#30 Postby euro6208 » Sat Feb 16, 2019 6:22 am
Invest 92W is still there in eastern Micronesia, with clouds and
showers across Kosrae east-northeastward into the Marshall Islands.
It is difficult to pinpoint a center, but the visible satellite loop
suggests a broad center east of Kosrae around 5N and 166E. Infra-red
satellite shows only limited convection mainly west of the center,
apparently being sheared to the west by upper-level winds. The models
all seem overly aggressive in developing this system, especially the
GFS, which produces a tropical storm by Tuesday morning south of
Pohnpei. But currently 92W is not well-organized, upper winds are
not particularly favorable, and soundings from Pohnpei and Kwajalein
show dry air in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. And from
a climatological point of view, February is the least likely month
for tropical cyclone development, especially as shown in the GFS.
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