Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Brent]

Don't worry Texans, it will snow in Miami next.....MGC

The way this winter is going i wouldnt rule it out

[Cpv17]

Well I see the GFS is back with a 1055+mb high with the cold aimed at the central/southern plains. We’ll see.

[Brent]

0z GFS for DFW 84 next Friday

25 the following Monday

[Cpv17]

0z GFS for DFW 84 next Friday

25 the following Monday

Looks like the cold fizzles out once it reaches Texas though.

[Brent]

Likely our last chance

[gpsnowman]

The rain once again has blown up.and intensified east of DFW.

[opticsguy]

Is there an FV3 meteogram generator out there?

[gpsnowman]

The front is through leaving sunny skies with a cool wind. It is going to be a pleasant day today.

[wxman57]

Here it comes, D-FW snow fans! Only 10 days out - March 5. GFS even has a real snow profile on the sounding over D-FW. No warm nose aloft this time. OK, the GFS shows no snow accumulations in Texas, and the GFS is predicting only a brief changeover to snow as the precip ends (with surface temps 35), but it does indicate snowflakes.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019022306/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_41.png

[Ntxw]

Is there an FV3 meteogram generator out there?

I don't think it is available pre-made. Mostly still in experimental stages but should be overtaking the GFS soon. I'm sure one could write a program to pull off of raw data though.



In other news, very strong winds today out of the southwest from the strong upper low creating a blizzard in Kansas. Our eyes are turned to the first few days of March for signs of one last punch of old man winter. We are still planning on moving over to the Spring thread on March 1st.

NOTE

IF and IF there is a snow or ice event expected then the mods will collectively make a decision if we want to keep posting here in lieu of the spring thread for just the event. However going by the past several years we'll likely just move on over fully to the Texas Spring Thread.

[rwfromkansas]

Hope this rain east of us thing doesn’t continue into severe weather season or it will suck, too.

[Ntxw]

Hope this rain east of us thing doesn’t continue into severe weather season or it will suck, too.

Since 2012 we have category been in decline for both Tornado and Severe weather overall. There have been singular anomalies (such as 2015 FW tornado region count being highest) and certain hail storms but the numbers have been on the decrease. In return, wetter than normal months, top 5 or top 3 months have been on the increase. For example Sept/October 2018 was the wettest back to back months in DFW History. And basically at least one month of the year we have seen a "Top 5" wettest month in there somewhere since 2015.

Some example of extreme rainfall months of late.

May/October/November 2015
Summer 2016 almost top 10 wettest
June 2017 (summer 2017 is in top 10 wettest)
February/September/October 2018 are top or near top wettest for respective months.

For as dry as 2008-2012 was 2015-2018 has been equally as wet. Two very diverging extremes. Ironically during the dry period we had a LOT of snow and during the wet period very little. This shows you that warmer air holds a lot more water. So when looking at long term trends, if you want a lot of rain you'll probably end up with very little snow.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Warm windy Saturday on tap for today. Winds are forecasted to gust over 60 mph. The last I saw the high is forecasted at 65 F but with a low tonight of 28 F.

[gboudx]

I could go for a wet Spring that doesn’t include severe weather. Pay for a new roof and car damage just 1 time and you’ll never want to see it again. Well, at least in my case.

[Haris]

I got a new weather station so I dont want any big hailers!

I'd be totally fine with a spring like fall 2018!

No severe weather but tons of heavy rains! Perfect!

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro and Canadian are indicating the potential for a winter storm across the northern half of the state next weekend associated with the next blast of cold air. Certainly something to monitor, and likely our last chance for frozen precip this winter as many have mentioned.

[Cpv17]

The cold looks to be aimed at Texas this time around, but it almost fizzles out when it gets here. The models and the CPC are in agreement on that.

[Haris]

[weatherdude1108]

Check out the humidity! 13%(?) Was 98% this morning. Rarely ever this low here.
A large cardboard box hit the car behind us in line at a Bush's from the wind!
May as well be Lubbock or El Paso!

[Yukon Cornelius]

You don’t realize how much you hate wind until you’re dealing with sustained 45 mph wind and gusts of 60-65 all day.