Texas Winter 2018-2019

[orangeblood]

GFS and its ensembles are beginning to trend back towards what it was showing several days ago...a deeper/further south system into Texas, this also allows for a stronger frontal passage and more precip under the right front quadrant of the digging trough! GEFS has several members showing an intense band of frozen precip breaking out Tuesday into Wednesday from Abilene to Wichita Falls, still way too early to know where/if this band will materialize but a good trend nonetheless!

Also, both GFS and Euro showing a 1040 HP crossing the Canadian border late Sunday night!

http://i64.tinypic.com/2hodb9j.jpg

Hm...models show it in long range, drop it in mid range, and then start to show it again...where have I seen this before?

haha it's the GFS MO! Even though Euro isn't there at the surface quite yet, it appears to be trending towards the GFS

[wxman57]

Models are suggesting at least some winter weather for north TX (Panhandle down to Abilene) next Tuesday. GFS (and FV3-GFS is similar) sounding for the DFW area indicates quite a significant warm nose aloft, but sub-freezing air around 1000-1500 ft up and above-freezing at the surface. That's suggestive of sleet during the day Tuesday. In order to get snow into the DFW area, you'd need considerable cooling between 3000-10,000 ft up, where the temperature is predicted to be in the lower 40s. Sleet is quite possible, though. Still looks like much less of a winter weather event than the last one.

[Portastorm]

Meh, I’m waiting until tomorrow to look at the models as a professional meteorologist I know said that was the way to go.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are suggesting at least some winter weather for north TX (Panhandle down to Abilene) next Tuesday. GFS (and FV3-GFS is similar) sounding for the DFW area indicates quite a significant warm nose aloft, but sub-freezing air around 1000-1500 ft up and above-freezing at the surface. That's suggestive of sleet during the day Tuesday. In order to get snow into the DFW area, you'd need considerable cooling between 3000-10,000 ft up, where the temperature is predicted to be in the lower 40s. Sleet is quite possible, though. Still looks like much less of a winter weather event than the last one.

Umm, the last event was minor sleet and freezing rain event. This would likely be more of the same though if the precip shield is far enough west then snow is more likely west of I-35. Lots to still be worked out.

[hriverajr]

Off topic...but next time you come to DRT Portastorm...we should have lunch.

[wxman57]

Models are suggesting at least some winter weather for north TX (Panhandle down to Abilene) next Tuesday. GFS (and FV3-GFS is similar) sounding for the DFW area indicates quite a significant warm nose aloft, but sub-freezing air around 1000-1500 ft up and above-freezing at the surface. That's suggestive of sleet during the day Tuesday. In order to get snow into the DFW area, you'd need considerable cooling between 3000-10,000 ft up, where the temperature is predicted to be in the lower 40s. Sleet is quite possible, though. Still looks like much less of a winter weather event than the last one.

Umm, the last event was minor sleet and freezing rain event. This would likely be more of the same though if the precip shield is far enough west then snow is more likely west of I-35. Lots to still be worked out.

The last event was quite significant in central Texas (not DFW). Significant amounts of snow pellets and sleet, even down to Austin. We even got some winter weather in north Houston. This event may be less and farther north.

[nathanc1969]

San Angelo NWS mentioning rain mixed that s word that we never get for next tuesday morning. IF this were to occur it would be after weekend highs in the mid 80's. My mother used to call this a weather breeder.

[Tammie]

Really exceptional article! Euro Vs. GFS: The Weather Model Wars Take A New Turn In March
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallsh ... ssion=true

[BrokenGlass]

Next week in Dallas, because of course.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[wxman57]

Even the often too warm GFS indicates that the high in the D-FW area next Tuesday will remain in the 30s. NWS is being a bit cautious with the predicted highs in the mid 40s. Given how badly the models have performed beyond 2-3 days, I guess that's understandable. Here's a meteogram off the 6Z GFS. I think temps could easily hover in the 34-38 degree range there on Tuesday.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

My .02 on the climate change talk and flowers blooming etc. I think we focus too much on what's happening now instead of the bigger picture. Things have changed, yes, i 100% agree. I think alot of this climate change is due to the Arctic's changes. It is extremely volatile, which has a major factor that can affect it drastically. Water. Warmer water flowing into the Arctic regions can throw a massive wrench in things. Urban heat island effect is also a factor in our environment. Major factors.

