Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Cerlin]

Even Vegas has snow for the 2nd time this season with another chance coming up in a few days. I hope we get a surprise soon.

Things like this make me ponder how bad our luck really is

[Snowflake7]

Well I'd be lying if I said I wasn't disappointed with the way the weather has been. Its like a woman going through menopause, hot, cold, happy, crying Is it safe to go ahead and hang up this "winter" LOL

[bubba hotep]

[dhweather]

1059 HP crossing Montana at 216 hr. Cold air doesnt slam down into the plains but it's something to watch

Just like before it's modeled to slide off to the east. The story of the winter.

The zonal flow, particularly across the southern half of the country, has really messed up what we largely thought would be a favorable winter for wintry precip. Send me some negatively tilted troughs and rain, we need it.

[Ntxw]

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/56012839/its-still-real-to-me-damnit.jpg

http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2019021812/dallas/nam_3hr_snow_acc_dallas_27.png

33F and rain . The Curse is real.

[dhweather]

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/56012839/its-still-real-to-me-damnit.jpg

http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2019021812/dallas/nam_3hr_snow_acc_dallas_27.png

33F and rain . The Curse is real.

It's been vicious. The last two Saturdays, I've taken my son to his basketball game in Rockwall, it's been 33 with light rain, and 34 with light rain.

[bubba hotep]

Once again, the long range tea leaves pointed to -NAO and once again they failed. It is now looking likely that will make it out of DJF without any significant period of favorable HLB. Why might we still hold out some hope here in Texas? We tend to score sometimes when the PNA transitions from - to neutral in conjunction with an EPO dive. So the end of Feb into early March looks like another possible window. The main risk with this period is that we see a transient "nina" look and up with a big positive tilted trough with a dry bitter cold dump.

[bubba hotep]

Just a reminder, it wasn't just the "weenies" on this board pulling for a cold and stormy winter that busted. Most everyone went with some variation of mild December and then a rocking Jan & Feb. It looks most of the nation will end up above normal for the DJF period once we roll this forward for the final 15 days. Many areas are well below their avg snowfall, so it's just not Texas that is suffering in what was expected to be an epic winter.

[bubba hotep]

Maybe we can get this to pull back West a bit and get some action into Texas, otherwise I know that the chasers will be thrilled to head to Arkansas lol

[Yukon Cornelius]

They’ve treated the overpasses up here. Now it’s certain that it will be just a cold rain.

[Brent]

https://memegenerator.net/img/instances/56012839/its-still-real-to-me-damnit.jpg

http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2019021812/dallas/nam_3hr_snow_acc_dallas_27.png

Another model that needs to go

[rwfromkansas]

This snow drought has affected this region of the country in general. Just saw on FB the last 4" snow in Wichita, Kansas (south-central area) was in 2014.

My parents north of there have had a good snowfall year, with almost normal snow for the first time in years. But, Wichita hasn't had as much, only 5 inches so far this year. Oklahoma was screwed multiple times as well this year.

[orangeblood]

Just a reminder, it wasn't just the "weenies" on this board pulling for a cold and stormy winter that busted. Most everyone went with some variation of mild December and then a rocking Jan & Feb. It looks most of the nation will end up above normal for the DJF period once we roll this forward for the final 15 days. Many areas are well below their avg snowfall, so it's just not Texas that is suffering in what was expected to be an epic winter.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DzsrB0GWkAA2ZLq.png

A truly puzzling winter to say the least...matching up temps up to this point with analogs, you almost get the exact opposite look when comparing SST's, Stratwarm, the MJO, low solar - you name it!

Late Feb/Early March is probably our last shot!

[bubba hotep]

One thing lost with this system is that it has trended back wetter for DFW. At one point, the models had totally dried out DFW but now it looks like we could see 1"+ with this and that would get DFW back up normal or just above normal rainfall for the month.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro would send the mother load down. That kind of HL signature is associated with some historic Texas cold snaps.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro would send the mother load down. That kind of HL signature is associated with some historic Texas cold snaps.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019021812/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

I hope this is the case with qpf. Daily SOI is now over -35. We have spent almost two weeks in deep negatives. A betting man would go with a wet March.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro would send the mother load down. That kind of HL signature is associated with some historic Texas cold snaps.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019021812/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

I hope this is the case with qpf. Daily SOI is now over -35. We have spent almost two weeks in deep negatives. A betting man would go with a wet March.

I agree. Most of the long-range signals and analogs are indicating that we will see a wet spring. I really hope so because it's been pretty dry around here lately. We are about to enter into our most important time of the year for rainfall in my opinion. It would really help our chances to have a cooler and wetter summer if we have an active spring. That would help to keep the heat ridge away for as long as possible. And everyone (well, almost everyone), wants that!

[SoupBone]

12z Euro would send the mother load down. That kind of HL signature is associated with some historic Texas cold snaps.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019021812/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_11.png

I hope this is the case with qpf. Daily SOI is now over -35. We have spent almost two weeks in deep negatives. A betting man would go with a wet March.

I agree. Most of the long-range signals and analogs are indicating that we will see a wet spring. I really hope so because it's been pretty dry around here lately. We are about to enter into our most important time of the year for rainfall in my opinion. It would really help our chances to have a cooler and wetter summer if we have an active spring. That would help to keep the heat ridge away for as long as possible. And everyone (well, almost everyone), wants that!

Heat Ridge vs. Hurricanes....hmmmm

[wxman57]

I'm not sure what the NAM is smoking, but there won't likely be any snow on the ground in D-FW tomorrow. May be a chance of some cold rain with a slight chance of a sleet pellet. As I've been saying - this "winter weather event" is looking less significant than last week (a lot less significant, and last week's event wasn't very significant). May be time to pack it up, my oak tree is budding out and my azaleas will be flowering in a week or two. Nature is telling us that winter is over for NE and SE TX.

[perk]

I'm not sure what the NAM is smoking, but there won't likely be any snow on the ground in D-FW tomorrow. May be a chance of some cold rain with a slight chance of a sleet pellet. As I've been saying - this "winter weather event" is looking less significant than last week (a lot less significant, and last week's event wasn't very significant). May be time to pack it up, my oak tree is budding out and my azaleas will be flowering in a week or two. Nature is telling us that winter is over for NE and SE TX.

I’ve lived in southeast Texas for 62 years and many times my azaleas has gotten it wrong.I would not put my plant covers away just yet.