Invest 92W looks somewhat better organized than 24 hours ago, but the
center is exposed, with the main mass of deep convection sheared out
northwest of the center. The center itself has drifted a bit south
since yesterday evening, and is currently near 2N 166E. The models
are still developing 92W over the next few days and moving it west
or west-northwest. The GFS is most aggressive, putting 92W about
100 miles SW of Guam next Sunday as a typhoon. The latest ECMWF also
has it passing SW of Guam on Sunday, but as a tropical storm to
within 200 miles. In the real world, 92W has moved little, is still
not favorably organized, and mid-to-upper level moisture remains
limited out west and northwest of 92W, where it will likely track
in the days ahead. Much uncertainty remains about the future of 92W,
and we will be watching closely for signs of better development over
the next few days. While February is not normally a good month for
typhoons to develop, it can happen, and remains a possibility in
this case.