Texas Winter 2018-2019

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wet bulb temp is well north of the DFW area. Better safe than sorry i guess. Looks like convective storms at 35 lol.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like a solid HP forming in NW canada in the next ten days. A strong Low in the bering Sea kicks off the process for this. Unfortunately, subtropical high is expected to flex its muscles and keep the HP to the north. Warm 1+2 i think is to blame for this guy. What a frustrating winter. Based on what was expected and how it played out, might be one of the most disappointing winters I can remember.

If you think about it, the opposite of last year though. I thought last year would be terrible for SE Texas but it was excellent.

[Cerlin]

I didn’t get any hopes up for this being an event and it served me well because nothing happened. Can’t be disappointed if you get what you expect!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Drizzle starting, temp at 33. I guess we’ll see..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Drizzle starting, temp at 33. I guess we’ll see..

850mb is well above freezing, 925 is below freezing. If the temp moves, it will be 1 or 2 degrees at most. Unlikely to move though.

[orangeblood]

Looks like a solid HP forming in NW canada in the next ten days. A strong Low in the bering Sea kicks off the process for this. Unfortunately, subtropical high is expected to flex its muscles and keep the HP to the north. Warm 1+2 i think is to blame for this guy. What a frustrating winter. Based on what was expected and how it played out, might be one of the most disappointing winters I can remember.

If you think about it, the opposite of last year though. I thought last year would be terrible for SE Texas but it was excellent.

Throw the GFS Operational out the window past 5 days...complete garbage with its MJO forecast. There is no way you'll see height rises like that across the southern US when 1) the MJO swings into Phase 1-2 and 2) A severe EPO tank. Euro looks much more realistic and has been more accurate with its MJO projections! FEB/March Phase 1&2 are as good as we can ask for.

GFS is embarrassing with its long range forecasts

[wxman57]

Drizzle starting, temp at 33. I guess we’ll see..

GFS sounding forecast indicates increasing warm air aloft through the afternoon hours, but with a shallow sub-freezing layer just above the ground. That's a sounding for sleet.

[Brent]

Okay now can we move onto spring

[funster]

I see more cold rain is happening today. Looks like some stronger convection building south of DFW.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like a solid HP forming in NW canada in the next ten days. A strong Low in the bering Sea kicks off the process for this. Unfortunately, subtropical high is expected to flex its muscles and keep the HP to the north. Warm 1+2 i think is to blame for this guy. What a frustrating winter. Based on what was expected and how it played out, might be one of the most disappointing winters I can remember.

If you think about it, the opposite of last year though. I thought last year would be terrible for SE Texas but it was excellent.

Throw the GFS Operational out the window past 5 days...complete garbage with its MJO forecast. There is no way you'll see height rises like that across the southern US when 1) the MJO swings into Phase 1-2 and 2) A severe EPO tank. Euro looks much more realistic and has been more accurate with its MJO projections! FEB/March Phase 1&2 are as good as we can ask for.

GFS is embarrassing with its long range forecasts

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/MarchPhase1gt1%20500mb.gif

Nice catch, this is why you're the professional. I didnt so all of my homework. Based off of my MJO cheat sheet from http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... 00reg.html it shows a trough centered east of us with no massive sub tropical high.

[Ntxw]

-43 for the daily SOI. That is a huge number. We do have a SPAC cyclone but there has been consistent negative SOI for almost 2 weeks now.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Drizzle starting, temp at 33. I guess we’ll see..

GFS sounding forecast indicates increasing warm air aloft through the afternoon hours, but with a shallow sub-freezing layer just above the ground. That's a sounding for sleet.

Frozen or slightly frozen, I’ll take it.

[orangeblood]

-43 for the daily SOI. That is a huge number. We do have a SPAC cyclone but there has been consistent negative SOI for almost 2 weeks now.

Yes it is...something big could be brewing around the 1st of March

[missygirl810]

I SWEAR it is sleeting here in Celeste even though the radar is all rain...

[CaptinCrunch]

Today is a stay home by the Fireplace whisky drinking kind of day

[wxman57]

I SWEAR it is sleeting here in Celeste even though the radar is all rain...

Judging by the sounding for your area, there is a shallow sub-freezing layer not far above the ground over Celeste. Above that is rain in the above-freezing air. It's quite possible that the radar is looking well above that sleet layer (due to curvature of the Earth), so it would be seeing only the rain. Good chance you were seeing sleet.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It appears that our chance of seeing anything frozen today is becoming more and more slight. The temp has began to slowly rise. We dropped down to 32 for an hour or so and have risen up to 34-35 within the last couple of hours.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a solid HP forming in NW canada in the next ten days. A strong Low in the bering Sea kicks off the process for this. Unfortunately, subtropical high is expected to flex its muscles and keep the HP to the north. Warm 1+2 i think is to blame for this guy. What a frustrating winter. Based on what was expected and how it played out, might be one of the most disappointing winters I can remember.

If you think about it, the opposite of last year though. I thought last year would be terrible for SE Texas but it was excellent.

Throw the GFS Operational out the window past 5 days...complete garbage with its MJO forecast. There is no way you'll see height rises like that across the southern US when 1) the MJO swings into Phase 1-2 and 2) A severe EPO tank. Euro looks much more realistic and has been more accurate with its MJO projections! FEB/March Phase 1&2 are as good as we can ask for.

GFS is embarrassing with its long range forecasts

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO/MarchPhase1gt1500mb.gif

One thing I've noticed this winter is that the various MJO composites have missed the NPAC setup and we've constantly had higher (lower) heights than what would be expected. This has translated downstream into the pattern over N. America. We've got about 3 weeks before climo shuts the door on this winter.

[weatherdude1108]

Today is a stay home by the Fireplace whisky drinking kind of day

It's chilly out there! Drizzly/misty with a breeze in the low 40s down in these parts. Wasted cold, except the moisture itself is good. Miserable to stand out in for a long period of time. But I'll take it over the Texas Summer any day!

[Cpv17]

I don’t recall seeing this from the CPC the whole winter.