wxman57 wrote:Brent wrote:The 18z GFS is entirely different
Zero snow for most but 30 inches in Alabama
Oh, come on, it's only 20-25 inches for Alabama.
Oh my bad the clown map has 37 inches
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wxman57 wrote:Brent wrote:The 18z GFS is entirely different
Zero snow for most but 30 inches in Alabama
Oh, come on, it's only 20-25 inches for Alabama.
sphelps8681 wrote:Rented a cabin in Nacogdoches. We will be arriving the 18th. Any signs we may get snow/sleet/freezing rain? Will be leaving to go back home on the 21st. Need to know how to pack.
Haris wrote:[url]https://i.ibb.co/Fsr90t6/Screen-Shot-2019-02-11-at-5-29-48-PM.png [/url]
Ntxw wrote:sphelps8681 wrote:Rented a cabin in Nacogdoches. We will be arriving the 18th. Any signs we may get snow/sleet/freezing rain? Will be leaving to go back home on the 21st. Need to know how to pack.
it's possible but too early to tell. All guidance point to an impactful system that will bring rain and thunderstorms at the very least followed by and with cold air within the time period you posted. Timing of course is tbd. If packing I'd take all necessary supplies.
Ntxw wrote:So what's changed? Well the Pacific. We finally got the tropical convection to move out of the maritime continent and into the Pacific. That allowed the subtropical jet to come back roaring. Now we are looking at an AEJ extension which is pushing along the MJO into the P7-8-1-2 through later Feb and early March. We've been looping in the same 6-7 phases for over a month without much movement. What does that all mean? It means the Pacific Northwest trough gets flushed also down to the Southern Rockies and out into the Southern Plains. This is likely our last real shot for a comeback, it's game over if this fails.
Perhaps wxman57's wall is cracking. So far it's been bend but don't break.
https://images2.imgbox.com/50/93/FXN50KdZ_o.gif
Brent wrote:0z GFS dry Monday very cold rain Tuesday in the mid upper 30s with snow NW of the metro maybe ending as flurries Tuesday Night
Need more solutions like the 12z
Cerlin wrote:Brent wrote:0z GFS dry Monday very cold rain Tuesday in the mid upper 30s with snow NW of the metro maybe ending as flurries Tuesday Night
Need more solutions like the 12z
Agreed...but the trends still look good imo AND it drops another massive snowstorm on the 25th. Winter’s whispers are slowly murmuring louder.
wxman57 wrote:Let's play a Facebook game. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run for next Monday. Are you a genius?"
orangeblood wrote:wxman57 wrote:Let's play a Facebook game. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run for next Monday. Are you a genius?"
Ok, let's play another game...Count the number of GFS Ensemble members showing accumulating snow for DFW in the picture ?
http://i68.tinypic.com/2cep5ow.jpg
wxman57 wrote:orangeblood wrote:wxman57 wrote:Let's play a Facebook game. "Only one in 100 meteorologists can spot the anomalous GFS run for next Monday. Are you a genius?"
Ok, let's play another game...Count the number of GFS Ensemble members showing accumulating snow for DFW in the picture ?
http://i68.tinypic.com/2cep5ow.jpg
Yeah, and the 00Z GFS ensembles had 4 members with snow in DFW. GFS is all over the place each run. 00Z Euro has 32 as the coldest temp in DFW next week (Wednesday).
I think we need to wait until this weekend's model runs to see more agreement.
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