ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Ventrice Twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098223304832442369
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098223818500423681
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098224067461689350
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098223304832442369
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098223818500423681
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098224067461689350
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Atmospheric coupling continues to increase also.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098187782047088640
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098187782047088640
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Re: ENSO Updates
Quick question, does anyone have a good link for data on the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI)?
I have a good link for the SOI, but I'm having trouble finding as much info for the EQSOI.
I have a good link for the SOI, but I'm having trouble finding as much info for the EQSOI.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Looking forward, Euro bull whips the MJO straight into phase 3 by the end of the first week of March and most likely phase 4 and 5 in the middle of week 2 of March. So there will likely be a good amount of rising motion over the Indian and sinking motion across the Pacific which means the SOI will rise, and of course we'll likely see trade bursts. How long the MJO spends time in phase 3/4/5 is key, because if it stays and amplifies there it could stunt El Nino growth as we saw last year and in 2014.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
Eric Webb is bullish again, but we'll see. March & April are critical months
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1098612887294218241
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1098612887294218241
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Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:Looking forward, Euro bull whips the MJO straight into phase 3 by the end of the first week of March and most likely phase 4 and 5 in the middle of week 2 of March. So there will likely be a good amount of rising motion over the Indian and sinking motion across the Pacific which means the SOI will rise, and of course we'll likely see trade bursts. How long the MJO spends time in phase 3/4/5 is key, because if it stays and amplifies there it could stunt El Nino growth as we saw last year and in 2014.
Yes it is the CFS...but it doesnt appear to believe El Nino will be stunted
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- CyclonicFury
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Re: ENSO Updates
While it does appear that El Niño is the most likely ENSO for summer/fall 2019, it will be hard for it to reach or top the strength of the 1997-98/2015-16 Niños.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
CyclonicFury wrote:While it does appear that El Niño is the most likely ENSO for summer/fall 2019, it will be hard for it to reach or top the strength of the 1997-98/2015-16 Niños.
Both those years had monster MJO amplification in phases 7/8 during March. We would need to see the same thing, and with the MJO looking to go through 3/4/5 during mid March, I'm not sure such a possibility exists. However every year is unique so there could be a few surprises or a even a bust.
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Re: ENSO Updates
WeatherEmperor wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Looking forward, Euro bull whips the MJO straight into phase 3 by the end of the first week of March and most likely phase 4 and 5 in the middle of week 2 of March. So there will likely be a good amount of rising motion over the Indian and sinking motion across the Pacific which means the SOI will rise, and of course we'll likely see trade bursts. How long the MJO spends time in phase 3/4/5 is key, because if it stays and amplifies there it could stunt El Nino growth as we saw last year and in 2014.
Yes it is the CFS...but it doesnt appear to believe El Nino will be stunted
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190222/c0e9e8ae1cf3d2b7b5ea44c9e25f6ecc.gif
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Heh
Very bullish
Just please get down back to neutral
Last time we had an el nino resulted in an unbearably hot summer
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
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Re: ENSO Updates
If 2019 becomes another Nino, Wutip is pretty classic cyclone included WWB as an early year signature oncoming Ninos are notorious for.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ENSO Updates
On this weeks update the central pacific continues to warm up while Nino 1+2 cools down.
Nino 3.4 +0.7C
Nino 4 +1.0C
Nino 3 +0.5C
Nino 1+2 +0.2C
Nino 3.4 +0.7C
Nino 4 +1.0C
Nino 3 +0.5C
Nino 1+2 +0.2C
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/25/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.7C / Niño 1+2 down to +0.2C
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/25/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.7C / Niño 1+2 down to +0.2C
What Ventrice is pointing out is very important development.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100051300669112321
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100051300669112321
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/25/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.7C / Niño 1+2 down to +0.2C
Past 3 frames of the subsurface shows the warm pool being reinforced over the WPAC and warm anomalies expanding and strengthening in the CPAC and EPAC.
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- NotSparta
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/25/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.7C / Niño 1+2 down to +0.2C
Kingarabian wrote:Past 3 frames of the subsurface shows the warm pool being reinforced over the WPAC and warm anomalies expanding and strengthening in the CPAC and EPAC.
https://i.imgur.com/as3LmGt.gif
Not seeing anything close to that on the buoys. Do we know which is more reliable?
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com
- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/25/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.7C / Niño 1+2 down to +0.2C
NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Past 3 frames of the subsurface shows the warm pool being reinforced over the WPAC and warm anomalies expanding and strengthening in the CPAC and EPAC.
https://i.imgur.com/as3LmGt.gif
Not seeing anything close to that on the buoys. Do we know which is more reliable?
These subsurface graphics are based on PENTAD which the CPC frequently uses in their discussions. Don't forget the buoys update on a regular basis but have a slightly lower resolution. I think the buoys will show this soon.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100761337586688000
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100761339113418753
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100761339113418753
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- cycloneye
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Re: ENSO Updates
Discussion about if El Niño is Modoki or not.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101083030108688384
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1101100222065926144
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101101826731061249
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101101952094621703
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1101103798687330305
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101083030108688384
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1101100222065926144
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101101826731061249
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101101952094621703
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1101103798687330305
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates
I think last week I said what could potentially stop another El Nino for 2019-2020 is for the MJO to have prolonged stays in phases 3/4/5 (which would promote strong easterlies over the CPAC/EPAC).
But the GFS, Euro, and CFS are reversing the MJO with some agreement that it will go back to the circle.
GFS:
ECMWF:
CFS:
But the GFS, Euro, and CFS are reversing the MJO with some agreement that it will go back to the circle.
GFS:
ECMWF:
CFS:
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