Texas Winter 2018-2019

[wxman57]

I made a comparison animated GIF of the GFS-predicted temps across Texas from the 12Z Monday run (6am CST) and this morning's run. Quite a difference - about 25F warmer in the latest run. The GFS has been predicting a 1040+ mb high dropping into Montana for days. However, the high just shoots off to the east rather than south down the Plains. We'll get SOME cold air next week, but I'm not seeing a significant winter weather event across Texas.

[wxman57]

As I sit in my corner cubicle in our operations center, I can hear Arctic Thunder telling South Texas Storms (who sits just across from us) that he's going "a lot warmer" with his forecasts". Arctic Thunder says he "threw in the towel" as far as Texas winter weather weeks ago. Meanwhile, South Texas Storms is talking about blowing up my wall for NEXT winter. it seems he has conceded, too. His bet that Houston's Bush Airport will reach 25F by February 15th was a bad gamble. I'll be reinforcing my wall during the summer months.

In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336

When do we get these warm temps? Next week in DFW is looking pretty rough. Too chilly for my liking. I've thrown in the towel on snow and as a heat lover, I'm looking forward to hopefully a warmer and stormier spring

Someone after my own heart. Nice to see a fellow warm weather lover here. We probably have another 4 weeks or so before the real warm-up begins.

[Ralph's Weather]

I got down to 28 this morning, did not expect that.

[BrokenGlass]

As I sit in my corner cubicle in our operations center, I can hear Arctic Thunder telling South Texas Storms (who sits just across from us) that he's going "a lot warmer" with his forecasts". Arctic Thunder says he "threw in the towel" as far as Texas winter weather weeks ago. Meanwhile, South Texas Storms is talking about blowing up my wall for NEXT winter. it seems he has conceded, too. His bet that Houston's Bush Airport will reach 25F by February 15th was a bad gamble. I'll be reinforcing my wall during the summer months.

In other news, the 6Z FV3-GFS says "never mind", as far as that D-FW snow storm around the 27th-28th.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019021306&fh=336

When do we get these warm temps? Next week in DFW is looking pretty rough. Too chilly for my liking. I've thrown in the towel on snow and as a heat lover, I'm looking forward to hopefully a warmer and stormier spring

Someone after my own heart. Nice to see a fellow warm weather lover here. We probably have another 4 weeks or so before the real warm-up begins.

And so begins the yard work.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Tejas89]

WFAA's extended forecast has a blustery 37 for a low next Thursday. Such are the "cold fronts" this winter. Time to move on to spring and some rain events.

[Cerlin]

[SoupBone]

1040 plus HP crossing the Canadian Border early next week...that is plenty strong enough and taking the right trajectory to make a decent push into the southern plains

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_21.png

My long-time (30 yrs) coworker, the cold-mongerer Arctic Thunder, says that a 5-day GFS forecast does not count. If and when the high center actually crosses the U.S. border, then we can expect cold. Meanwhile, I'm taking Friday off to bike in 80 degree temps.

I hope you get swarmed by 1000's of mosquitoes, and get carried off to North Dakota! The mosquitoes are already bad, how can you support this?!

[orangeblood]

1040 plus HP crossing the Canadian Border early next week...that is plenty strong enough and taking the right trajectory to make a decent push into the southern plains

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_21.png

My long-time (30 yrs) coworker, the cold-mongerer Arctic Thunder, says that a 5-day GFS forecast does not count. If and when the high center actually crosses the U.S. border, then we can expect cold. Meanwhile, I'm taking Friday off to bike in 80 degree temps.

haha well if we didn't discuss 5 day forecasts and such on here, this board would cease to exist so not sure what your point is ?? One logical conclusion one can take from Arctic Thunder's post regarding strength of HPs crossing the Canadian border and impacts in the southern plains, is that if a model is forecasting XX strength crossing the Canadian Border and the subsequent forecasts don't match up....wouldn't that be reason to question the models downstream forecast ?

[hriverajr]

For those of you who want the warmth to come early.. Come down to Del Rio or Laredo in the Summer and see how much you like it. The longer it takes to get warmer the better as far as I am concerned.

[wxman57]

1040 plus HP crossing the Canadian Border early next week...that is plenty strong enough and taking the right trajectory to make a decent push into the southern plains

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021312/gfs_mslpaNorm_us_21.png

My long-time (30 yrs) coworker, the cold-mongerer Arctic Thunder, says that a 5-day GFS forecast does not count. If and when the high center actually crosses the U.S. border, then we can expect cold. Meanwhile, I'm taking Friday off to bike in 80 degree temps.

haha well if we didn't discuss 5 day forecasts and such on here, this board would cease to exist so not sure what your point is ?? One logical conclusion one can take from Arctic Thunder's post regarding strength of HPs crossing the Canadian border and impacts in the southern plains, is that if a model is forecasting XX strength crossing the Canadian Border and the subsequent forecasts don't match up....wouldn't that be reason to question the models downstream forecast ?

If it wasn't for me occasionally poking fun at you cold weather lovers then this thread would be quite dead most of the time. I have to stay in character. Portastorm and I had a nice lunch in Austin 4-5 years ago (or so), proof that we can get along as exact opposites.

