Pressure in Canada with the southern stream active, that should push the southeast ridge out

Their fate will rest on the NAO, which has not seen sustained negative values in a long time. I don't see any sig +PNA signal. I do agree even the southeastern US and perhaps east coast will deal with some winter yet, just that their peak was likely last month with the +PNA and the core cold will center more in the west and plains.

[Tireman4]

Special Weather Statement
Weather Updated: Feb 08 2:38PM
Issued by the National Weather Service
For Inland Harris, Texas
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT UNTIL 4PM CST FRI ...SLEET CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... AT 231 PM CST, THE PUBLIC HAS REPORTED A MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET, AS WELL AS PERIODS OF SLEET. SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED, THE MOST INTENSE PERIODS OF SLEET MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS FORA FEW MINUTES BEFORE THE SLEET MELTS ENTIRELY. BRIDGES AND ELEVATED SURFACES WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY MINOR ISSUES. FOLLOWING SAFETY PRECAUTIONS FOR WET AND SLIPPERY ROADS, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO: DRIVING MORE CAUTIOUSLY, ALLOWING GREATER SPACE BETWEEN VEHICLES, AND ALLOWING FOR MORE TRAVEL TIME MAY BE HELPFUL WHEN TRAVELING THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED INCLUDE... COLLEGE STATION, BRYAN, CONROE, HUNTSVILLE, BRENHAM, TOMBALL, NAVASOTA, SEALY, HEMPSTEAD, WILLIS, PRAIRIE VIEW, MADISONVILLE, CALDWELL, BELLVILLE, COLUMBUS, EAGLE LAKE, PINEHURST, THE WOODLANDS, WASHINGTON AND HOCKLEY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STROKE HAS OCCURRED TODAY, AND CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT GOING FORWARD. IF YOU SEE LIGHTNING OR HEAR THUNDER, SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE. &&

[gpsnowman]

The trajectory of some of these bands of precip look great for DFW but completely vanish as they approach the dry North Texas air. Crap!!!!!! Hopefully that changes later tonight into Saturday morning.

[Ralph's Weather]

Highway 64 near Henderson accumulating sleet. 28 degrees.

[harp]

We, here in Louisiana, are living vicariously through you folks.

[SoupBone]

Just gotta quickly post. NW Houston got pellets for a few minutes about 2 hours ago. Starting to see them again! Haha

[rwfromkansas]

The trajectory of some of these bands of precip look great for DFW but completely vanish as they approach the dry North Texas air. Crap!!!!!! Hopefully that changes later tonight into Saturday morning.

Seems they get a bit closer than before at least. Just need to find a way to get a bit more moisture involved. But, I would bet we won't get anything. I am not sure there is enough moisture to overcome the dry air, but since it's been a bit of a surprise further south, I'm hopeful. At the same time, we are planning on going to downtown FW tonight. Don't want to get stuck down there. lol Either come before or show up after we get home...

[srainhoutx]

Light sleet/rain mix for the 3rd time today across NW Harris County

[bubba hotep]

Looks like DFW is going to bust low by a decent margin with the airport still at 34F. There is a decent cluster of members on the 15 SREF that get snow into DFW after 00z #NeverGiveUpHope