WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

12z GFS has a very strong Typhoon lashing on the Marianas but is still early.

[euro6208]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 2.6N 165.7E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 20.02.2019 2.6N 165.7E WEAK

12UTC 20.02.2019 4.4N 166.6E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

[euro6208]

A tropical disturbance from yesterday remains southeast of Majuro
near 2N173E, and scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are seen northeast of the disturbance and beyond 200
miles east-southeast of Majuro. A near-equatorial trough from
southwest of Pohnpei and Kosrae extends eastward to the disturbance,
and dry moderate to fresh trade winds persist over both locations.
Both ECMWF and GFS indicate the potential for torrential rainfall
and strong surface winds along the northwest to northeast periphery
of the disturbance especially near Kosrae and Pohnpei starting in 48
hours and beyond. At 700mb, the disturbance takes a west-northwest
motion after existing south of the Marshall Islands. Apparently,
unstable and wet weather conditions will be more pronounced west of
Majuro after Saturday night. For this reason, we will monitor this
situation closely and provide updates.

[euro6208]

A different look at the globals. Something will come out of this but where it will go remains to be seen. The Marianas looks like the target...

[TyphoonNara]

GFS is seeing a 905mb typhoon affecting Mariana Islands.

[Hayabusa]

It's hard to trust what the models are saying... considering their performance since after Yutu and the recent 01W. That said if hypothetically speaking this 92W becomes a typhoon through cat 5, 2015's record would be broken for the strongest February WPAC storm, which it took 45 years to be broken (1970 Typhoon Nancy) by 2015's Higos. What does that mean? It would took only 4 years since the new record to be broken again compared to 45 years... man made global warming is accelerating tropical cyclone records.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

Quite the twins it will be. GFS also forecast SPAC's OMA to peak quite strong. 900mb compared to this future storm, 902 mb...Let's see if it materializes.

[TyphoonNara]

The entire basin seems to be badly sheared. Let's see if this will hinder the development of 92W.

[1900hurricane]

This is still several days out, but it does appear that a weak circulation may be establishing itself five days from now in the vicinity of 5ºN, 160ºE. Guidance does seem to be fairly consistent with it over the past several runs (ECMWF runs below valid at 00Z February 20th), so that is something. February is climatologically as unfavorable as it gets in the WPac, but with the near-equatorial trough setup guidance is depicting, this may have a legitimate shot at development.

[TyphoonNara]

EURO is forecasting the system to deepen to 961mb, the strongest so far.



Considering the fact that unlike 01W, EURO and GFS are in general agreement on the system's intensity. So 92W may have a greater chance of materializing into something significant.

[euro6208]

92W INVEST 190215 0600 3.5N 170.8E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.02.2019



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 4.0N 163.1E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 20.02.2019 4.0N 163.1E WEAK

12UTC 20.02.2019 4.9N 162.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 21.02.2019 6.3N 163.2E MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

[euro6208]

EURO is forecasting the system to deepen to 961mb, the strongest so far.



Considering the fact that unlike 01W, EURO and GFS are in general agreement on the system's intensity. So 92W may have a greater chance of materializing into something significant.

The Marianas under the gun. Also unlike 01W, this is way more support in the other globals.

[euro6208]

GFS trending more west. More threat to Yap than Guam.

[euro6208]

NWS doesn't like the models...

The dry pattern of moderate to fresh northeast winds and isolated
light showers will continue for the next week, with a slight
increase in winds after the weekend. Models are still playing with
a tropical cyclone development, but it is not considered likely
for reasons given below.

The models continue to develop a tropical cyclone from Invest 92W,
the disturbed weather in the Marshall Islands, but such an event
still seems unlikely. Satellite shows only disorganized weak
convection, and model winds indicate at least two centers--one south
of Kosrae and the other east of Majuro around 176E. The steady
development portrayed in the models seems very unlikely given strong
wind shear aloft emanating from the southern hemisphere and the
dry trade-wind regime is limiting available moisture. Thus, we
will continue to watch this situation, but it does not yet seem a
credible threat.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues to bomb this.

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF continues to develop.

[cycloneye]

NWS Guam a little more bullish.

A Tropical disturbance is centered near 5N170E, or south-southwest of
Majuro. ASCAT analysis shows a possible closed circulation with fresh
to strong east winds on the north side and weak west winds on the
south side. For now the deep convection is displaced, so development,
if any, will be slow. Nevertheless, this area bears watching as the
numerical weather prediction models have been favoring it. The model
runs have been trending farther south, which could reduce any threat
to the Marianas while simulatenously raising the threat for locations
in Micronesia.