[wxman57]

For those of you who want the warmth to come early.. Come down to Del Rio or Laredo in the Summer and see how much you like it. The longer it takes to get warmer the better as far as I am concerned.

I would love it. Back in September of 2000 Houston hit 109 degrees. As I walked out to my car after work around 4pm I thought "this is almost starting to feel warm enough". I've gone biking with the temperature over 100 degrees. Just need to drink more water.

[Cpv17]

For those of you who want the warmth to come early.. Come down to Del Rio or Laredo in the Summer and see how much you like it. The longer it takes to get warmer the better as far as I am concerned.

I would love it. Back in September of 2000 Houston hit 109 degrees. As I walked out to my car after work around 4pm I thought "this is almost starting to feel warm enough". I've gone biking with the temperature over 100 degrees. Just need to drink more water.

You’re nuts lol

[DFW Stormwatcher]

For those of you who want the warmth to come early.. Come down to Del Rio or Laredo in the Summer and see how much you like it. The longer it takes to get warmer the better as far as I am concerned.

Okay, I respect what you’re saying there but Wxman 57 already lives in the mosquito infested humidity ridden pit of hell that is Houston. I’m sorry to say that the dry heat in Del Rio doesn’t stand a chance against that hot misery in Houston:). I’m not a heat lover in any case but I grew up in the Houston area and am thankful every summer to not be living in that sauna anymore. People in DFW like to gripe about humidity in the summer, but they obviously don’t visit Houston very often:). The temp in Houston may say 90-95 degrees down there but the heat index usually runs about what? 140 degrees.

[Cerlin]

For those of you who want the warmth to come early.. Come down to Del Rio or Laredo in the Summer and see how much you like it. The longer it takes to get warmer the better as far as I am concerned.

Okay, I respect what you’re saying there but Wxman 57 already lives in the mosquito infested humidity ridden pit of hell that is Houston. I’m sorry to say that the dry heat in Del Rio doesn’t stand a chance against that hot misery in Houston:). I’m not a heat lover in any case but I grew up in the Houston area and am thankful every summer to not be living in that sauna anymore. People in DFW like to gripe about humidity in the summer, but they obviously don’t visit Houston very often:). The temp in Houston may say 90-95 degrees down there but the heat index usually runs about what? 140 degrees.

Houston is the most humid place I’ve ever been to and I’ve been to Belize.

[weatherdude1108]

For those of you who want the warmth to come early.. Come down to Del Rio or Laredo in the Summer and see how much you like it. The longer it takes to get warmer the better as far as I am concerned.

I would love it. Back in September of 2000 Houston hit 109 degrees. As I walked out to my car after work around 4pm I thought "this is almost starting to feel warm enough". I've gone biking with the temperature over 100 degrees. Just need to drink more water.

That was the year I was in San Antonio. It got to 112 I think(?). I was at the River Walk, and proposed to my then girlfriend. Was dressed up in long-sleeve shirt and khakis just because of the occasion. I thought I was gunna pass out. You'd have loved it though!

[South Texas Storms]

It's sad that wxman57 has turned the Texas Winter forum into folks talking about how hot it gets in the state...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Really Really disappointed in this winter. Perhaps we can have a discussion of where it all went wrong lol.

No Greenland blocking despite low solar.
Was the Pacific warm enough in the 3.4 region?
Warm pool vanished. What else?

[Yukon Cornelius]

Back to winter...so far this winter up this way really hasn’t been too bad. 2 snow events, one around an inch and one in the 2-3” range, a few different nights with flurries. Maybe I’m wrong but I feel like we’ve had more nights 32 or below or very close to than we’ve had above freezing. Winter started early this year which was really nice for a change. Although we did make it down to 17.1F, I was really hoping for another single digit low to make it three years in a row. Like others, I’m still holding out for one last hurrah and a few more weeks of cooler weather. When your day is spent 90% outside 100+ temps are miserable.

[Tireman4]

For those of you who want the warmth to come early.. Come down to Del Rio or Laredo in the Summer and see how much you like it. The longer it takes to get warmer the better as far as I am concerned.

I would love it. Back in September of 2000 Houston hit 109 degrees. As I walked out to my car after work around 4pm I thought "this is almost starting to feel warm enough". I've gone biking with the temperature over 100 degrees. Just need to drink more water.

Wait a minute. Wait just a doggone minute here. Now, I know there are newbies here that do not know the "Whole" story of the High Pressure Ridge of Death in 2011, but you said ( I am paraphrasing here) "Maybe the thermostat was a bit too high that year". In Houston, the average high was 101 degrees...in August....

[Cpv17]

Back to winter...so far this winter up this way really hasn’t been too bad. 2 snow events, one around an inch and one in the 2-3” range, a few different nights with flurries. Maybe I’m wrong but I feel like we’ve had more nights 32 or below or very close to than we’ve had above freezing. Winter started early this year which was really nice for a change. Although we did make it down to 17.1F, I was really hoping for another single digit low to make it three years in a row. Like others, I’m still holding out for one last hurrah and a few more weeks of cooler weather. When your day is spent 90% outside 100+ temps are miserable.

You also live in the falls (I believe) which is one of the colder places in Texas lol it’s easy to get cold and winter wx up there compared to most other places in the state.