On the contrary, Antarctica a few years back had its highest sea ice year ever during its winter, while the Arctic was the opposite.
Here in SE Texas, we have had more snow events in the last 10 years than its previous 20 years before that.

Alot alot alot of research needs to be done, more than what we just see or hear. We cant be shallow on this subject at all. There is alot, potentially at stake.

Sorry for going off subject.

As far as the poll we are sort of taking, i dont think we should have another forum for detailed analysis. I enjoy the analysis that is in this thread, and like talking about it while in here. I dont feel like this thread is as cluttered as some others feel like it may be.

[wxman57]

6Z GFS meteogram for Houston indicates mid 40s and rain next Tuesday. Good biking weather tomorrow and Saturday, though. I'm taking a comp day tomorrow (for working the holidays and weekends) so that I can hit the bike trail before next week's cold arrives.

[Ralph's Weather]

Models are suggesting at least some winter weather for north TX (Panhandle down to Abilene) next Tuesday. GFS (and FV3-GFS is similar) sounding for the DFW area indicates quite a significant warm nose aloft, but sub-freezing air around 1000-1500 ft up and above-freezing at the surface. That's suggestive of sleet during the day Tuesday. In order to get snow into the DFW area, you'd need considerable cooling between 3000-10,000 ft up, where the temperature is predicted to be in the lower 40s. Sleet is quite possible, though. Still looks like much less of a winter weather event than the last one.

Umm, the last event was minor sleet and freezing rain event. This would likely be more of the same though if the precip shield is far enough west then snow is more likely west of I-35. Lots to still be worked out.

The last event was quite significant in central Texas (not DFW). Significant amounts of snow pellets and sleet, even down to Austin. We even got some winter weather in north Houston. This event may be less and farther north.

Up in E TX we had some brief heavy freezing rain and brief sleet accumulations with temps falling into the upper 20s under the heavy showers, but I would not call that significant as it had no significant societal impacts besides a few icy bridges.

[wxman57]

Well, this is interesting. 12Z GFS has a 1060+ mb high dropping into Montana. That's higher than 1040mb. However, it's the 384-hr panel. Previous run had no real high center there at all at the same time.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019021412/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_52.png

[harp]

Crickets in here after that 12Z run....

[Brent]

Crickets in here after that 12Z run....

I think most of us will believe it when we see it

Such a great February

Much warmer than average temperatures can be expected today as
breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies allow for
efficient warming throughout the day. In fact, if the high
temperature reaches 80 degrees at DFW airport, this would tie for
the second warmest Valentine`s Day on record.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Knock on wood, the 12z GFS and FV3 look decent up here.

[wxman57]

12Z EC is warmer than the GFS for Texas. Highs in the mid-40s in DFW on Tuesday. Winter precip confined to the panhandle.

[CaptinCrunch]

Crickets in here after that 12Z run....

I think most of us will believe it when we see it

Such a great February

Much warmer than average temperatures can be expected today as
breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies allow for
efficient warming throughout the day. In fact, if the high
temperature reaches 80 degrees at DFW airport, this would tie for
the second warmest Valentine`s Day on record.

Winter 2018-2019 will go down as "The Winter that was always 10 days out"

[Brent]

Crickets in here after that 12Z run....

I think most of us will believe it when we see it

Such a great February

Much warmer than average temperatures can be expected today as
breezy southwesterly winds and mostly clear skies allow for
efficient warming throughout the day. In fact, if the high
temperature reaches 80 degrees at DFW airport, this would tie for
the second warmest Valentine`s Day on record.

Winter 2018-2019 will go down as "The Winter that was always 10 days out"

that and the almost winter... oh you almost had it...