Texas Winter 2018-2019
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
harp wrote:Hopefully, this was not a rogue run.... see what the ensembles show.
GEFS backs it operational up but with the axis of heaviest accumulations along the red river into Oklahoma but bottom line is there are plenty of members singing the same tune - increasing odds for a major winter storm early next week!!
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Of course, that's how ensembles work...they'll improve as you get closer.
0 likes
- TeamPlayersBlue
- Category 5
- Posts: 3310
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 1:44 am
- Location: Denver/Applewood, CO
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Things to note on this storm @ 180hrs.
Where is the HP? feel like the models have this wrong. Energy pouring down through the upper midwest but the surface pressures dont look right and the high is way up near the arctic....Could it be much colder than it's actually showing?
Heights over Alaska are increasing over this period, which helps the source region for our cold air. This could be the most important thing to watch. With this subtropical system near Hawaii, it could cause issues for the models, but if you look at the upper level high near alaska, for some reason, it didnt look right to me. I felt like it should be poking up into Alaska to near the North Slope. Thats just me though, these models are smarter than me.
GFS continues to show the storm deepening into Texas. Lets hope the trend continues.
Also, BEWARE! It's still over one week out and we know this storm will disappear around the 5 day mark.
You have to pardon my rambling. I usually look at very minute things in the Pacific for tales on what happens in our weather.
Where is the HP? feel like the models have this wrong. Energy pouring down through the upper midwest but the surface pressures dont look right and the high is way up near the arctic....Could it be much colder than it's actually showing?
Heights over Alaska are increasing over this period, which helps the source region for our cold air. This could be the most important thing to watch. With this subtropical system near Hawaii, it could cause issues for the models, but if you look at the upper level high near alaska, for some reason, it didnt look right to me. I felt like it should be poking up into Alaska to near the North Slope. Thats just me though, these models are smarter than me.
GFS continues to show the storm deepening into Texas. Lets hope the trend continues.
Also, BEWARE! It's still over one week out and we know this storm will disappear around the 5 day mark.
You have to pardon my rambling. I usually look at very minute things in the Pacific for tales on what happens in our weather.
2 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37146
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
orangeblood wrote:
Of course, that's how ensembles work...they'll improve as you get closer.
we hope and I hope it happens
but sorry if I'm a skeptic but its been a long awful winter of teases
4 likes
#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Super promising. Most of them have moisture and quite a few have a nice snow storm.
0 likes
Undergraduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma and Operator at the Oklahoma Mesonet.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
All opinions independent of employers and the university.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
wxman57 wrote:orangeblood wrote:Mr. Heat Miser - when you get a chance, will you please break down the 12Z GFS meteogram for next Monday in both DFW and Austin!!!
Heavy snow for the D-FW area. I certainly believe it. Hope you do get a snow storm up there. Then we can proclaim winter to be over.
If you throw SE Texas into the winter fun, then you have a deal
1 likes
Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Certainly interesting with cold coming in and trough coming out with the Euro. It may or may not show much but good trends today.
1 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37146
- Age: 35
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Euro looks like mostly rain Monday although the frozen isnt far away
Tuesday looks more interesting icy in DFW
Tuesday looks more interesting icy in DFW
1 likes
#neversummer
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Ntxw wrote:Certainly interesting with cold coming in and trough coming out with the Euro. It may or may not show much but good trends today.
Yes, deeper/slower trend is what we want to see (but not too far as to cut it off)...not the faster/progressive trend of the past 3 years it seems!
1 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
The Euro looks terrible for precipitation across Texas for the next 10 days with the exception of far east Texas. Hopefully that changes.
2 likes
- Haris
- Category 5
- Posts: 1808
- Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:19 pm
- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
The daily fog,mist and drizzle is quite annoying. It needs to start actually raining. Its getting pretty dry! I am hopeful with El Nino further developing that the atmosphere will start coupling soon and spring will get active!
2 likes
Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Here's a comparison between the 00Z and 12Z Euro as far as snow accumulations in Texas. Euro doesn't agree with the 12Z GFS at all. No FV3-GFS yet. It performed better than the GFS across TX with the past system.
1 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Here's a comparison of predicted temps from the Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) for the D-FW area. GFS is quite a bit colder. I'm not buying the 12Z GFS run at all.
0 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Big blob of rain moving into DFW. Looks light but could last a couple hours.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Here are the GFS ensembles snowfall predictions for D-FW. 13 of 20 ensembles members indicate SOME snow (trace or more). Two indicate "snowmageddon". No EC ensembles in yet. Canadian model says "the GFS is on crack". It indicates mixed precip after FROPA, less than last week.
3 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3334
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
- Location: Fort Worth, TX
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
Euro looks like a sleet profile for DFW....0.1 to .2 inch QPF after temps fall to freezing with a warm nose of 2-3 C from 650-850 mb
I'm not too fond of the EPS snow forecasts...they've been extremely unreliable lately!
I'm not too fond of the EPS snow forecasts...they've been extremely unreliable lately!
2 likes
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
The last 28 runs of the GFS for 18Z 02/18/2019
I'm positive one of these will be correct!
I'm positive one of these will be correct!
3 likes
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Texas Winter 2018-2019
dhweather wrote:The last 28 runs of the GFS for 18Z 02/18/2019
https://media.giphy.com/media/EBuQbzJD99S8nWalAy/giphy.gif
I'm positive one of these will be correct!
Consistency is somewhat lacking, to say the least.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests